AA vs TX Stock Comparison
AA currently leads TX in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 53 vs 52. The clearest difference is quality, while TX has the stronger risk resilience profile.
What is the main difference between AA and TX?
AA leads the current stock comparison as Alcoa Corporation, with the clearest separation coming from quality and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Alcoa Corporation vs Ternium S.A.
AA leads
AA leads by 1 AIQ points, primarily on Quality and Value, having only recently taken the lead back from TX.
Fragile: 3 of 6 evidence groups support AA, the lead recently changed hands, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Alcoa Corporation
Ternium S.A.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors AA over TX, 53 versus 52 as of Oct 31, 2026. AA's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality and value, while TX holds the stronger risk resilience profile. AA also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor AA today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 1 points. AA lead: Reversed — TX led by 6 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; AA now leads by 1.
Compare Alcoa Corporation and Ternium S.A. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare AA and TX against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Risk Resilience52 vs 66TX +14
- Quality52 vs 40AA +12
- Momentum31 vs 40TX +9
- Value73 vs 67AA +6
3 of 6 evidence groups favor AA. AA’s edge is concentrated in quality and value; TX keeps a meaningful risk resilience edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-28, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-27.
No factor moved materially.
New signals
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
Largest factor move: Momentum -2, not enough on its own to move the overall score.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 3 active signals are unchanged.
AA's lead was unchanged in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — AA and TX both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
AA (Alcoa Corporation): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality and value.
TX (Ternium S.A.): the counter-case, on risk resilience, momentum, technicals.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
AAAA on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
TXTX on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
AAAA on the peer-relative Value factor, by 6 points.
Momentum
TXTX on the Momentum factor, by 9 points.
Lower downside
TXTX on Risk Resilience, by 14 points.
Analyst upside
AAAA on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | AA | TX | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +68% | +8.3% | AA has more room |
| Target dispersion | +41% | +35% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 7 | 6 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor AA. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | Even | 53 vs 52 |
| Fundamentals | AAon balance | revenue growth -6.6% vs 10.3%; EPS growth 18.8% vs 63.6%; TTM ROE 21.4% vs 5.8%; gross margin 21.9% vs 17.4%; operating margin 11.3% vs 7.5% — AA takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | AA | Value 73 vs 67 |
| Technicals | TX | Price vs 50-day -13.1% vs -6.5%; vs 200-day -29% vs 13.5% |
| Risk Resilience | TX | Risk Resilience 52 vs 66 |
| Analyst expectations | AA | Target upside 68% vs 8.3% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of AA and TX and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 1 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on AA.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 29 – Oct 28AA lead: Reversed — TX led by 6 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; AA now leads by 1.
- Today
- AA +1
- 53 vs 52
- 7 sessions ago
- TX +1
- 52 vs 53
- 30 sessions ago
- TX +6
- 51 vs 57
- 90 sessions ago
- TX +6
- 56 vs 62
The lead has not changed hands in this window.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 2 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted
Only AA
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (25.60%)
- ATR Expansion - Breakout Mode — neutral, volatility, short horizon (3.77%)
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
1 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only TX
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (18.79%)
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
Both carry 1 more signal that do not separate them: Bollinger Band Squeeze.
AA leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -1.75%, AIQ 0 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -2.39%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1TX closes the Quality gap — currently 12 points behind, the largest single contributor to AA's edge.
- 2TX's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it.
- 3AA's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
AA leads on balance| Metric | AA | TX |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -6.6% | 10.3% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 18.8% | 63.6% |
| Gross margin | 21.9% | 17.4% |
| Operating margin | 11.3% | 7.5% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 21.4% | 5.8% |
| Debt to equity | 0.58 | 0.24 |
Performance
TX leads 5 of 6 windows| Metric | AA | TX |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -1.3% | -8.5% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -4.3% | -0.7% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -10.6% | 9.8% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -35.6% | 26.1% |
| Year to date | -24.3% | 41.2% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 2% | 50.1% |
Technicals
TX has the stronger structure| Metric | AA | TX |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 37.4 | 42.1 |
| ADX (14) | 18.1 | 23.4 |
| Price vs 50-day | -13.1% | -6.5% |
| Price vs 200-day | -29% | 13.5% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 34.2% | 37.3% |
Risk
TX is the more resilient| Metric | AA | TX |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.63 | 1.02 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.23 | 1.14 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.38 | 1.9 |
| Max drawdown | -54.8% | -18.9% |
| Current drawdown | -52% | -9.7% |
| Annualized volatility | 53.3% | 32.1% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -5.5% | -3.2% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, AA or TX?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, AA is the stronger of the two as of Oct 31, 2026, scoring 53 against TX's 52. The edge comes from quality and value. TX is not without a case — it holds the better risk resilience profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is AA or TX the better buy right now?
AA carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 31, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 1 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor AA over TX?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. TX leads Risk Resilience by 14 points; AA leads Quality by 12 points; TX leads Momentum by 9 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, AA or TX?
Analyst price targets imply +68% upside for AA and +8.3% for TX, so the Street currently favors AA. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, AA or TX?
AA is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. AA on the peer-relative Value factor, by 6 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, AA or TX?
TX on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, AA or TX?
TX on the Momentum factor, by 9 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, AA or TX?
TX is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. TX on Risk Resilience, by 14 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is AA more profitable than TX?
AA leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 21.9% vs 17.4%; operating margin 11.3% vs 7.5%; ttm roe 21.4% vs 5.8%.
Is AA's lead over TX getting stronger or weaker?
AA lead: Reversed — TX led by 6 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; AA now leads by 1. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-29 and 2026-10-28. The lead has not changed hands in that window.
What would change the AA vs TX verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: TX closes the Quality gap — currently 12 points behind, the largest single contributor to AA's edge; TX's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it; AA's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about AA and TX?
AA: 1 bullish / 2 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted. TX: 1 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on AA is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On TX it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare AA and TX with others
Continue your research
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How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.