POST vs SMPL Stock Comparison
Compare POST and SMPL across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between POST and SMPL?
SMPL leads the current stock comparison as The Simply Good Foods Company, with the clearest separation coming from quality and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Post Holdings, Inc. vs The Simply Good Foods Company
SMPL leads
SMPL leads by 2 AIQ points, primarily on Quality, but the lead has narrowed from 15 points over 30 sessions.
Fragile: 2 of 6 evidence groups support SMPL, and its lead is narrowing.
Post Holdings, Inc.
The Simply Good Foods Company
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors SMPL over POST, 47 versus 45 as of Sep 11, 2026. SMPL's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality, while POST holds the stronger momentum profile. SMPL also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 2 of 6 covered evidence groups favor SMPL today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 2 points. SMPL lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 15 to 2 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Post Holdings, Inc. and The Simply Good Foods Company across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare POST and SMPL against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Quality21 vs 40SMPL +19
- Momentum46 vs 33POST +13
- Risk Resilience45 vs 39POST +6
- Value69 vs 70Even
2 of 6 evidence groups favor SMPL. SMPL’s edge is concentrated in quality; POST keeps a meaningful momentum edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-10, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-09.
Largest factor move: Momentum -2
No new signals fired.
Largest factor move: Momentum +2
No new signals fired.
SMPL's lead widened by 1 AIQ points in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — POST and SMPL both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
SMPL (The Simply Good Foods Company): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality.
POST (Post Holdings, Inc.): the counter-case, on momentum, risk resilience, technicals.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
SMPLSMPL on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
SMPLSMPL on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
EvenThe two are level on Value.
Momentum
POSTPOST on the Momentum factor, by 13 points.
Lower downside
POSTPOST on Risk Resilience, by 6 points.
Analyst upside
SMPLSMPL on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | POST | SMPL | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +41.5% | +47.8% | SMPL has more room |
| Target dispersion | +29.1% | +61.9% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Hold | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 6 | 9 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
2 of 6 covered evidence groups favor SMPL. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | Even | 45 vs 47 |
| Fundamentals | SMPLon balance | revenue growth -4.6% vs 9.5%; EPS growth -17.5% vs 66.5%; TTM ROE 8.7% vs -12.3%; gross margin 26.9% vs 32.1%; operating margin 10.1% vs 5.9% — SMPL takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | Even | Value 69 vs 70 |
| Technicals | POST | Price vs 50-day -6.2% vs -13.1%; vs 200-day -16.4% vs -29.6% |
| Risk Resilience | POST | Risk Resilience 45 vs 39 |
| Analyst expectations | SMPL | Target upside 41.5% vs 47.8% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of POST and SMPL and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 2 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Only 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader's advantage has been narrowing. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Analyst targets on the leader are widely dispersed. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on SMPL.
How the comparison changed
119 daily snapshots · May 4 – Sep 10SMPL lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 15 to 2 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- SMPL +2
- 45 vs 47
- 7 sessions ago
- SMPL +4
- 48 vs 52
- 30 sessions ago
- SMPL +15
- 38 vs 53
- 90 sessions ago
- SMPL +12
- 43 vs 55
The lead changed hands 3 times in this window, most recently on Aug 5 when SMPL moved ahead of POST.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 2 bearish, conflicted
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (12.40%)
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
0 bullish / 4 bearish / 2 neutral
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (28.39%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- 52-Week Low Proximity — bearish, risk, long horizon (1.6%)
POST is conflicted, so the timing case there is weaker than the score alone suggests.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price and the AIQ Score both moved down over the latest session (price -0.11%, AIQ -1 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -3.91%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1POST closes the Quality gap — currently 19 points behind, the largest single contributor to SMPL's edge.
- 2POST's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3SMPL starts generating bearish momentum or trend signals.
- 4The narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 13 points over 30 sessions, and a further 2-point move would eliminate SMPL's advantage entirely.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
SMPL leads on balance| Metric | POST | SMPL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -4.6% | 9.5% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -17.5% | 66.5% |
| Gross margin | 26.9% | 32.1% |
| Operating margin | 10.1% | 5.9% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 8.7% | -12.3% |
| Debt to equity | 2.48 | 0.28 |
Performance
POST leads 6 of 6 windows| Metric | POST | SMPL |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -4.8% | -9.2% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -0.4% | -6.4% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -14.2% | -18.8% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -21% | -31% |
| Year to date | -19% | -49% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -24.5% | -63.7% |
Technicals
POST has the stronger structure| Metric | POST | SMPL |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 54.8 | 40.2 |
| ADX (14) | 13.9 | 12.8 |
| Price vs 50-day | -6.2% | -13.1% |
| Price vs 200-day | -16.4% | -29.6% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 28.6% | 53% |
Risk
POST is the more resilient| Metric | POST | SMPL |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.09 | 0.22 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.85 | -1.83 |
| Sortino ratio | -1.09 | -2.22 |
| Max drawdown | -33.5% | -63.8% |
| Current drawdown | -29.9% | -63.6% |
| Annualized volatility | 31.4% | 50.5% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -3% | -4.7% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, POST or SMPL?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, SMPL is the stronger of the two as of Sep 11, 2026, scoring 47 against POST's 45. The edge comes from quality. POST is not without a case — it holds the better momentum profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is POST or SMPL the better buy right now?
SMPL carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 11, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 2 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor SMPL over POST?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. SMPL leads Quality by 19 points; POST leads Momentum by 13 points; POST leads Risk Resilience by 6 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, POST or SMPL?
Analyst price targets imply +41.5% upside for POST and +47.8% for SMPL, so the Street currently favors SMPL. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, POST or SMPL?
Neither name separates on the peer-relative Value factor. The two are level on Value. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, POST or SMPL?
SMPL on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, POST or SMPL?
POST on the Momentum factor, by 13 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, POST or SMPL?
POST is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. POST on Risk Resilience, by 6 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is POST more profitable than SMPL?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 26.9% vs 32.1%; operating margin 10.1% vs 5.9%; ttm roe 8.7% vs -12.3%. POST leads on two measures and SMPL on one measure, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is SMPL's lead over POST getting stronger or weaker?
SMPL lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 15 to 2 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 119 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-05-04 and 2026-09-10. The lead has changed hands 3 times in that window, most recently on 2026-08-05, when SMPL moved ahead of POST.
What would change the POST vs SMPL verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: POST closes the Quality gap — currently 19 points behind, the largest single contributor to SMPL's edge; POST's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; SMPL starts generating bearish momentum or trend signals; the narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 13 points over 30 sessions, and a further 2-point move would eliminate SMPL's advantage entirely.
What do the current signals say about POST and SMPL?
POST: 1 bullish / 2 bearish, conflicted. SMPL: 0 bullish / 4 bearish / 2 neutral. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on POST is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On SMPL it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare POST and SMPL with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.