AEG vs BHP Stock Comparison
Aegon Ltd. vs BHP Group Limited
BHP leads
BHP leads by 1 AIQ points, primarily on Momentum and Quality, having only recently taken the lead back from AEG. Wall Street currently favors AEG on target upside.
Fragile: 2 of 6 evidence groups support BHP, the lead recently changed hands, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Aegon Ltd.
BHP Group Limited
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors BHP over AEG, 61 versus 60 as of Sep 5, 2026. BHP's advantage is driven primarily by stronger momentum and quality, while AEG holds the stronger risk resilience profile. BHP also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors AEG. 2 of 6 covered evidence groups favor BHP today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 1 points. BHP lead: Reversed — AEG led by 6 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; BHP now leads by 1.
Compare Aegon Ltd. and BHP Group Limited across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Compare AEG and BHP against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum25%50 vs 64BHP +14
- Risk Resilience15%75 vs 65AEG +10
- Value30%55 vs 46AEG +9
- Quality30%66 vs 72BHP +6
2 of 6 evidence groups favor BHP. BHP’s edge is concentrated in momentum and quality; AEG keeps a meaningful risk resilience edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-04, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-03.
Largest factor move: Momentum -1
New signals
- EMA Ribbon Compression — neutral, trend, medium horizon
Largest factor move: Momentum -9
No new signals fired.
BHP's lead narrowed by 3 AIQ points in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — AEG and BHP both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
BHP (BHP Group Limited): the stronger current systematic profile, led by momentum and quality.
AEG (Aegon Ltd.): the counter-case, on risk resilience, value, valuation.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
BHPBHP on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value at 30% each.
Growth
AEGAEG on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
AEGAEG on the peer-relative Value factor, by 9 points.
Momentum
BHPBHP on the Momentum factor, by 14 points.
Lower downside
AEGAEG on Risk Resilience, by 10 points.
Analyst upside
AEGAEG on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors BHP, analyst targets favor AEG. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | AEG | BHP | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | -17.9% | -20.9% | AEG has more room |
| Target dispersion | 0% | +65.7% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Hold | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 1 | 2 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
2 of 6 covered evidence groups favor BHP. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | Even | 60 vs 61 |
| Fundamentals | BHPon balance | TTM ROE 12.2% vs 19.5%; gross margin 82.5% vs 74.9%; operating margin 3.7% vs 40.1% — BHP takes 2 of 3 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | AEG | Value 55 vs 46 |
| Technicals | BHP | Price vs 50-day 0.4% vs 3.8%; vs 200-day 12.5% vs 18.2% |
| Risk Resilience | AEG | Risk Resilience 75 vs 65 |
| Analyst expectations | AEG | Target upside -17.9% vs -20.9% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of AEG and BHP and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 1 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Only 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Analyst targets on the leader are widely dispersed. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on BHP.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Apr 23 – Sep 4BHP lead: Reversed — AEG led by 6 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; BHP now leads by 1.
- Today
- BHP +1
- 60 vs 61
- 7 sessions ago
- BHP +2
- 61 vs 63
- 30 sessions ago
- AEG +6
- 70 vs 64
- 90 sessions ago
- AEG +13
- 69 vs 56
The lead changed hands 2 times in this window, most recently on Aug 29 when BHP moved ahead of AEG.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
3 bullish / 1 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (12.01%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
3 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (13.86%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
BHP leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -0.65%, AIQ 0 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved down over the latest session (price -2.47%, AIQ -3 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1AEG closes the Momentum gap — currently 14 points behind, the largest single contributor to BHP's edge.
- 2AEG generates a confirmed bullish trend signal it does not currently carry, such as MACD Bullish Crossover.
- 3BHP's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 3 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
BHP leads on balance| Metric | AEG | BHP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 0% | 10.8% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 0% | -25.9% |
| Gross margin | 82.5% | 74.9% |
| Operating margin | 3.7% | 40.1% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 12.2% | 19.5% |
| Debt to equity | 0.43 | 0.53 |
Performance
Split across windows| Metric | AEG | BHP |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -0.5% | -5% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -4.1% | 0% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 10.9% | 9.3% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 28.5% | 25.8% |
| Year to date | 18.5% | 49.8% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 17.2% | 61.8% |
Technicals
BHP has the stronger structure| Metric | AEG | BHP |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 35.6 | 55.2 |
| ADX (14) | 13 | 21.7 |
| Price vs 50-day | 0.4% | 3.8% |
| Price vs 200-day | 12.5% | 18.2% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 15.8% | 29% |
Risk
AEG is the more resilient| Metric | AEG | BHP |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.82 | 1.57 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.75 | 1.48 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.95 | 2.32 |
| Max drawdown | -15.7% | -21.4% |
| Current drawdown | -4.1% | -8.4% |
| Annualized volatility | 24.2% | 34.3% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -2.2% | -3.2% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, AEG or BHP?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, BHP is the stronger of the two as of Sep 5, 2026, scoring 61 against AEG's 60. The edge comes from momentum and quality. AEG is not without a case — it holds the better risk resilience profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is AEG or BHP the better buy right now?
BHP carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 5, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 1 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor BHP over AEG?
The composite weights Quality at 30%, Value at 30%, Momentum at 25% and Risk Resilience at 15%. BHP leads Momentum by 14 points; AEG leads Risk Resilience by 10 points; AEG leads Value by 9 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, AEG or BHP?
Analyst price targets imply -17.9% upside for AEG and -20.9% for BHP, so the Street currently favors AEG. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors BHP. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, AEG or BHP?
AEG is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. AEG on the peer-relative Value factor, by 9 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, AEG or BHP?
AEG on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, AEG or BHP?
BHP on the Momentum factor, by 14 points. Momentum carries 25% of the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, AEG or BHP?
AEG is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. AEG on Risk Resilience, by 10 points. The Risk Resilience factor weights 15% of the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is AEG more profitable than BHP?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 82.5% vs 74.9%; operating margin 3.7% vs 40.1%; ttm roe 12.2% vs 19.5%. AEG leads on one measure and BHP on two measures, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is BHP's lead over AEG getting stronger or weaker?
BHP lead: Reversed — AEG led by 6 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; BHP now leads by 1. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-04-23 and 2026-09-04. The lead has changed hands 2 times in that window, most recently on 2026-08-29, when BHP moved ahead of AEG.
What would change the AEG vs BHP verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: AEG closes the Momentum gap — currently 14 points behind, the largest single contributor to BHP's edge; AEG generates a confirmed bullish trend signal it does not currently carry, such as MACD Bullish Crossover; BHP's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 3 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about AEG and BHP?
AEG: 3 bullish / 1 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted. BHP: 3 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on AEG is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On BHP it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare AEG and BHP with others
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality (30%), Value (30%), Momentum (25%) and Risk (15%). Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.