UMBF vs VLY Stock Comparison
UMBF currently leads VLY in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 59 vs 54. The clearest difference is momentum.
What is the main difference between UMBF and VLY?
UMBF leads the current stock comparison as UMB Financial Corporation, with the clearest separation coming from momentum and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
UMB Financial Corporation vs Valley National Bancorp
UMBF leads
UMBF leads by 5 AIQ points, primarily on Momentum and Quality. Wall Street currently favors VLY on target upside.
Fragile: 3 of 6 evidence groups support UMBF, and its signal state is cleanly positive.
UMB Financial Corporation
Valley National Bancorp
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors UMBF over VLY, 59 versus 54 as of Oct 21, 2026. UMBF's advantage is driven primarily by stronger momentum and quality. UMBF also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors VLY. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor UMBF today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 5 points. UMBF lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 5 points over 30 sessions.
Compare UMB Financial Corporation and Valley National Bancorp across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare UMBF and VLY against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum57 vs 47UMBF +10
- Quality62 vs 55UMBF +7
- Value56 vs 54Even
- Risk Resilience60 vs 61Even
3 of 6 evidence groups favor UMBF. UMBF’s edge is concentrated in momentum and quality.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Momentum +19
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 2 active signals are unchanged.
Largest factor move: Momentum +9
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 2 active signals are unchanged.
UMBF's lead widened by 3 AIQ points in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — UMBF and VLY both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
UMBF (UMB Financial Corporation): the stronger current systematic profile, led by momentum and quality.
VLY (Valley National Bancorp): the counter-case, on analyst expectations.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
UMBFUMBF on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
UMBFUMBF on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
EvenThe two are level on Value.
Momentum
UMBFUMBF on the Momentum factor, by 10 points.
Lower downside
UMBFUMBF carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility.
Analyst upside
VLYVLY on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors UMBF, analyst targets favor VLY. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | UMBF | VLY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +22.1% | +27.2% | VLY has more room |
| Target dispersion | +31.4% | +12.1% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 10 | 5 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Dividend growth
| Dividend metric | UMBF | VLY |
|---|---|---|
| 5Y dividend CAGR | 5.45% | 0.00% |
| 2020 regular DPS | $1.250 | $0.440 |
| 2025 regular DPS | $1.630 | $0.440 |
| Years increased | 5 | 0 |
| No cut in window | Yes | Yes |
| Cohort rank | #234 | #349 |
UMBF grew its split-adjusted regular dividend faster over 2020–2025 — 5.45% a year against VLY's 0.00%. Neither company reduced its regular dividend in any year of the window.
Yield and payout ratio shown elsewhere on this page are current values, not part of the study window.
Split-adjusted regular dividends per share, 2020–2025, excluding special dividends. Research as of Sep 19, 2026.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor UMBF. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | UMBF | 59 vs 54 |
| Fundamentals | UMBFon balance | revenue growth 28.8% vs -62.6%; EPS growth 6.5% vs 10.7%; TTM ROE 12.2% vs 8.9%; gross margin 58.5% vs 50.5%; operating margin 22.1% vs 14.5% — UMBF takes 4 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | Even | Value 56 vs 54 |
| Technicals | UMBF | Price vs 50-day -3.7% vs -3.7%; vs 200-day 1.8% vs -3.6% |
| Risk Resilience | Even | Risk Resilience 60 vs 61 |
| Analyst expectations | VLY | Target upside 22.1% vs 27.2% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of UMBF and VLY and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 5 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader's signal state is cleanly positive. (supports the conclusion holding)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on UMBF.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20UMBF lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 5 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- UMBF +5
- 59 vs 54
- 7 sessions ago
- UMBF +4
- 55 vs 51
- 30 sessions ago
- UMBF +4
- 52 vs 48
- 90 sessions ago
- UMBF +4
- 64 vs 60
The lead changed hands once in this window, most recently on Sep 22 when UMBF moved ahead of VLY.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
UMBF and VLY carry the same 2 signals, so the signals do not separate them: Golden Cross Active, MACD Bullish Crossover.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price is down while the AIQ Score moved up 5 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price -0.14%, AIQ +5 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +1.01%, AIQ +2 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1VLY closes the Momentum gap — currently 10 points behind, the largest single contributor to UMBF's edge.
- 2VLY generates a confirmed bullish trend signal it does not currently carry, such as EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish or Uptrend Structure Active.
- 3UMBF's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
UMBF leads on balance| Metric | UMBF | VLY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 28.8% | -62.6% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 6.5% | 10.7% |
| Gross margin | 58.5% | 50.5% |
| Operating margin | 22.1% | 14.5% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 12.2% | 8.9% |
| Debt to equity | 0.44 | 0.44 |
Performance
UMBF leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | UMBF | VLY |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 2.3% | 2.9% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -0.8% | -1.8% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -5.5% | -11.2% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 8.2% | -3.8% |
| Year to date | 15.7% | 10.4% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 23.9% | 32.6% |
Technicals
UMBF has the stronger structure| Metric | UMBF | VLY |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 58.2 | 56.7 |
| ADX (14) | 29.4 | 37.7 |
| Price vs 50-day | -3.7% | -3.7% |
| Price vs 200-day | 1.8% | -3.6% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 19.9% | 22.4% |
Risk
Split| Metric | UMBF | VLY |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.68 | 0.81 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.79 | 1.06 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.21 | 1.78 |
| Max drawdown | -18.9% | -18.3% |
| Current drawdown | -12.5% | -15.1% |
| Annualized volatility | 24.5% | 25.4% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -2.1% | -2.3% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, UMBF or VLY?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, UMBF is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 59 against VLY's 54. The edge comes from momentum and quality. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is UMBF or VLY the better buy right now?
UMBF carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 5 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor UMBF over VLY?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. UMBF leads Momentum by 10 points; UMBF leads Quality by 7 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, UMBF or VLY?
Analyst price targets imply +22.1% upside for UMBF and +27.2% for VLY, so the Street currently favors VLY. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors UMBF. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, UMBF or VLY?
Neither name separates on the peer-relative Value factor. The two are level on Value. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, UMBF or VLY?
UMBF on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, UMBF or VLY?
UMBF on the Momentum factor, by 10 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, UMBF or VLY?
UMBF is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. UMBF carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is UMBF more profitable than VLY?
UMBF leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 58.5% vs 50.5%; operating margin 22.1% vs 14.5%; ttm roe 12.2% vs 8.9%.
Is UMBF's lead over VLY getting stronger or weaker?
UMBF lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 5 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has changed hands once in that window, most recently on 2026-09-22, when UMBF moved ahead of VLY.
What would change the UMBF vs VLY verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: VLY closes the Momentum gap — currently 10 points behind, the largest single contributor to UMBF's edge; VLY generates a confirmed bullish trend signal it does not currently carry, such as EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish or Uptrend Structure Active; UMBF's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about UMBF and VLY?
UMBF: 2 bullish / 0 bearish. VLY: 2 bullish / 0 bearish. The most decision-relevant rule on UMBF is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On VLY it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare UMBF and VLY with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.