HRL vs KDP Stock Comparison
Compare HRL and KDP across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between HRL and KDP?
KDP leads the current stock comparison as Keurig Dr Pepper Inc., with the clearest separation coming from momentum and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Hormel Foods Corporation vs Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
KDP leads
KDP leads by 5 AIQ points, primarily on Momentum, having only recently taken the lead back from HRL.
Fragile: 3 of 6 evidence groups support KDP, the lead recently changed hands, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Hormel Foods Corporation
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors KDP over HRL, 46 versus 41 as of Sep 11, 2026. KDP's advantage is driven primarily by stronger momentum, while HRL holds the stronger value profile. KDP also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor KDP today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 5 points. KDP lead: Reversed — HRL led by 2 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; KDP now leads by 5.
Compare Hormel Foods Corporation and Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare HRL and KDP against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum24 vs 60KDP +36
- Value56 vs 46HRL +10
- Risk Resilience52 vs 42HRL +10
- Quality36 vs 37Even
3 of 6 evidence groups favor KDP. KDP’s edge is concentrated in momentum; HRL keeps a meaningful value edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-10, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-09.
Largest factor move: Risk Resilience +1
No new signals fired.
Largest factor move: Momentum -10
New signals
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
KDP's lead narrowed by 3 AIQ points in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — HRL and KDP both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
KDP (Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by momentum.
HRL (Hormel Foods Corporation): the counter-case, on value, risk resilience, valuation — but at materially higher volatility, 39.3% against 30.9%.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
KDPKDP on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
KDPKDP on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
HRLHRL on the peer-relative Value factor, by 10 points.
Momentum
KDPKDP on the Momentum factor, by 36 points.
Lower downside
HRLHRL on Risk Resilience, by 10 points.
Analyst upside
EvenAnalyst targets are level or not covered for both names.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | HRL | KDP | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +16.7% | +16.4% | Level |
| Target dispersion | +16.7% | +38.3% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 3 | 8 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor KDP. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | KDP | 41 vs 46 |
| Fundamentals | KDPon balance | EPS growth -62.1% vs -77.9%; TTM ROE 4.3% vs 5.6%; gross margin 15.7% vs 49.4%; operating margin 4.7% vs 16.8% — KDP takes 3 of 4 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | HRL | Value 56 vs 46 |
| Technicals | KDP | Price vs 50-day -14.8% vs 0.5%; vs 200-day -11% vs 7.7% |
| Risk Resilience | HRL | Risk Resilience 52 vs 42 |
| Analyst expectations | Even | Target upside 16.7% vs 16.4% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of HRL and KDP and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 5 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on KDP.
How the comparison changed
119 daily snapshots · May 4 – Sep 10KDP lead: Reversed — HRL led by 2 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; KDP now leads by 5.
- Today
- KDP +5
- 41 vs 46
- 7 sessions ago
- KDP +10
- 41 vs 51
- 30 sessions ago
- HRL +2
- 45 vs 43
- 90 sessions ago
- HRL +4
- 51 vs 47
The lead changed hands 4 times in this window, most recently on Aug 20 when KDP moved ahead of HRL.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
2 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (3.11%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- Keltner Channel Breakdown — bearish, volatility, short horizon
3 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (6.89%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
KDP leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -1.3%, AIQ 0 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved down over the latest session (price -0.22%, AIQ -3 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1HRL closes the Momentum gap — currently 36 points behind, the largest single contributor to KDP's edge.
- 2HRL's Keltner Channel Breakdown resolves — a bearish volatility rule currently active against it.
- 3KDP's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 3 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
KDP leads on balance| Metric | HRL | KDP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -0.4% | 83.8% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -62.1% | -78% |
| Gross margin | 15.7% | 49.4% |
| Operating margin | 4.7% | 16.8% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 4.3% | 5.6% |
| Debt to equity | 0.36 | 1.37 |
Performance
KDP leads 6 of 6 windows| Metric | HRL | KDP |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -5.5% | -3.5% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -14.6% | 6.4% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -14.2% | -0.8% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -9.5% | 13.8% |
| Year to date | -12.1% | 12.3% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -18.3% | 13.8% |
Technicals
KDP has the stronger structure| Metric | HRL | KDP |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 18.8 | 48.1 |
| ADX (14) | 33.9 | 26.5 |
| Price vs 50-day | -14.8% | 0.5% |
| Price vs 200-day | -11% | 7.7% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 39.3% | 30.9% |
Risk
HRL is the more resilient| Metric | HRL | KDP |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.1 | 0.07 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.68 | 0.48 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.96 | 0.77 |
| Max drawdown | -23.5% | -18.4% |
| Current drawdown | -21.4% | -6.1% |
| Annualized volatility | 29.4% | 26.6% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -2.1% | -2.4% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, HRL or KDP?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, KDP is the stronger of the two as of Sep 11, 2026, scoring 46 against HRL's 41. The edge comes from momentum. HRL is not without a case — it holds the better value profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is HRL or KDP the better buy right now?
KDP carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 11, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 5 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor KDP over HRL?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. KDP leads Momentum by 36 points; HRL leads Value by 10 points; HRL leads Risk Resilience by 10 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, HRL or KDP?
Analyst price targets imply +16.7% upside for HRL and +16.4% for KDP. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, HRL or KDP?
HRL is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. HRL on the peer-relative Value factor, by 10 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, HRL or KDP?
KDP on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, HRL or KDP?
KDP on the Momentum factor, by 36 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, HRL or KDP?
HRL is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. HRL on Risk Resilience, by 10 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is HRL more profitable than KDP?
KDP leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 15.7% vs 49.4%; operating margin 4.7% vs 16.8%; ttm roe 4.3% vs 5.6%.
Is KDP's lead over HRL getting stronger or weaker?
KDP lead: Reversed — HRL led by 2 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; KDP now leads by 5. This is measured from 119 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-05-04 and 2026-09-10. The lead has changed hands 4 times in that window, most recently on 2026-08-20, when KDP moved ahead of HRL.
What would change the HRL vs KDP verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: HRL closes the Momentum gap — currently 36 points behind, the largest single contributor to KDP's edge; HRL's Keltner Channel Breakdown resolves — a bearish volatility rule currently active against it; KDP's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 3 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about HRL and KDP?
HRL: 2 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. KDP: 3 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on HRL is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On KDP it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare HRL and KDP with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.