MDU vs MLM Stock Comparison
MLM currently leads MDU in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 59 vs 51. The clearest difference is momentum, while MDU has the stronger value profile.
What is the main difference between MDU and MLM?
MLM leads the current stock comparison as Martin Marietta Materials, Inc., with the clearest separation coming from momentum and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
MDU Resources Group, Inc. vs Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.
MLM leads
MLM leads by 8 AIQ points, primarily on Momentum and Quality, and the lead has widened from 1 points over 30 sessions. Wall Street currently favors MDU on target upside.
Fragile: 3 of 6 evidence groups support MLM, its lead is widening, and its current signal state is conflicted.
MDU Resources Group, Inc.
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors MLM over MDU, 59 versus 51 as of Oct 22, 2026. MLM's advantage is driven primarily by stronger momentum and quality, while MDU holds the stronger value profile. MLM also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors MDU. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor MLM today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. MLM lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 1 to 8 points over 30 sessions.
Compare MDU Resources Group, Inc. and Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare MDU and MLM against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum56 vs 87MLM +31
- Value51 vs 35MDU +16
- Quality43 vs 58MLM +15
- Risk Resilience56 vs 64MLM +8
3 of 6 evidence groups favor MLM. MLM’s edge is concentrated in momentum and quality; MDU keeps a meaningful value edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Momentum +9
New signals
- BB Upper Band Breach — bearish, volatility, short horizon
Largest factor move: Momentum +18
New signals
- BB Upper Band Breach — bearish, volatility, short horizon
MLM's lead widened by 1 AIQ point in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — MDU and MLM both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
MLM (Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by momentum and quality.
MDU (MDU Resources Group, Inc.): the counter-case, on value, valuation, technicals.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
MLMMLM on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
MLMMLM on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
MDUMDU on the peer-relative Value factor, by 16 points.
Momentum
MLMMLM on the Momentum factor, by 31 points.
Lower downside
MLMMLM on Risk Resilience, by 8 points.
Analyst upside
MDUMDU on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors MLM, analyst targets favor MDU. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | MDU | MLM | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +30.8% | +25.4% | MDU has more room |
| Target dispersion | 0% | +32.7% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 1 | 10 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Dividend growth
| Dividend metric | MDU | MLM |
|---|---|---|
| 5Y dividend CAGR | 11.21% | 7.66% |
| 2020 regular DPS | $0.318 | $2.240 |
| 2025 regular DPS | $0.540 | $3.240 |
| Years increased | 4 | 5 |
| No cut in window | No (1) | Yes |
| Cohort rank | not ranked | #153 |
MDU grew its split-adjusted regular dividend faster over 2020–2025 — 11.21% a year against MLM's 7.66%. MLM never reduced its regular dividend in the window; MDU did in 1 year.
Yield and payout ratio shown elsewhere on this page are current values, not part of the study window.
Split-adjusted regular dividends per share, 2020–2025, excluding special dividends. Research as of Sep 19, 2026.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor MLM. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | MLM | 51 vs 59 |
| Fundamentals | MLMon balance | revenue growth -38.1% vs 43%; EPS growth -74.4% vs -83.4%; TTM ROE 6.9% vs 23.1%; gross margin 42.4% vs 28.2%; operating margin 17% vs 21.1% — MLM takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | MDU | Value 51 vs 35 |
| Technicals | MDU | Price vs 50-day -1% vs 0.7%; vs 200-day -7.4% vs -12.6% |
| Risk Resilience | MLM | Risk Resilience 56 vs 64 |
| Analyst expectations | MDU | Target upside 30.8% vs 25.4% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of MDU and MLM and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 8 points.
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader's advantage has been widening. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on MLM.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20MLM lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 1 to 8 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- MLM +8
- 51 vs 59
- 7 sessions ago
- MLM +4
- 46 vs 50
- 30 sessions ago
- MLM +1
- 43 vs 44
- 90 sessions ago
- MDU +3
- 46 vs 43
The lead changed hands 11 times in this window, most recently on Oct 14 when MLM moved ahead of MDU.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 3 bearish, conflicted
Only MDU
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
1 bullish / 2 bearish, conflicted
No signal that the other name lacks.
Both carry 3 more signals that do not separate them: Death Cross Active, BB Upper Band Breach, MACD Bullish Crossover.
MLM leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +0.1%, AIQ +3 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +0.28%, AIQ +4 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1MDU closes the Momentum gap — currently 31 points behind, the largest single contributor to MLM's edge.
- 2MDU's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3MLM's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
MLM leads on balance| Metric | MDU | MLM |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -38.1% | 43% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -74.4% | -83.4% |
| Gross margin | 42.4% | 28.2% |
| Operating margin | 17% | 21.1% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 6.9% | 23.1% |
| Debt to equity | 0.88 | 0.52 |
Performance
MDU leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | MDU | MLM |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 2.5% | 7.4% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | 2.9% | 1.7% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -9.5% | -7.8% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -10.8% | -17.4% |
| Year to date | -2.2% | -18.5% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 0.5% | -18.7% |
Technicals
MDU has the stronger structure| Metric | MDU | MLM |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 66.3 | 69.8 |
| ADX (14) | 24.5 | 22.1 |
| Price vs 50-day | -1% | 0.7% |
| Price vs 200-day | -7.4% | -12.6% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 14.1% | 24.9% |
Risk
MLM is the more resilient| Metric | MDU | MLM |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.18 | 0.85 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.12 | -0.73 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.17 | -1.06 |
| Max drawdown | -19.3% | -33.5% |
| Current drawdown | -16.2% | -28.3% |
| Annualized volatility | 20% | 28.4% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -2.1% | -3.1% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, MDU or MLM?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, MLM is the stronger of the two as of Oct 22, 2026, scoring 59 against MDU's 51. The edge comes from momentum and quality. MDU is not without a case — it holds the better value profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is MDU or MLM the better buy right now?
MLM carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 22, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor MLM over MDU?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. MLM leads Momentum by 31 points; MDU leads Value by 16 points; MLM leads Quality by 15 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, MDU or MLM?
Analyst price targets imply +30.8% upside for MDU and +25.4% for MLM, so the Street currently favors MDU. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors MLM. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, MDU or MLM?
MDU is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. MDU on the peer-relative Value factor, by 16 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, MDU or MLM?
MLM on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, MDU or MLM?
MLM on the Momentum factor, by 31 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, MDU or MLM?
MLM is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. MLM on Risk Resilience, by 8 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is MDU more profitable than MLM?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 42.4% vs 28.2%; operating margin 17% vs 21.1%; ttm roe 6.9% vs 23.1%. MDU leads on one measure and MLM on two measures, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is MLM's lead over MDU getting stronger or weaker?
MLM lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 1 to 8 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has changed hands 11 times in that window, most recently on 2026-10-14, when MLM moved ahead of MDU.
What would change the MDU vs MLM verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: MDU closes the Momentum gap — currently 31 points behind, the largest single contributor to MLM's edge; MDU's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; MLM's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about MDU and MLM?
MDU: 1 bullish / 3 bearish, conflicted. MLM: 1 bullish / 2 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on MDU is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On MLM it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare MDU and MLM with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.