NSC vs UNP Stock Comparison
UNP currently leads NSC in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 64 vs 57. The clearest difference is momentum.
What is the main difference between NSC and UNP?
UNP leads the current stock comparison as Union Pacific Corporation, with the clearest separation coming from momentum and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Norfolk Southern Corporation vs Union Pacific Corporation
UNP leads
UNP leads by 7 AIQ points, primarily on Momentum and Quality, and the lead has widened from 4 points over 30 sessions.
Competitive: 4 of 6 evidence groups support UNP, its lead is widening, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Norfolk Southern Corporation
Union Pacific Corporation
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors UNP over NSC, 64 versus 57 as of Oct 21, 2026. UNP's advantage is driven primarily by stronger momentum and quality. UNP also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor UNP today, and the comparison is rated Competitive on stability: the leader is throwing conflicting signals. UNP lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 4 to 7 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Norfolk Southern Corporation and Union Pacific Corporation across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare NSC and UNP against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum71 vs 85UNP +14
- Quality56 vs 67UNP +11
- Risk Resilience63 vs 67UNP +4
- Value42 vs 43Even
4 of 6 evidence groups favor UNP. UNP’s edge is concentrated in momentum and quality.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Momentum +3
New signals
- RSI Overbought — bearish, momentum, short horizon
Largest factor move: Momentum +13
New signals
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
UNP's lead widened by 2 AIQ points in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — NSC and UNP both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
UNP (Union Pacific Corporation): the stronger current systematic profile, led by momentum and quality.
NSC (Norfolk Southern Corporation): the counter-case, on fundamentals.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
UNPUNP on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
NSCNSC on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
EvenThe two are level on Value.
Momentum
UNPUNP on the Momentum factor, by 14 points.
Lower downside
UNPUNP on Risk Resilience, by 4 points.
Analyst upside
UNPUNP on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | NSC | UNP | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +6.7% | +10.4% | UNP has more room |
| Target dispersion | +25.7% | +28% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 7 | 10 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Dividend growth
| Dividend metric | NSC | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| 5Y dividend CAGR | 7.51% | 6.99% |
| 2020 regular DPS | $3.760 | $3.880 |
| 2025 regular DPS | $5.400 | $5.440 |
| Years increased | 3 | 5 |
| No cut in window | Yes | Yes |
| Cohort rank | #164 | #193 |
NSC grew its split-adjusted regular dividend faster over 2020–2025 — 7.51% a year against UNP's 6.99%. Neither company reduced its regular dividend in any year of the window.
Yield and payout ratio shown elsewhere on this page are current values, not part of the study window.
Split-adjusted regular dividends per share, 2020–2025, excluding special dividends. Research as of Sep 19, 2026.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor UNP. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | UNP | 57 vs 64 |
| Fundamentals | NSCon balance | revenue growth 15.6% vs 10.4%; EPS growth 34.2% vs 17.1%; TTM ROE 16.8% vs 38.6%; gross margin 53.7% vs 45.5%; operating margin 31.6% vs 39.9% — NSC takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | Even | Value 42 vs 43 |
| Technicals | UNP | Price vs 50-day 0.4% vs 0.1%; vs 200-day 4% vs 7.5% |
| Risk Resilience | UNP | Risk Resilience 63 vs 67 |
| Analyst expectations | UNP | Target upside 6.7% vs 10.4% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of NSC and UNP and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The two are close enough that your objective, not the score, should decide.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 7 points.
- The leader's advantage has been widening. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on UNP.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20UNP lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 4 to 7 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- UNP +7
- 57 vs 64
- 7 sessions ago
- UNP +7
- 57 vs 64
- 30 sessions ago
- UNP +4
- 46 vs 50
- 90 sessions ago
- UNP +5
- 54 vs 59
The lead has not changed hands in this window.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
3 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
No signal that the other name lacks.
4 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
Only UNP
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
Both carry 4 more signals that do not separate them: Golden Cross Active, RSI Overbought, EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish, MACD Bullish Crossover.
UNP leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +0.77%, AIQ +1 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +0.09%, AIQ +3 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1NSC closes the Momentum gap — currently 14 points behind, the largest single contributor to UNP's edge.
- 2NSC's RSI Overbought resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it.
- 3UNP's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 4 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
NSC leads on balance| Metric | NSC | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 15.6% | 10.4% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 34.2% | 17.1% |
| Gross margin | 53.7% | 45.5% |
| Operating margin | 31.6% | 39.9% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 16.8% | 38.6% |
| Debt to equity | 1.02 | 1.51 |
Performance
UNP leads 5 of 6 windows| Metric | NSC | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 1.4% | 1.9% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | 3.7% | 4.8% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -1.6% | -1.7% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 7.7% | 14.5% |
| Year to date | 12.8% | 24.3% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 12.9% | 28.4% |
Technicals
UNP has the stronger structure| Metric | NSC | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 75.8 | 78.9 |
| ADX (14) | 26.3 | 26.3 |
| Price vs 50-day | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Price vs 200-day | 4% | 7.5% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 13% | 12.4% |
Risk
UNP is the more resilient| Metric | NSC | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.48 | 1.01 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.74 | 1.57 |
| Max drawdown | -12.5% | -13.2% |
| Current drawdown | -7.8% | -7.4% |
| Annualized volatility | 20.7% | 22.5% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -1.9% | -2.2% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, NSC or UNP?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, UNP is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 64 against NSC's 57. The edge comes from momentum and quality. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is NSC or UNP the better buy right now?
UNP carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Competitive — 4 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Competitive rating means the two are close enough that your objective, not the score, should decide.
Why does the AIQ Score favor UNP over NSC?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. UNP leads Momentum by 14 points; UNP leads Quality by 11 points; UNP leads Risk Resilience by 4 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, NSC or UNP?
Analyst price targets imply +6.7% upside for NSC and +10.4% for UNP, so the Street currently favors UNP. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, NSC or UNP?
Neither name separates on the peer-relative Value factor. The two are level on Value. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, NSC or UNP?
NSC on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, NSC or UNP?
UNP on the Momentum factor, by 14 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, NSC or UNP?
UNP is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. UNP on Risk Resilience, by 4 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is NSC more profitable than UNP?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 53.7% vs 45.5%; operating margin 31.6% vs 39.9%; ttm roe 16.8% vs 38.6%. NSC leads on one measure and UNP on two measures, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is UNP's lead over NSC getting stronger or weaker?
UNP lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 4 to 7 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has not changed hands in that window.
What would change the NSC vs UNP verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: NSC closes the Momentum gap — currently 14 points behind, the largest single contributor to UNP's edge; NSC's RSI Overbought resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it; UNP's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 4 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about NSC and UNP?
NSC: 3 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. UNP: 4 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on NSC is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On UNP it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare NSC and UNP with others
Continue your research
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How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.