EXAS vs NTRA Stock Comparison
Exact Sciences Corporation vs Natera, Inc.
NTRA leads
NTRA leads by 6 AIQ points, primarily on Quality, but the lead has narrowed from 12 points over 30 sessions. Wall Street currently favors EXAS on target upside.
Fragile: 2 of 6 evidence groups support NTRA, its lead is narrowing, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Exact Sciences Corporation
Natera, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors NTRA over EXAS, 52 versus 46 as of Sep 5, 2026. NTRA's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality, while EXAS holds the stronger risk resilience profile. NTRA also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors EXAS. 2 of 6 covered evidence groups favor NTRA today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: only 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. NTRA lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 12 to 6 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Exact Sciences Corporation and Natera, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Compare EXAS and NTRA against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Quality30%44 vs 57NTRA +13
- Risk Resilience15%67 vs 63EXAS +4
- Value30%37 vs 34Even
2 of 6 evidence groups favor NTRA. NTRA’s edge is concentrated in quality; EXAS keeps a meaningful risk resilience edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-04, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-03.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
Largest factor move: Risk Resilience +9
No new signals fired.
NTRA's lead was unchanged in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — EXAS and NTRA both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
NTRA (Natera, Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality.
EXAS (Exact Sciences Corporation): the counter-case, on risk resilience, fundamentals, analyst expectations.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
NTRANTRA on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value at 30% each.
Growth
NTRANTRA on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
EvenThe two are level on Value.
Momentum
EvenThe two are level on Momentum.
Lower downside
EXASEXAS on Risk Resilience, by 4 points.
Analyst upside
EXASEXAS on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors NTRA, analyst targets favor EXAS. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | EXAS | NTRA | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +0.1% | -7.6% | EXAS has more room |
| Target dispersion | 0% | +51.1% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 1 | 14 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
2 of 6 covered evidence groups favor NTRA. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | NTRA | 46 vs 52 |
| Fundamentals | EXASon balance | revenue growth 3.2% vs 8.1%; EPS growth -3.5% vs 21.7%; TTM ROE -8.5% vs -11.7%; gross margin 69.7% vs 65.3%; operating margin -6.2% vs -10.7% — EXAS takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | Even | Value 37 vs 34 |
| Technicals | NTRA | Price vs 50-day 1.8% vs 12.3%; vs 200-day 41.3% vs 39.3% |
| Risk Resilience | EXAS | Risk Resilience 67 vs 63 |
| Analyst expectations | EXAS | Target upside 0.1% vs -7.6% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of EXAS and NTRA and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 6 points.
- Only 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader's advantage has been narrowing. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on NTRA.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Apr 23 – Sep 4NTRA lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 12 to 6 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- NTRA +6
- 46 vs 52
- 7 sessions ago
- NTRA +7
- 46 vs 53
- 30 sessions ago
- NTRA +12
- 46 vs 58
- 90 sessions ago
- NTRA +13
- 46 vs 59
The lead changed hands 8 times in this window, most recently on Jul 30 when NTRA moved ahead of EXAS.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
No active signals
3 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (24.03%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
NTRA leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +0.16%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1EXAS closes the Quality gap — currently 13 points behind, the largest single contributor to NTRA's edge.
- 2EXAS generates a confirmed bullish trend signal it does not currently carry, such as Golden Cross Active or MACD Bullish Crossover.
- 3NTRA's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 3 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4The narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 6 points over 30 sessions, and a further 6-point move would eliminate NTRA's advantage entirely.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
EXAS leads on balance| Metric | EXAS | NTRA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 3.2% | 8.1% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -3.5% | 21.7% |
| Gross margin | 69.7% | 65.3% |
| Operating margin | -6.2% | -10.7% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | -8.5% | -11.7% |
| Debt to equity | 1.05 | 0.13 |
Performance
Split across windows| Metric | EXAS | NTRA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | 1.4% | 1.9% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 3.2% | 52.4% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 100.3% | 65.6% |
| Year to date | 3.3% | 43.3% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 133.5% | 95.9% |
Technicals
NTRA has the stronger structure| Metric | EXAS | NTRA |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 74.1 | 60.9 |
| ADX (14) | 42.9 | 38.2 |
| Price vs 50-day | 1.8% | 12.3% |
| Price vs 200-day | 41.3% | 39.3% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 4.2% | 28.5% |
Risk
EXAS is the more resilient| Metric | EXAS | NTRA |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.03 | 1.27 |
| Sharpe ratio | 3.01 | 1.57 |
| Sortino ratio | 6.01 | 2.53 |
| Max drawdown | -14.3% | -28.2% |
| Current drawdown | 0% | -3.1% |
| Annualized volatility | 44.1% | 48.3% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -1.9% | -3.8% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, EXAS or NTRA?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, NTRA is the stronger of the two as of Sep 5, 2026, scoring 52 against EXAS's 46. The edge comes from quality. EXAS is not without a case — it holds the better risk resilience profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is EXAS or NTRA the better buy right now?
NTRA carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 5, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: only 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor NTRA over EXAS?
The composite weights Quality at 30%, Value at 30%, Momentum at 25% and Risk Resilience at 15%. NTRA leads Quality by 13 points; EXAS leads Risk Resilience by 4 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, EXAS or NTRA?
Analyst price targets imply +0.1% upside for EXAS and -7.6% for NTRA, so the Street currently favors EXAS. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors NTRA. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, EXAS or NTRA?
Neither name separates on the peer-relative Value factor. The two are level on Value. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, EXAS or NTRA?
NTRA on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, EXAS or NTRA?
The two are level on Momentum. Momentum carries 25% of the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, EXAS or NTRA?
EXAS is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. EXAS on Risk Resilience, by 4 points. The Risk Resilience factor weights 15% of the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is EXAS more profitable than NTRA?
EXAS leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 69.7% vs 65.3%; operating margin -6.2% vs -10.7%; ttm roe -8.5% vs -11.7%.
Is NTRA's lead over EXAS getting stronger or weaker?
NTRA lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 12 to 6 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-04-23 and 2026-09-04. The lead has changed hands 8 times in that window, most recently on 2026-07-30, when NTRA moved ahead of EXAS.
What would change the EXAS vs NTRA verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: EXAS closes the Quality gap — currently 13 points behind, the largest single contributor to NTRA's edge; EXAS generates a confirmed bullish trend signal it does not currently carry, such as Golden Cross Active or MACD Bullish Crossover; NTRA's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 3 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; the narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 6 points over 30 sessions, and a further 6-point move would eliminate NTRA's advantage entirely.
What do the current signals say about EXAS and NTRA?
EXAS: No active signals. NTRA: 3 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. On NTRA it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare EXAS and NTRA with others
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality (30%), Value (30%), Momentum (25%) and Risk (15%). Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.