AMCR vs PKG Stock Comparison
Compare AMCR and PKG across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between AMCR and PKG?
AMCR leads the current stock comparison as Amcor plc, with the clearest separation coming from value and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Amcor plc vs Packaging Corporation of America
AMCR leads
AMCR leads by 8 AIQ points, primarily on Value and Momentum, and the lead has widened from 1 points over 30 sessions. Wall Street currently favors PKG on target upside.
Fragile: 2 of 6 evidence groups support AMCR, its lead is widening, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Amcor plc
Packaging Corporation of America
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors AMCR over PKG, 47 versus 39 as of Sep 6, 2026. AMCR's advantage is driven primarily by stronger value and momentum, while PKG holds the stronger risk resilience profile. AMCR also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors PKG. 2 of 6 covered evidence groups favor AMCR today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: only 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. AMCR lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 1 to 8 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Amcor plc and Packaging Corporation of America across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare AMCR and PKG against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Value30%63 vs 34AMCR +29
- Momentum25%45 vs 26AMCR +19
- Risk Resilience15%55 vs 70PKG +15
- Quality30%29 vs 40PKG +11
2 of 6 evidence groups favor AMCR. AMCR’s edge is concentrated in value and momentum; PKG keeps a meaningful risk resilience edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-05, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-04.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
AMCR's lead was unchanged in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — AMCR and PKG both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
AMCR (Amcor plc): the stronger current systematic profile, led by value and momentum.
PKG (Packaging Corporation of America): the counter-case, on risk resilience, quality, analyst expectations.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
AMCRAMCR on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value at 30% each.
Growth
AMCRAMCR on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
AMCRAMCR on the peer-relative Value factor, by 29 points.
Momentum
AMCRAMCR on the Momentum factor, by 19 points.
Lower downside
PKGPKG on Risk Resilience, by 15 points.
Analyst upside
PKGPKG on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors AMCR, analyst targets favor PKG. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | AMCR | PKG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +5.3% | +10.9% | PKG has more room |
| Target dispersion | +31.5% | +30.4% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 5 | 7 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
2 of 6 covered evidence groups favor AMCR. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | AMCR | 47 vs 39 |
| Fundamentals | Even | revenue growth 8.2% vs 5.2%; EPS growth 40% vs 12.5%; TTM ROE 9.5% vs 14.9%; gross margin 20% vs 20.1%; operating margin 8.1% vs 12.7% |
| Valuation | AMCR | Value 63 vs 34 |
| Technicals | Even | Price vs 50-day -0.4% vs -2.1%; vs 200-day 5.6% vs 6.3% |
| Risk Resilience | PKG | Risk Resilience 55 vs 70 |
| Analyst expectations | PKG | Target upside 5.3% vs 10.9% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of AMCR and PKG and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 8 points.
- Only 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader's advantage has been widening. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on AMCR.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Apr 24 – Sep 5AMCR lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 1 to 8 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- AMCR +8
- 47 vs 39
- 7 sessions ago
- AMCR +9
- 47 vs 38
- 30 sessions ago
- AMCR +1
- 49 vs 48
- 90 sessions ago
- AMCR +1
- 53 vs 52
The lead changed hands 5 times in this window, most recently on Aug 6 when AMCR moved ahead of PKG.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
2 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (6.03%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
1 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (8.56%)
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
AMCR leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -1.61%, AIQ 0 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +1.14%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1PKG closes the Value gap — currently 29 points behind, the largest single contributor to AMCR's edge.
- 2PKG's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it.
- 3AMCR's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 2 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
Split| Metric | AMCR | PKG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 8.2% | 5.2% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 40% | 12.5% |
| Gross margin | 20% | 20.1% |
| Operating margin | 8.1% | 12.7% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 9.5% | 14.9% |
| Debt to equity | 1.28 | 0.94 |
Performance
PKG leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | AMCR | PKG |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -3.3% | -1.3% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -5.7% | -7.3% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 18.4% | 6.5% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 4.3% | 6.6% |
| Year to date | 8.3% | 15% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 8.1% | 11.4% |
Technicals
Split| Metric | AMCR | PKG |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 47.8 | 32.1 |
| ADX (14) | 17.3 | 18.6 |
| Price vs 50-day | -0.4% | -2.1% |
| Price vs 200-day | 5.6% | 6.3% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 22.9% | 19.6% |
Risk
PKG is the more resilient| Metric | AMCR | PKG |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.83 | 0.72 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.48 | 0.51 |
| Max drawdown | -27.5% | -17.7% |
| Current drawdown | -10.7% | -7.8% |
| Annualized volatility | 31.3% | 28% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -2.6% | -2.7% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, AMCR or PKG?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, AMCR is the stronger of the two as of Sep 6, 2026, scoring 47 against PKG's 39. The edge comes from value and momentum. PKG is not without a case — it holds the better risk resilience profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is AMCR or PKG the better buy right now?
AMCR carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 6, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: only 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor AMCR over PKG?
The composite weights Quality at 30%, Value at 30%, Momentum at 25% and Risk Resilience at 15%. AMCR leads Value by 29 points; AMCR leads Momentum by 19 points; PKG leads Risk Resilience by 15 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, AMCR or PKG?
Analyst price targets imply +5.3% upside for AMCR and +10.9% for PKG, so the Street currently favors PKG. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors AMCR. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, AMCR or PKG?
AMCR is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. AMCR on the peer-relative Value factor, by 29 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, AMCR or PKG?
AMCR on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, AMCR or PKG?
AMCR on the Momentum factor, by 19 points. Momentum carries 25% of the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, AMCR or PKG?
PKG is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. PKG on Risk Resilience, by 15 points. The Risk Resilience factor weights 15% of the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is AMCR more profitable than PKG?
PKG leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 20% vs 20.1%; operating margin 8.1% vs 12.7%; ttm roe 9.5% vs 14.9%.
Is AMCR's lead over PKG getting stronger or weaker?
AMCR lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 1 to 8 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-04-24 and 2026-09-05. The lead has changed hands 5 times in that window, most recently on 2026-08-06, when AMCR moved ahead of PKG.
What would change the AMCR vs PKG verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: PKG closes the Value gap — currently 29 points behind, the largest single contributor to AMCR's edge; PKG's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it; AMCR's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 2 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about AMCR and PKG?
AMCR: 2 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. PKG: 1 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on AMCR is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On PKG it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare AMCR and PKG with others
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality (30%), Value (30%), Momentum (25%) and Risk (15%). Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.