DLTR vs ELF Stock Comparison
Compare DLTR and ELF across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between DLTR and ELF?
DLTR leads the current stock comparison as Dollar Tree, Inc., with the clearest separation coming from value and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Dollar Tree, Inc. vs e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.
DLTR leads
DLTR leads by 5 AIQ points, primarily on Value and Risk Resilience.
Fragile: 4 of 6 evidence groups support DLTR, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Dollar Tree, Inc.
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors DLTR over ELF, 47 versus 42 as of Sep 11, 2026. DLTR's advantage is driven primarily by stronger value and risk resilience, while ELF holds the stronger momentum profile. DLTR also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor DLTR today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 5 points. DLTR lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 5 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Dollar Tree, Inc. and e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare DLTR and ELF against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Value52 vs 28DLTR +24
- Momentum33 vs 53ELF +20
- Risk Resilience39 vs 33DLTR +6
- Quality57 vs 53DLTR +4
4 of 6 evidence groups favor DLTR. DLTR’s edge is concentrated in value and risk resilience; ELF keeps a meaningful momentum edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-10, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-09.
Largest factor move: Momentum +2
No new signals fired.
Largest factor move: Momentum -6
No new signals fired.
DLTR's lead widened by 3 AIQ points in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — DLTR and ELF both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
DLTR (Dollar Tree, Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by value and risk resilience.
ELF (e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.): the counter-case, on momentum, fundamentals, technicals — but at materially higher volatility, 51.7% against 40%.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
DLTRDLTR on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
ELFELF on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
DLTRDLTR on the peer-relative Value factor, by 24 points.
Momentum
ELFELF on the Momentum factor, by 20 points.
Lower downside
DLTRDLTR on Risk Resilience, by 6 points.
Analyst upside
DLTRDLTR on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | DLTR | ELF | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +10.8% | -11.7% | DLTR has more room |
| Target dispersion | +57.3% | +85.3% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 14 | 11 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor DLTR. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | DLTR | 47 vs 42 |
| Fundamentals | ELFon balance | revenue growth -1.7% vs 6.7%; EPS growth 53.4% vs 234.5%; TTM ROE 45.6% vs 5.2%; gross margin 38.7% vs 74.4%; operating margin 10.7% vs 10.5% — ELF takes 3 of 4 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | DLTR | Value 52 vs 28 |
| Technicals | ELF | Price vs 50-day -7.1% vs 8.3%; vs 200-day 1.1% vs 25.2% |
| Risk Resilience | DLTR | Risk Resilience 39 vs 33 |
| Analyst expectations | DLTR | Target upside 10.8% vs -11.7% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of DLTR and ELF and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 5 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on DLTR.
How the comparison changed
119 daily snapshots · May 4 – Sep 10DLTR lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 5 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- DLTR +5
- 47 vs 42
- 7 sessions ago
- DLTR +5
- 55 vs 50
- 30 sessions ago
- DLTR +4
- 54 vs 50
- 90 sessions ago
- DLTR +5
- 54 vs 49
The lead changed hands 3 times in this window, most recently on Sep 1 when DLTR moved ahead of ELF.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
2 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (8.32%)
- BB Lower Band Breach — bullish, volatility, short horizon
- Keltner Channel Breakdown — bearish, volatility, short horizon
3 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (17.04%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
DLTR leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price is down while the AIQ Score moved up 1 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price -0.41%, AIQ +1 points).
Price is up while the AIQ Score moved down 2 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price +1.2%, AIQ -2 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1ELF closes the Value gap — currently 24 points behind, the largest single contributor to DLTR's edge.
- 2ELF generates a confirmed bullish trend signal it does not currently carry, such as MACD Bullish Crossover.
- 3DLTR's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 2 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
ELF leads on balance| Metric | DLTR | ELF |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -1.7% | 6.7% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 53.4% | 234.5% |
| Gross margin | 38.7% | 74.4% |
| Operating margin | 10.7% | 10.5% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 45.6% | 5.2% |
| Debt to equity | 2.24 | 0.79 |
Performance
ELF leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | DLTR | ELF |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -10% | -10.8% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -7.7% | 3.4% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 7.6% | 64.8% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 4.8% | 19.8% |
| Year to date | -3.5% | 25.9% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 19.4% | -30.6% |
Technicals
ELF has the stronger structure| Metric | DLTR | ELF |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 38 | 46.5 |
| ADX (14) | 23 | 41.4 |
| Price vs 50-day | -7.1% | 8.3% |
| Price vs 200-day | 1.1% | 25.2% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 40% | 51.7% |
Risk
DLTR is the more resilient| Metric | DLTR | ELF |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.79 | 1.82 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.61 | -0.25 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.23 | -0.28 |
| Max drawdown | -38.5% | -66.2% |
| Current drawdown | -16% | -34.7% |
| Annualized volatility | 41.7% | 67.1% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -3.9% | -5.8% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, DLTR or ELF?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, DLTR is the stronger of the two as of Sep 11, 2026, scoring 47 against ELF's 42. The edge comes from value and risk resilience. ELF is not without a case — it holds the better momentum profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is DLTR or ELF the better buy right now?
DLTR carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 11, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 4 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 5 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor DLTR over ELF?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. DLTR leads Value by 24 points; ELF leads Momentum by 20 points; DLTR leads Risk Resilience by 6 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, DLTR or ELF?
Analyst price targets imply +10.8% upside for DLTR and -11.7% for ELF, so the Street currently favors DLTR. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, DLTR or ELF?
DLTR is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. DLTR on the peer-relative Value factor, by 24 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, DLTR or ELF?
ELF on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, DLTR or ELF?
ELF on the Momentum factor, by 20 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, DLTR or ELF?
DLTR is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. DLTR on Risk Resilience, by 6 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is DLTR more profitable than ELF?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 38.7% vs 74.4%; operating margin 10.7% vs 10.5%; ttm roe 45.6% vs 5.2%. Each name leads on one measure, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is DLTR's lead over ELF getting stronger or weaker?
DLTR lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 5 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 119 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-05-04 and 2026-09-10. The lead has changed hands 3 times in that window, most recently on 2026-09-01, when DLTR moved ahead of ELF.
What would change the DLTR vs ELF verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: ELF closes the Value gap — currently 24 points behind, the largest single contributor to DLTR's edge; ELF generates a confirmed bullish trend signal it does not currently carry, such as MACD Bullish Crossover; DLTR's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 2 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about DLTR and ELF?
DLTR: 2 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. ELF: 3 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on DLTR is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On ELF it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare DLTR and ELF with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.