MGM vs NCLH Stock Comparison
NCLH currently leads MGM in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 52 vs 42. The clearest difference is momentum, while MGM has the stronger risk resilience profile.
What is the main difference between MGM and NCLH?
NCLH leads the current stock comparison as Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., with the clearest separation coming from momentum and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
MGM Resorts International vs Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.
NCLH leads
NCLH leads by 10 AIQ points, primarily on Momentum and Quality. Wall Street currently favors MGM on target upside.
Fragile: 3 of 6 evidence groups support NCLH, and its current signal state is conflicted.
MGM Resorts International
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors NCLH over MGM, 52 versus 42 as of Oct 22, 2026. NCLH's advantage is driven primarily by stronger momentum and quality, while MGM holds the stronger risk resilience profile. NCLH also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors MGM. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor NCLH today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. NCLH lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 10 points over 30 sessions.
Compare MGM Resorts International and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare MGM and NCLH against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum26 vs 51NCLH +25
- Risk Resilience38 vs 20MGM +18
- Quality37 vs 51NCLH +14
- Value64 vs 70NCLH +6
3 of 6 evidence groups favor NCLH. NCLH’s edge is concentrated in momentum and quality; MGM keeps a meaningful risk resilience edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
No factor moved materially.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 6 active signals are unchanged.
Largest factor move: Momentum +5
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 5 active signals are unchanged.
NCLH's lead widened by 1 AIQ point in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — MGM and NCLH both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
NCLH (Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by momentum and quality.
MGM (MGM Resorts International): the counter-case, on risk resilience, analyst expectations.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
NCLHNCLH on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
MGMMGM on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
NCLHNCLH on the peer-relative Value factor, by 6 points.
Momentum
NCLHNCLH on the Momentum factor, by 25 points.
Lower downside
MGMMGM on Risk Resilience, by 18 points.
Analyst upside
MGMMGM on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors NCLH, analyst targets favor MGM. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | MGM | NCLH | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +61.1% | +27.4% | MGM has more room |
| Target dispersion | +53.7% | +156.1% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Hold | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 11 | 14 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor NCLH. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | NCLH | 42 vs 52 |
| Fundamentals | Even | EPS growth 128.6% vs 108.7%; TTM ROE 17% vs 32.3%; gross margin 44.2% vs 42.5%; operating margin 5.7% vs 15.1% |
| Valuation | NCLH | Value 64 vs 70 |
| Technicals | NCLH | Price vs 50-day -22.4% vs -0.9%; vs 200-day -26.5% vs -17.6% |
| Risk Resilience | MGM | Risk Resilience 38 vs 20 |
| Analyst expectations | MGM | Target upside 61.1% vs 27.4% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of MGM and NCLH and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 10 points.
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Analyst targets on the leader are widely dispersed. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on NCLH.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20NCLH lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 10 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- NCLH +10
- 42 vs 52
- 7 sessions ago
- NCLH +10
- 42 vs 52
- 30 sessions ago
- NCLH +8
- 42 vs 50
- 90 sessions ago
- MGM +2
- 47 vs 45
The lead changed hands 2 times in this window, most recently on Jul 30 when MGM moved ahead of NCLH.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
2 bullish / 3 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only MGM
- RSI Oversold - Potential Bounce — bullish, momentum, short horizon
- 52-Week Low Proximity — bearish, risk, long horizon (1.1%)
1 bullish / 2 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted
Only NCLH
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
Both carry 4 more signals that do not separate them: Death Cross Active, ATR Expansion - Breakout Mode, Downtrend Structure Active, MACD Bullish Crossover.
NCLH leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -0.1%, AIQ 0 points).
Price is down while the AIQ Score moved up 1 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price -0.38%, AIQ +1 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1MGM closes the Momentum gap — currently 25 points behind, the largest single contributor to NCLH's edge.
- 2MGM's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3NCLH's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
Split| Metric | MGM | NCLH |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -0.1% | 13.3% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 128.6% | 108.7% |
| Gross margin | 44.2% | 42.5% |
| Operating margin | 5.7% | 15.1% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 17% | 32.3% |
| Debt to equity | 11.87 | 5.84 |
Performance
NCLH leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | MGM | NCLH |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -1.7% | 2.2% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -25.7% | 10.1% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -36.5% | -19% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -25.9% | -19% |
| Year to date | -20.6% | -29.9% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -8.8% | -31.5% |
Technicals
NCLH has the stronger structure| Metric | MGM | NCLH |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 28.9 | 60.8 |
| ADX (14) | 60.2 | 16.1 |
| Price vs 50-day | -22.4% | -0.9% |
| Price vs 200-day | -26.5% | -17.6% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 42.8% | 37.9% |
Risk
MGM is the more resilient| Metric | MGM | NCLH |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.84 | 1.96 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.14 | -0.5 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.23 | -0.78 |
| Max drawdown | -43.8% | -43.6% |
| Current drawdown | -43% | -37.5% |
| Annualized volatility | 39% | 54.5% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -3.2% | -4.7% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, MGM or NCLH?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, NCLH is the stronger of the two as of Oct 22, 2026, scoring 52 against MGM's 42. The edge comes from momentum and quality. MGM is not without a case — it holds the better risk resilience profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is MGM or NCLH the better buy right now?
NCLH carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 22, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor NCLH over MGM?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. NCLH leads Momentum by 25 points; MGM leads Risk Resilience by 18 points; NCLH leads Quality by 14 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, MGM or NCLH?
Analyst price targets imply +61.1% upside for MGM and +27.4% for NCLH, so the Street currently favors MGM. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors NCLH. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, MGM or NCLH?
NCLH is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. NCLH on the peer-relative Value factor, by 6 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, MGM or NCLH?
MGM on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, MGM or NCLH?
NCLH on the Momentum factor, by 25 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, MGM or NCLH?
MGM is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. MGM on Risk Resilience, by 18 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is MGM more profitable than NCLH?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 44.2% vs 42.5%; operating margin 5.7% vs 15.1%; ttm roe 17% vs 32.3%. MGM leads on one measure and NCLH on two measures, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is NCLH's lead over MGM getting stronger or weaker?
NCLH lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 10 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has changed hands 2 times in that window, most recently on 2026-07-30, when MGM moved ahead of NCLH.
What would change the MGM vs NCLH verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: MGM closes the Momentum gap — currently 25 points behind, the largest single contributor to NCLH's edge; MGM's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; NCLH's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about MGM and NCLH?
MGM: 2 bullish / 3 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. NCLH: 1 bullish / 2 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on MGM is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On NCLH it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare MGM and NCLH with others
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How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.