CERT vs EXAS Stock Comparison
Certara, Inc. vs Exact Sciences Corporation
CERT leads
CERT leads by 9 AIQ points, primarily on Value and Quality. Wall Street currently favors EXAS on target upside.
Fragile: 2 of 6 evidence groups support CERT, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Certara, Inc.
Exact Sciences Corporation
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors CERT over EXAS, 55 versus 46 as of Sep 5, 2026. CERT's advantage is driven primarily by stronger value and quality, while EXAS holds the stronger risk resilience profile. CERT also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors EXAS. 2 of 6 covered evidence groups favor CERT today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: only 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. CERT lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 9 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Certara, Inc. and Exact Sciences Corporation across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Compare CERT and EXAS against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Value30%53 vs 37CERT +16
- Risk Resilience15%54 vs 67EXAS +13
- Quality30%52 vs 44CERT +8
2 of 6 evidence groups favor CERT. CERT’s edge is concentrated in value and quality; EXAS keeps a meaningful risk resilience edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-04, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-03.
Largest factor move: Momentum -3
No new signals fired.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
CERT's lead narrowed by 1 AIQ points in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — CERT and EXAS both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
CERT (Certara, Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by value and quality.
EXAS (Exact Sciences Corporation): the counter-case, on risk resilience, fundamentals, technicals.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
CERTCERT on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value at 30% each.
Growth
EXASEXAS on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
CERTCERT on the peer-relative Value factor, by 16 points.
Momentum
EvenThe two are level on Momentum.
Lower downside
EXASEXAS on Risk Resilience, by 13 points.
Analyst upside
EXASEXAS on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors CERT, analyst targets favor EXAS. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | CERT | EXAS | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | -2.4% | +0.1% | EXAS has more room |
| Target dispersion | +6.5% | 0% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Hold | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 2 | 1 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
2 of 6 covered evidence groups favor CERT. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | CERT | 55 vs 46 |
| Fundamentals | EXASon balance | revenue growth -12.8% vs 3.2%; EPS growth -5.5% vs -3.5%; TTM ROE -6.7% vs -8.5%; gross margin 58.3% vs 69.7%; operating margin 1.9% vs -6.2% — EXAS takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | CERT | Value 53 vs 37 |
| Technicals | EXAS | Price vs 50-day 4.3% vs 1.8%; vs 200-day 10% vs 41.3% |
| Risk Resilience | EXAS | Risk Resilience 54 vs 67 |
| Analyst expectations | EXAS | Target upside -2.4% vs 0.1% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of CERT and EXAS and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 9 points.
- Only 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on CERT.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Apr 23 – Sep 4CERT lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 9 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- CERT +9
- 55 vs 46
- 7 sessions ago
- CERT +10
- 56 vs 46
- 30 sessions ago
- CERT +11
- 57 vs 46
- 90 sessions ago
- CERT +11
- 57 vs 46
The lead changed hands once in this window, most recently on May 11 when EXAS moved ahead of CERT.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
3 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (5.40%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
No active signals
CERT leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price and the AIQ Score both moved down over the latest session (price -2.34%, AIQ -1 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1EXAS closes the Value gap — currently 16 points behind, the largest single contributor to CERT's edge.
- 2EXAS generates a confirmed bullish trend signal it does not currently carry, such as Golden Cross Active or MACD Bullish Crossover.
- 3CERT's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 3 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
EXAS leads on balance| Metric | CERT | EXAS |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -12.8% | 3.2% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -5.5% | -3.5% |
| Gross margin | 58.3% | 69.7% |
| Operating margin | 1.9% | -6.2% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | -6.7% | -8.5% |
| Debt to equity | 0.3 | 1.05 |
Performance
EXAS leads 5 of 6 windows| Metric | CERT | EXAS |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -4.9% | 1.3% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -3.2% | 1.4% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 47.9% | 3.2% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 12.5% | 100.3% |
| Year to date | -9.9% | 3.3% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -24.4% | 133.5% |
Technicals
EXAS has the stronger structure| Metric | CERT | EXAS |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 48.9 | 74.1 |
| ADX (14) | 9.8 | 42.9 |
| Price vs 50-day | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Price vs 200-day | 10% | 41.3% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 40.6% | 4.2% |
Risk
EXAS is the more resilient| Metric | CERT | EXAS |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.73 | -0.03 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.24 | 3.01 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.29 | 6.01 |
| Max drawdown | -67.1% | -14.3% |
| Current drawdown | -41.6% | 0% |
| Annualized volatility | 59.9% | 44.1% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -5.5% | -1.9% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, CERT or EXAS?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, CERT is the stronger of the two as of Sep 5, 2026, scoring 55 against EXAS's 46. The edge comes from value and quality. EXAS is not without a case — it holds the better risk resilience profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is CERT or EXAS the better buy right now?
CERT carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 5, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: only 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor CERT over EXAS?
The composite weights Quality at 30%, Value at 30%, Momentum at 25% and Risk Resilience at 15%. CERT leads Value by 16 points; EXAS leads Risk Resilience by 13 points; CERT leads Quality by 8 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, CERT or EXAS?
Analyst price targets imply -2.4% upside for CERT and +0.1% for EXAS, so the Street currently favors EXAS. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors CERT. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, CERT or EXAS?
CERT is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. CERT on the peer-relative Value factor, by 16 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, CERT or EXAS?
EXAS on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, CERT or EXAS?
The two are level on Momentum. Momentum carries 25% of the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, CERT or EXAS?
EXAS is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. EXAS on Risk Resilience, by 13 points. The Risk Resilience factor weights 15% of the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is CERT more profitable than EXAS?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 58.3% vs 69.7%; operating margin 1.9% vs -6.2%; ttm roe -6.7% vs -8.5%. CERT leads on two measures and EXAS on one measure, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is CERT's lead over EXAS getting stronger or weaker?
CERT lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 9 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-04-23 and 2026-09-04. The lead has changed hands once in that window, most recently on 2026-05-11, when EXAS moved ahead of CERT.
What would change the CERT vs EXAS verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: EXAS closes the Value gap — currently 16 points behind, the largest single contributor to CERT's edge; EXAS generates a confirmed bullish trend signal it does not currently carry, such as Golden Cross Active or MACD Bullish Crossover; CERT's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 3 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about CERT and EXAS?
CERT: 3 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. EXAS: No active signals. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on CERT is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare CERT and EXAS with others
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality (30%), Value (30%), Momentum (25%) and Risk (15%). Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.