AA vs VALE Stock Comparison
AA currently leads VALE in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 53 vs 43. The clearest difference is value.
What is the main difference between AA and VALE?
AA leads the current stock comparison as Alcoa Corporation, with the clearest separation coming from value and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Alcoa Corporation vs Vale S.A.
AA leads
AA leads by 10 AIQ points, primarily on Value and Quality, and the lead has widened from 7 points over 30 sessions.
Fragile: 3 of 6 evidence groups support AA, its lead is widening, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Alcoa Corporation
Vale S.A.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors AA over VALE, 53 versus 43 as of Oct 31, 2026. AA's advantage is driven primarily by stronger value and quality. AA also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor AA today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. AA lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 7 to 10 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Alcoa Corporation and Vale S.A. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare AA and VALE against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Value73 vs 57AA +16
- Quality52 vs 42AA +10
- Momentum31 vs 25AA +6
- Risk Resilience52 vs 49Even
3 of 6 evidence groups favor AA. AA’s edge is concentrated in value and quality.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-28, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-27.
No factor moved materially.
New signals
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
Largest factor move: Risk Resilience -2
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 7 active signals are unchanged.
AA's lead widened by 1 AIQ point in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — AA and VALE both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
AA (Alcoa Corporation): the stronger current systematic profile, led by value and quality.
VALE (Vale S.A.): the counter-case, on fundamentals.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
AAAA on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
AAAA on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
AAAA on the peer-relative Value factor, by 16 points.
Momentum
AAAA on the Momentum factor, by 6 points.
Lower downside
VALEVALE carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility.
Analyst upside
AAAA on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | AA | VALE | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +68% | +41.4% | AA has more room |
| Target dispersion | +41% | +40.4% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 7 | 7 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor AA. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | AA | 53 vs 43 |
| Fundamentals | VALEon balance | revenue growth -6.6% vs 13.3%; EPS growth 18.8% vs -27.3%; TTM ROE 21.4% vs 5.8%; gross margin 21.9% vs 34.2%; operating margin 11.3% vs 26.1% — VALE takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | AA | Value 73 vs 57 |
| Technicals | Even | Price vs 50-day -13.1% vs -18.5%; vs 200-day -29% vs -22.5% |
| Risk Resilience | Even | Risk Resilience 52 vs 49 |
| Analyst expectations | AA | Target upside 68% vs 41.4% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of AA and VALE and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 10 points.
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader's advantage has been widening. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on AA.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 29 – Oct 28AA lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 7 to 10 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- AA +10
- 53 vs 43
- 7 sessions ago
- AA +8
- 52 vs 44
- 30 sessions ago
- AA +7
- 51 vs 44
- 90 sessions ago
- AA +2
- 56 vs 54
The lead changed hands 9 times in this window, most recently on Sep 14 when AA moved ahead of VALE.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 2 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted
Only AA
- ATR Expansion - Breakout Mode — neutral, volatility, short horizon (3.77%)
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
2 bullish / 4 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only VALE
- BB Lower Band Breach — bullish, volatility, short horizon
- Keltner Channel Breakdown — bearish, volatility, short horizon
- RSI Oversold - Potential Bounce — bullish, momentum, short horizon
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
Both carry 3 more signals that do not separate them: Bollinger Band Squeeze, Death Cross Active, Downtrend Structure Active.
AA leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -1.75%, AIQ 0 points).
Price is up while the AIQ Score moved down 1 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price +1.88%, AIQ -1 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1VALE closes the Value gap — currently 16 points behind, the largest single contributor to AA's edge.
- 2VALE's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3AA's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
VALE leads on balance| Metric | AA | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -6.6% | 13.3% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 18.8% | -27.3% |
| Gross margin | 21.9% | 34.2% |
| Operating margin | 11.3% | 26.1% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 21.4% | 5.8% |
| Debt to equity | 0.58 | 0.58 |
Performance
Split across windows| Metric | AA | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -1.3% | -9.7% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -4.3% | -13.9% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -10.6% | -19.7% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -35.6% | -27.6% |
| Year to date | -24.3% | -6.2% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 2% | 2.1% |
Technicals
Split| Metric | AA | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 37.4 | 16.8 |
| ADX (14) | 18.1 | 30.8 |
| Price vs 50-day | -13.1% | -18.5% |
| Price vs 200-day | -29% | -22.5% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 34.2% | 30.4% |
Risk
Split| Metric | AA | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.63 | 1.13 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.23 | 0.02 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.38 | 0.02 |
| Max drawdown | -54.8% | -35.6% |
| Current drawdown | -52% | -35.6% |
| Annualized volatility | 53.3% | 34% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -5.5% | -4% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, AA or VALE?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, AA is the stronger of the two as of Oct 31, 2026, scoring 53 against VALE's 43. The edge comes from value and quality. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is AA or VALE the better buy right now?
AA carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 31, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor AA over VALE?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. AA leads Value by 16 points; AA leads Quality by 10 points; AA leads Momentum by 6 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, AA or VALE?
Analyst price targets imply +68% upside for AA and +41.4% for VALE, so the Street currently favors AA. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, AA or VALE?
AA is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. AA on the peer-relative Value factor, by 16 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, AA or VALE?
AA on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, AA or VALE?
AA on the Momentum factor, by 6 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, AA or VALE?
VALE is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. VALE carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is AA more profitable than VALE?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 21.9% vs 34.2%; operating margin 11.3% vs 26.1%; ttm roe 21.4% vs 5.8%. AA leads on one measure and VALE on two measures, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is AA's lead over VALE getting stronger or weaker?
AA lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 7 to 10 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-29 and 2026-10-28. The lead has changed hands 9 times in that window, most recently on 2026-09-14, when AA moved ahead of VALE.
What would change the AA vs VALE verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: VALE closes the Value gap — currently 16 points behind, the largest single contributor to AA's edge; VALE's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; AA's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about AA and VALE?
AA: 1 bullish / 2 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted. VALE: 2 bullish / 4 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on AA is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On VALE it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare AA and VALE with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.