MSFT vs PAYX Stock Comparison
MSFT currently leads PAYX in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 67 vs 64. The clearest difference is risk resilience.
What is the main difference between MSFT and PAYX?
MSFT leads the current stock comparison as Microsoft Corporation, with the clearest separation coming from risk resilience and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Microsoft Corporation vs Paychex, Inc.
MSFT leads
MSFT leads by 3 AIQ points, primarily on Risk Resilience and Quality, but the lead has narrowed from 17 points over 30 sessions.
Fragile: 4 of 6 evidence groups support MSFT, its lead is narrowing, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Microsoft Corporation
Paychex, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors MSFT over PAYX, 67 versus 64 as of Oct 21, 2026. MSFT's advantage is driven primarily by stronger risk resilience and quality. MSFT also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor MSFT today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 3 points. MSFT lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 17 to 3 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Microsoft Corporation and Paychex, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare MSFT and PAYX against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Risk Resilience67 vs 55MSFT +12
- Quality89 vs 81MSFT +8
- Value44 vs 45Even
- Momentum70 vs 71Even
4 of 6 evidence groups favor MSFT. MSFT’s edge is concentrated in risk resilience and quality.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Momentum -4
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 4 active signals are unchanged.
No factor moved materially.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 4 active signals are unchanged.
MSFT's lead narrowed by 1 AIQ point in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — MSFT and PAYX both carry a full feed there.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
MSFTMSFT on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
MSFTMSFT on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
EvenThe two are level on Value.
Momentum
EvenThe two are level on Momentum.
Lower downside
MSFTMSFT on Risk Resilience, by 12 points.
Analyst upside
MSFTMSFT on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | MSFT | PAYX | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +6% | -2.7% | MSFT has more room |
| Target dispersion | +57.5% | +15.5% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Hold | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 24 | 7 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Dividend growth
| Dividend metric | MSFT | PAYX |
|---|---|---|
| 5Y dividend CAGR | 10.22% | 11.22% |
| 2020 regular DPS | $2.090 | $2.480 |
| 2025 regular DPS | $3.400 | $4.220 |
| Years increased | 5 | 5 |
| No cut in window | Yes | Yes |
| Cohort rank | #93 | #73 |
PAYX grew its split-adjusted regular dividend faster over 2020–2025 — 11.22% a year against MSFT's 10.22%. Neither company reduced its regular dividend in any year of the window.
Yield and payout ratio shown elsewhere on this page are current values, not part of the study window.
Split-adjusted regular dividends per share, 2020–2025, excluding special dividends. Research as of Sep 19, 2026.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor MSFT. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | Even | 67 vs 64 |
| Fundamentals | MSFTon balance | revenue growth 8.6% vs -11.2%; EPS growth 12.4% vs -24.4%; TTM ROE 33.2% vs 45.1%; gross margin 67.9% vs 74.3%; operating margin 46.8% vs 38.6% — MSFT takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | Even | Value 44 vs 45 |
| Technicals | MSFT | Price vs 50-day 5.2% vs -1.5%; vs 200-day 22% vs 9% |
| Risk Resilience | MSFT | Risk Resilience 67 vs 55 |
| Analyst expectations | MSFT | Target upside 6% vs -2.7% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of MSFT and PAYX and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 3 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader's advantage has been narrowing. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on MSFT.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20MSFT lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 17 to 3 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- MSFT +3
- 67 vs 64
- 7 sessions ago
- MSFT +6
- 70 vs 64
- 30 sessions ago
- MSFT +17
- 67 vs 50
- 90 sessions ago
- MSFT +8
- 70 vs 62
The lead changed hands 4 times in this window, most recently on Aug 20 when PAYX moved ahead of MSFT.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
3 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
Only MSFT
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
3 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
Only PAYX
- Keltner Channel Breakout — bullish, volatility, short horizon
- RSI Overbought — bearish, momentum, short horizon
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
Both carry 1 more signal that do not separate them: Golden Cross Active.
MSFT leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price is up while the AIQ Score moved down 1 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price +0.2%, AIQ -1 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -0.11%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1PAYX closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 12 points behind, the largest single contributor to MSFT's edge.
- 2PAYX's RSI Overbought resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it.
- 3MSFT's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 3 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4The narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 14 points over 30 sessions, and a further 3-point move would eliminate MSFT's advantage entirely.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
MSFT leads on balance| Metric | MSFT | PAYX |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 8.6% | -11.2% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 12.4% | -24.4% |
| Gross margin | 67.9% | 74.3% |
| Operating margin | 46.8% | 38.6% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 33.2% | 45.1% |
| Debt to equity | 0.29 | 1.24 |
Performance
MSFT leads 5 of 6 windows| Metric | MSFT | PAYX |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -2.1% | 6% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | 6.8% | -1.7% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 36.3% | 1.7% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 25.4% | 20.2% |
| Year to date | 10% | 0.4% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 4% | -11% |
Technicals
MSFT has the stronger structure| Metric | MSFT | PAYX |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 62.3 | 79.1 |
| ADX (14) | 34.6 | 26.4 |
| Price vs 50-day | 5.2% | -1.5% |
| Price vs 200-day | 22% | 9% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 21.7% | 40.2% |
Risk
MSFT is the more resilient| Metric | MSFT | PAYX |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.02 | 0.02 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.15 | -0.37 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.24 | -0.52 |
| Max drawdown | -34.9% | -32.9% |
| Current drawdown | -2.1% | -11.7% |
| Annualized volatility | 33% | 30.1% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -2.8% | -3% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, MSFT or PAYX?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, MSFT is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 67 against PAYX's 64. The edge comes from risk resilience and quality. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is MSFT or PAYX the better buy right now?
MSFT carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 4 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 3 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor MSFT over PAYX?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. MSFT leads Risk Resilience by 12 points; MSFT leads Quality by 8 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, MSFT or PAYX?
Analyst price targets imply +6% upside for MSFT and -2.7% for PAYX, so the Street currently favors MSFT. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, MSFT or PAYX?
Neither name separates on the peer-relative Value factor. The two are level on Value. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, MSFT or PAYX?
MSFT on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, MSFT or PAYX?
The two are level on Momentum. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, MSFT or PAYX?
MSFT is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. MSFT on Risk Resilience, by 12 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is MSFT more profitable than PAYX?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 67.9% vs 74.3%; operating margin 46.8% vs 38.6%; ttm roe 33.2% vs 45.1%. MSFT leads on one measure and PAYX on two measures, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is MSFT's lead over PAYX getting stronger or weaker?
MSFT lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 17 to 3 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has changed hands 4 times in that window, most recently on 2026-08-20, when PAYX moved ahead of MSFT.
What would change the MSFT vs PAYX verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: PAYX closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 12 points behind, the largest single contributor to MSFT's edge; PAYX's RSI Overbought resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it; MSFT's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 3 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; the narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 14 points over 30 sessions, and a further 3-point move would eliminate MSFT's advantage entirely.
What do the current signals say about MSFT and PAYX?
MSFT: 3 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. PAYX: 3 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on MSFT is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On PAYX it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare MSFT and PAYX with others
Continue your research
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How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.