SOFI vs UPST Stock Comparison
Compare SOFI and UPST across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between SOFI and UPST?
SOFI leads the current stock comparison as SoFi Technologies, Inc., with the clearest separation coming from quality and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
SoFi Technologies, Inc. vs Upstart Holdings, Inc.
SOFI leads
SOFI leads by 8 AIQ points, primarily on Quality and Momentum. Wall Street currently favors UPST on target upside.
Fragile: 3 of 6 evidence groups support SOFI.
SoFi Technologies, Inc.
Upstart Holdings, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors SOFI over UPST, 43 versus 35 as of Sep 9, 2026. SOFI's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality and momentum, while UPST holds the stronger value profile. SOFI also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors UPST. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor SOFI today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. SOFI lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 8 points over 30 sessions.
Compare SoFi Technologies, Inc. and Upstart Holdings, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare SOFI and UPST against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Quality62 vs 38SOFI +24
- Momentum54 vs 35SOFI +19
- Value27 vs 37UPST +10
- Risk Resilience21 vs 27UPST +6
3 of 6 evidence groups favor SOFI. SOFI’s edge is concentrated in quality and momentum; UPST keeps a meaningful value edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-07, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-06.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
SOFI's lead was unchanged in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — SOFI and UPST both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
SOFI (SoFi Technologies, Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality and momentum.
UPST (Upstart Holdings, Inc.): the counter-case, on value, risk resilience, valuation.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
SOFISOFI on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
SOFISOFI on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
UPSTUPST on the peer-relative Value factor, by 10 points.
Momentum
SOFISOFI on the Momentum factor, by 19 points.
Lower downside
UPSTUPST on Risk Resilience, by 6 points.
Analyst upside
UPSTUPST on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors SOFI, analyst targets favor UPST. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | SOFI | UPST | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +15% | +49.5% | UPST has more room |
| Target dispersion | +62.8% | +52.1% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 11 | 7 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor SOFI. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | SOFI | 43 vs 35 |
| Fundamentals | SOFIon balance | revenue growth 11.5% vs -16.5%; EPS growth -7.7% vs 3.5%; TTM ROE 6.2% vs 7.9%; gross margin 76.5% vs 74.4%; operating margin 13.2% vs 4.2% — SOFI takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | UPST | Value 27 vs 37 |
| Technicals | SOFI | Price vs 50-day 0.7% vs -10.9%; vs 200-day -8.8% vs -17.6% |
| Risk Resilience | UPST | Risk Resilience 21 vs 27 |
| Analyst expectations | UPST | Target upside 15% vs 49.5% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of SOFI and UPST and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 8 points.
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- Analyst targets on the leader are widely dispersed. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on SOFI.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Apr 28 – Sep 7SOFI lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 8 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- SOFI +8
- 43 vs 35
- 7 sessions ago
- SOFI +8
- 43 vs 35
- 30 sessions ago
- SOFI +6
- 46 vs 40
- 90 sessions ago
- SOFI +5
- 48 vs 43
The lead changed hands 4 times in this window, most recently on May 28 when SOFI moved ahead of UPST.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
0 bullish / 2 bearish / 2 neutral
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (11.68%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- ATR Expansion - Breakout Mode — neutral, volatility, short horizon (4.67%)
0 bullish / 3 bearish / 2 neutral
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (12.46%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -1.15%, AIQ 0 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -3.81%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1UPST closes the Quality gap — currently 24 points behind, the largest single contributor to SOFI's edge.
- 2UPST's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3SOFI starts generating bearish momentum or trend signals.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
SOFI leads on balance| Metric | SOFI | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 11.5% | -16.5% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -7.7% | 3.5% |
| Gross margin | 76.5% | 74.4% |
| Operating margin | 13.2% | 4.2% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 6.2% | 7.9% |
| Debt to equity | 0.31 | 2.54 |
Performance
SOFI leads 5 of 6 windows| Metric | SOFI | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 0.9% | -3.5% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -0.9% | -9.8% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 13.7% | -5.7% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -3.6% | 1% |
| Year to date | -30.4% | -35.9% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -25.6% | -56.5% |
Technicals
SOFI has the stronger structure| Metric | SOFI | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 49.5 | 42.4 |
| ADX (14) | 13.5 | 12.1 |
| Price vs 50-day | 0.7% | -10.9% |
| Price vs 200-day | -8.8% | -17.6% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 52.6% | 53% |
Risk
UPST is the more resilient| Metric | SOFI | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.36 | -1.02 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.52 | -1.6 |
| Max drawdown | -53% | -64.9% |
| Current drawdown | -43.4% | -59.3% |
| Annualized volatility | 57.6% | 66.2% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -6.1% | -7.3% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, SOFI or UPST?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, SOFI is the stronger of the two as of Sep 9, 2026, scoring 43 against UPST's 35. The edge comes from quality and momentum. UPST is not without a case — it holds the better value profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is SOFI or UPST the better buy right now?
SOFI carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 9, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor SOFI over UPST?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. SOFI leads Quality by 24 points; SOFI leads Momentum by 19 points; UPST leads Value by 10 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, SOFI or UPST?
Analyst price targets imply +15% upside for SOFI and +49.5% for UPST, so the Street currently favors UPST. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors SOFI. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, SOFI or UPST?
UPST is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. UPST on the peer-relative Value factor, by 10 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, SOFI or UPST?
SOFI on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, SOFI or UPST?
SOFI on the Momentum factor, by 19 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, SOFI or UPST?
UPST is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. UPST on Risk Resilience, by 6 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is SOFI more profitable than UPST?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 76.5% vs 74.4%; operating margin 13.2% vs 4.2%; ttm roe 6.2% vs 7.9%. SOFI leads on two measures and UPST on one measure, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is SOFI's lead over UPST getting stronger or weaker?
SOFI lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 8 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-04-28 and 2026-09-07. The lead has changed hands 4 times in that window, most recently on 2026-05-28, when SOFI moved ahead of UPST.
What would change the SOFI vs UPST verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: UPST closes the Quality gap — currently 24 points behind, the largest single contributor to SOFI's edge; UPST's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; SOFI starts generating bearish momentum or trend signals; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about SOFI and UPST?
SOFI: 0 bullish / 2 bearish / 2 neutral. UPST: 0 bullish / 3 bearish / 2 neutral. The most decision-relevant rule on SOFI is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On UPST it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare SOFI and UPST with others
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.