NVDA vs SMCI Stock Comparison
NVDA currently leads SMCI in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 55 vs 48. The clearest difference is quality, while SMCI has the stronger value profile.
What is the main difference between NVDA and SMCI?
NVDA leads the current stock comparison as NVIDIA Corporation, with the clearest separation coming from quality and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
NVIDIA Corporation vs Super Micro Computer, Inc.
NVDA leads
NVDA leads by 7 AIQ points, primarily on Quality and Risk Resilience.
Competitive: 5 of 6 evidence groups support NVDA, and its current signal state is conflicted.
NVIDIA Corporation
Super Micro Computer, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors NVDA over SMCI, 55 versus 48 as of Oct 21, 2026. NVDA's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality and risk resilience, while SMCI holds the stronger value profile. NVDA also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 5 of 6 covered evidence groups favor NVDA today, and the comparison is rated Competitive on stability: the leader is throwing conflicting signals. NVDA lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 7 points over 30 sessions.
Compare NVIDIA Corporation and Super Micro Computer, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare NVDA and SMCI against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Quality97 vs 53NVDA +44
- Value35 vs 74SMCI +39
- Risk Resilience57 vs 36NVDA +21
- Momentum29 vs 20NVDA +9
5 of 6 evidence groups favor NVDA. NVDA’s edge is concentrated in quality and risk resilience; SMCI keeps a meaningful value edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Momentum -2
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 2 active signals are unchanged.
No factor moved materially.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 5 active signals are unchanged.
NVDA's lead narrowed by 1 AIQ point in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — NVDA and SMCI both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality and risk resilience.
SMCI (Super Micro Computer, Inc.): the counter-case, on value, valuation — but at materially higher volatility, 59.9% against 23.5%.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
NVDANVDA on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
SMCISMCI on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
SMCISMCI on the peer-relative Value factor, by 39 points.
Momentum
NVDANVDA on the Momentum factor, by 9 points.
Lower downside
NVDANVDA on Risk Resilience, by 21 points.
Analyst upside
NVDANVDA on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | NVDA | SMCI | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +46.4% | +14.7% | NVDA has more room |
| Target dispersion | +93.9% | +44.1% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Hold | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 29 | 9 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
5 of 6 covered evidence groups favor NVDA. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | NVDA | 55 vs 48 |
| Fundamentals | NVDAon balance | revenue growth 17.9% vs 8.6%; EPS growth 2.9% vs 133.3%; TTM ROE 110.1% vs 25.1%; gross margin 74.7% vs 10.8%; operating margin 65.2% vs 7.1% — NVDA takes 4 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | SMCI | Value 35 vs 74 |
| Technicals | NVDA | Price vs 50-day -0.4% vs -8.1%; vs 200-day 6.5% vs -0.1% |
| Risk Resilience | NVDA | Risk Resilience 57 vs 36 |
| Analyst expectations | NVDA | Target upside 46.4% vs 14.7% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of NVDA and SMCI and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The two are close enough that your objective, not the score, should decide.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 7 points.
- 5 of 6 covered evidence groups point the same way. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Analyst targets on the leader are widely dispersed. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on NVDA.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20NVDA lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 7 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- NVDA +7
- 55 vs 48
- 7 sessions ago
- NVDA +7
- 57 vs 50
- 30 sessions ago
- NVDA +5
- 65 vs 60
- 90 sessions ago
- NVDA +6
- 69 vs 63
The lead changed hands 5 times in this window, most recently on Sep 18 when NVDA moved ahead of SMCI.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
No signal that the other name lacks.
2 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only SMCI
- ATR Expansion - Breakout Mode — neutral, volatility, short horizon (7.58%)
- Keltner Channel Breakdown — bearish, volatility, short horizon
- RSI Oversold - Potential Bounce — bullish, momentum, short horizon
Both carry 2 more signals that do not separate them: Golden Cross Active, MACD Bearish Crossover.
NVDA leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price is up while the AIQ Score moved down 1 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price +2.54%, AIQ -1 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +9.55%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1SMCI closes the Quality gap — currently 44 points behind, the largest single contributor to NVDA's edge.
- 2SMCI's Keltner Channel Breakdown resolves — a bearish volatility rule currently active against it.
- 3NVDA's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
NVDA leads on balance| Metric | NVDA | SMCI |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 17.9% | 8.6% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 2.9% | 133.3% |
| Gross margin | 74.7% | 10.8% |
| Operating margin | 65.2% | 7.1% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 110.1% | 25.1% |
| Debt to equity | 0.17 | 0.46 |
Performance
NVDA leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | NVDA | SMCI |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -5.3% | -16.9% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -5.4% | -21.8% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 2.1% | 6.3% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 8.3% | 14.2% |
| Year to date | 16.1% | 10.9% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 19.1% | -39.7% |
Technicals
NVDA has the stronger structure| Metric | NVDA | SMCI |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 36.5 | 27.4 |
| ADX (14) | 18 | 27.7 |
| Price vs 50-day | -0.4% | -8.1% |
| Price vs 200-day | 6.5% | -0.1% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 23.5% | 59.9% |
Risk
NVDA is the more resilient| Metric | NVDA | SMCI |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.94 | 3.9 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.53 | -0.08 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.92 | -0.11 |
| Max drawdown | -20.2% | -62.7% |
| Current drawdown | -9.5% | -41% |
| Annualized volatility | 37.8% | 92.9% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -3.7% | -7.9% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, NVDA or SMCI?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, NVDA is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 55 against SMCI's 48. The edge comes from quality and risk resilience. SMCI is not without a case — it holds the better value profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is NVDA or SMCI the better buy right now?
NVDA carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Competitive — 5 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Competitive rating means the two are close enough that your objective, not the score, should decide.
Why does the AIQ Score favor NVDA over SMCI?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. NVDA leads Quality by 44 points; SMCI leads Value by 39 points; NVDA leads Risk Resilience by 21 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, NVDA or SMCI?
Analyst price targets imply +46.4% upside for NVDA and +14.7% for SMCI, so the Street currently favors NVDA. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, NVDA or SMCI?
SMCI is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. SMCI on the peer-relative Value factor, by 39 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, NVDA or SMCI?
SMCI on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, NVDA or SMCI?
NVDA on the Momentum factor, by 9 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, NVDA or SMCI?
NVDA is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. NVDA on Risk Resilience, by 21 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is NVDA more profitable than SMCI?
NVDA leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 74.7% vs 10.8%; operating margin 65.2% vs 7.1%; ttm roe 110.1% vs 25.1%.
Is NVDA's lead over SMCI getting stronger or weaker?
NVDA lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 7 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has changed hands 5 times in that window, most recently on 2026-09-18, when NVDA moved ahead of SMCI.
What would change the NVDA vs SMCI verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: SMCI closes the Quality gap — currently 44 points behind, the largest single contributor to NVDA's edge; SMCI's Keltner Channel Breakdown resolves — a bearish volatility rule currently active against it; NVDA's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about NVDA and SMCI?
NVDA: 1 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. SMCI: 2 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on NVDA is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On SMCI it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare NVDA and SMCI with others
Continue your research
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How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.