TSM vs SMCI Stock Comparison
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited vs Super Micro Computer, Inc.
TSM leads
TSM leads by 8 AIQ points, primarily on Quality and Risk Resilience.
Competitive: 4 of 6 evidence groups support TSM, and its signal state is cleanly positive.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
Super Micro Computer, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors TSM over SMCI, 68 versus 60 as of Sep 5, 2026. TSM's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality and risk resilience, while SMCI holds the stronger value profile. TSM also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor TSM today, and the comparison is rated Competitive on stability. TSM lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 8 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited and Super Micro Computer, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Compare TSM and SMCI against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Quality30%96 vs 53TSM +43
- Risk Resilience15%69 vs 36TSM +33
- Value30%42 vs 74SMCI +32
- Momentum25%63 vs 65Even
4 of 6 evidence groups favor TSM. TSM’s edge is concentrated in quality and risk resilience; SMCI keeps a meaningful value edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-04, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-03.
Largest factor move: Momentum +21
New signals
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
Largest factor move: Momentum +9
No new signals fired.
TSM's lead widened by 4 AIQ points in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — TSM and SMCI both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality and risk resilience.
SMCI (Super Micro Computer, Inc.): the counter-case, on value, valuation, technicals — but at materially higher volatility, 85.7% against 25.9%.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
TSMTSM on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value at 30% each.
Growth
SMCISMCI on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
SMCISMCI on the peer-relative Value factor, by 32 points.
Momentum
EvenThe two are level on Momentum.
Lower downside
TSMTSM on Risk Resilience, by 33 points.
Analyst upside
TSMTSM on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | TSM | SMCI | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +35.1% | +2.6% | TSM has more room |
| Target dispersion | +38% | +44.3% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Hold | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 6 | 9 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor TSM. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | TSM | 68 vs 60 |
| Fundamentals | TSMon balance | revenue growth 12% vs 8.6%; EPS growth 22.1% vs 133.3%; TTM ROE 39.3% vs 25.1%; gross margin 64.2% vs 10.8%; operating margin 56% vs 7.1% — TSM takes 4 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | SMCI | Value 42 vs 74 |
| Technicals | SMCI | Price vs 50-day 2% vs 24.9%; vs 200-day 15% vs 26.2% |
| Risk Resilience | TSM | Risk Resilience 69 vs 36 |
| Analyst expectations | TSM | Target upside 35.1% vs 2.6% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of TSM and SMCI and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The two are close enough that your objective, not the score, should decide.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 8 points.
- The leader's signal state is cleanly positive. (supports the conclusion holding)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on TSM.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Apr 23 – Sep 4TSM lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 8 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- TSM +8
- 68 vs 60
- 7 sessions ago
- TSM +2
- 62 vs 60
- 30 sessions ago
- TSM +7
- 70 vs 63
- 90 sessions ago
- TSM +14
- 65 vs 51
The lead has not changed hands in this window.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
4 bullish / 0 bearish
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (12.76%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
3 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (1.08%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
SMCI is conflicted, so the timing case there is weaker than the score alone suggests.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +2.85%, AIQ +6 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +4.54%, AIQ +2 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1SMCI closes the Quality gap — currently 43 points behind, the largest single contributor to TSM's edge.
- 2SMCI generates a confirmed bullish trend signal it does not currently carry, such as MACD Bullish Crossover.
- 3TSM's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
TSM leads on balance| Metric | TSM | SMCI |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 12% | 8.6% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 22.1% | 133.3% |
| Gross margin | 64.2% | 10.8% |
| Operating margin | 56% | 7.1% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 39.3% | 25.1% |
| Debt to equity | 0.15 | 0.46 |
Performance
TSM leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | TSM | SMCI |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 2.7% | 6.8% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | 2.1% | 27.2% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 3.3% | -4.9% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 26.6% | 26.4% |
| Year to date | 41.1% | 35.3% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 85.4% | -4.6% |
Technicals
SMCI has the stronger structure| Metric | TSM | SMCI |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 48.7 | 54.4 |
| ADX (14) | 7.6 | 25.1 |
| Price vs 50-day | 2% | 24.9% |
| Price vs 200-day | 15% | 26.2% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 25.9% | 85.7% |
Risk
TSM is the more resilient| Metric | TSM | SMCI |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.18 | 3.73 |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| Sortino ratio | 2.57 | 0.55 |
| Max drawdown | -21.6% | -65% |
| Current drawdown | -10.2% | -32.5% |
| Annualized volatility | 40.5% | 91.5% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -4.1% | -7.5% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, TSM or SMCI?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, TSM is the stronger of the two as of Sep 5, 2026, scoring 68 against SMCI's 60. The edge comes from quality and risk resilience. SMCI is not without a case — it holds the better value profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is TSM or SMCI the better buy right now?
TSM carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 5, 2026, and the comparison is rated Competitive — 4 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Competitive rating means the two are close enough that your objective, not the score, should decide.
Why does the AIQ Score favor TSM over SMCI?
The composite weights Quality at 30%, Value at 30%, Momentum at 25% and Risk Resilience at 15%. TSM leads Quality by 43 points; TSM leads Risk Resilience by 33 points; SMCI leads Value by 32 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, TSM or SMCI?
Analyst price targets imply +35.1% upside for TSM and +2.6% for SMCI, so the Street currently favors TSM. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, TSM or SMCI?
SMCI is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. SMCI on the peer-relative Value factor, by 32 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, TSM or SMCI?
SMCI on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, TSM or SMCI?
The two are level on Momentum. Momentum carries 25% of the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, TSM or SMCI?
TSM is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. TSM on Risk Resilience, by 33 points. The Risk Resilience factor weights 15% of the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is TSM more profitable than SMCI?
TSM leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 64.2% vs 10.8%; operating margin 56% vs 7.1%; ttm roe 39.3% vs 25.1%.
Is TSM's lead over SMCI getting stronger or weaker?
TSM lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 8 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-04-23 and 2026-09-04. The lead has not changed hands in that window.
What would change the TSM vs SMCI verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: SMCI closes the Quality gap — currently 43 points behind, the largest single contributor to TSM's edge; SMCI generates a confirmed bullish trend signal it does not currently carry, such as MACD Bullish Crossover; TSM's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict; a regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about TSM and SMCI?
TSM: 4 bullish / 0 bearish. SMCI: 3 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on TSM is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On SMCI it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare TSM and SMCI with others
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality (30%), Value (30%), Momentum (25%) and Risk (15%). Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.