AFL vs AJG Stock Comparison
Compare AFL and AJG across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between AFL and AJG?
AFL leads the current stock comparison as Aflac Incorporated, with the clearest separation coming from risk resilience and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Aflac Incorporated vs Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
AFL leads
AFL leads by 10 AIQ points, primarily on Risk Resilience and Value, having only recently taken the lead back from AJG. Wall Street currently favors AJG on target upside.
Fragile: 4 of 6 evidence groups support AFL, the lead recently changed hands, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Aflac Incorporated
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors AFL over AJG, 53 versus 43 as of Sep 11, 2026. AFL's advantage is driven primarily by stronger risk resilience and value. AFL also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors AJG. 4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor AFL today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. AFL lead: Reversed — AJG led by 1 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; AFL now leads by 10.
Compare Aflac Incorporated and Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare AFL and AJG against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Risk Resilience75 vs 53AFL +22
- Value43 vs 29AFL +14
- Momentum36 vs 29AFL +7
- Quality66 vs 65Even
4 of 6 evidence groups favor AFL. AFL’s edge is concentrated in risk resilience and value.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-10, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-09.
Largest factor move: Momentum -6
No new signals fired.
Largest factor move: Momentum -4
New signals
- Keltner Channel Breakdown — bearish, volatility, short horizon
- EMA Ribbon Compression — neutral, trend, medium horizon
AFL's lead narrowed by 1 AIQ points in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — AFL and AJG both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
AFL (Aflac Incorporated): the stronger current systematic profile, led by risk resilience and value.
AJG (Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.): the counter-case, on technicals, analyst expectations — but at materially higher volatility, 32.1% against 20.7%.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
AFLAFL on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
AFLAFL on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
AFLAFL on the peer-relative Value factor, by 14 points.
Momentum
AFLAFL on the Momentum factor, by 7 points.
Lower downside
AFLAFL on Risk Resilience, by 22 points.
Analyst upside
AJGAJG on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors AFL, analyst targets favor AJG. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | AFL | AJG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +0.8% | +13% | AJG has more room |
| Target dispersion | +33.6% | +32.8% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 7 | 10 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor AFL. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | AFL | 53 vs 43 |
| Fundamentals | AFLon balance | revenue growth -5.4% vs -15.9%; EPS growth -17.6% vs -60.6%; TTM ROE 16.4% vs 6.7%; gross margin 53.9% vs 74.6%; operating margin 32.2% vs 17% — AFL takes 4 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | AFL | Value 43 vs 29 |
| Technicals | AJG | Price vs 50-day -4.9% vs -5.7%; vs 200-day 0.1% vs 4% |
| Risk Resilience | AFL | Risk Resilience 75 vs 53 |
| Analyst expectations | AJG | Target upside 0.8% vs 13% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of AFL and AJG and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 10 points.
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on AFL.
How the comparison changed
119 daily snapshots · May 4 – Sep 10AFL lead: Reversed — AJG led by 1 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; AFL now leads by 10.
- Today
- AFL +10
- 53 vs 43
- 7 sessions ago
- AJG +1
- 54 vs 55
- 30 sessions ago
- AJG +1
- 51 vs 52
- 90 sessions ago
- AFL +3
- 63 vs 60
The lead changed hands 3 times in this window, most recently on Aug 19 when AJG moved ahead of AFL.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (5.76%)
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
2 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (8.96%)
- Keltner Channel Breakdown — bearish, volatility, short horizon
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
AFL leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price is up while the AIQ Score moved down 2 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price +0.71%, AIQ -2 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved down over the latest session (price -1.23%, AIQ -1 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1AJG closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 22 points behind, the largest single contributor to AFL's edge.
- 2AJG's Keltner Channel Breakdown resolves — a bearish volatility rule currently active against it.
- 3AFL's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
AFL leads on balance| Metric | AFL | AJG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -5.4% | -15.9% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -17.6% | -60.6% |
| Gross margin | 53.9% | 74.6% |
| Operating margin | 32.2% | 17% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 16.4% | 6.7% |
| Debt to equity | 0.29 | 0.09 |
Performance
Split across windows| Metric | AFL | AJG |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -2.4% | -8% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -5.2% | -4.8% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -2.3% | 10.5% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 4.7% | 16% |
| Year to date | 3.8% | -6% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 7.6% | -18.7% |
Technicals
AJG has the stronger structure| Metric | AFL | AJG |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 43.7 | 37.5 |
| ADX (14) | 29 | 21.9 |
| Price vs 50-day | -4.9% | -5.7% |
| Price vs 200-day | 0.1% | 4% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 20.7% | 32.1% |
Risk
AFL is the more resilient| Metric | AFL | AJG |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.17 | -0.31 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.29 | -0.63 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.44 | -0.87 |
| Max drawdown | -11.6% | -38.2% |
| Current drawdown | -11.6% | -21.6% |
| Annualized volatility | 17.4% | 31.2% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -1.7% | -2.8% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, AFL or AJG?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, AFL is the stronger of the two as of Sep 11, 2026, scoring 53 against AJG's 43. The edge comes from risk resilience and value. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is AFL or AJG the better buy right now?
AFL carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 11, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 4 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor AFL over AJG?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. AFL leads Risk Resilience by 22 points; AFL leads Value by 14 points; AFL leads Momentum by 7 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, AFL or AJG?
Analyst price targets imply +0.8% upside for AFL and +13% for AJG, so the Street currently favors AJG. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors AFL. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, AFL or AJG?
AFL is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. AFL on the peer-relative Value factor, by 14 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, AFL or AJG?
AFL on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, AFL or AJG?
AFL on the Momentum factor, by 7 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, AFL or AJG?
AFL is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. AFL on Risk Resilience, by 22 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is AFL more profitable than AJG?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 53.9% vs 74.6%; operating margin 32.2% vs 17%; ttm roe 16.4% vs 6.7%. AFL leads on two measures and AJG on one measure, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is AFL's lead over AJG getting stronger or weaker?
AFL lead: Reversed — AJG led by 1 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; AFL now leads by 10. This is measured from 119 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-05-04 and 2026-09-10. The lead has changed hands 3 times in that window, most recently on 2026-08-19, when AJG moved ahead of AFL.
What would change the AFL vs AJG verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: AJG closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 22 points behind, the largest single contributor to AFL's edge; AJG's Keltner Channel Breakdown resolves — a bearish volatility rule currently active against it; AFL's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about AFL and AJG?
AFL: 1 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. AJG: 2 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on AFL is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On AJG it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare AFL and AJG with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.