ARCC vs NLY Stock Comparison
NLY currently leads ARCC in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 50 vs 46. The clearest difference is value, while ARCC has the stronger risk resilience profile.
What is the main difference between ARCC and NLY?
NLY leads the current stock comparison as Annaly Capital Management, Inc., with the clearest separation coming from value and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Ares Capital Corporation vs Annaly Capital Management, Inc.
NLY leads
NLY leads by 4 AIQ points, primarily on Value, and the lead has widened from 1 points over 30 sessions.
Fragile: 4 of 6 evidence groups support NLY, its lead is widening, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Ares Capital Corporation
Annaly Capital Management, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors NLY over ARCC, 50 versus 46 as of Oct 21, 2026. NLY's advantage is driven primarily by stronger value, while ARCC holds the stronger risk resilience profile. NLY also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor NLY today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 4 points. NLY lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 1 to 4 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Ares Capital Corporation and Annaly Capital Management, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare ARCC and NLY against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Value47 vs 72NLY +25
- Risk Resilience58 vs 36ARCC +22
- Momentum31 vs 34Even
- Quality50 vs 48Even
4 of 6 evidence groups favor NLY. NLY’s edge is concentrated in value; ARCC keeps a meaningful risk resilience edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Momentum +5
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 3 active signals are unchanged.
Largest factor move: Momentum +9
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 5 active signals are unchanged.
NLY's lead was unchanged in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — ARCC and NLY both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
NLY (Annaly Capital Management, Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by value.
ARCC (Ares Capital Corporation): the counter-case, on risk resilience, technicals.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
NLYNLY on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
NLYNLY on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
NLYNLY on the peer-relative Value factor, by 25 points.
Momentum
EvenThe two are level on Momentum.
Lower downside
ARCCARCC on Risk Resilience, by 22 points.
Analyst upside
NLYNLY on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | ARCC | NLY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +3.3% | +25.9% | NLY has more room |
| Target dispersion | 0% | +13.2% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 1 | 2 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Dividend growth
| Dividend metric | ARCC | NLY |
|---|---|---|
| 5Y dividend CAGR | 3.71% | -5.11% |
| 2020 regular DPS | $1.600 | $3.640 |
| 2025 regular DPS | $1.920 | $2.800 |
| Years increased | — | 1 |
| No cut in window | — | No (2) |
| Cohort rank | not ranked | not ranked |
ARCC grew its split-adjusted regular dividend faster over 2020–2025 — 3.71% a year against NLY's -5.11%. They are ranked in different cohorts — business development companies and REITs — so their ranks are not comparable with each other.
Yield and payout ratio shown elsewhere on this page are current values, not part of the study window.
Split-adjusted regular dividends per share, 2020–2025, excluding special dividends. Research as of Sep 19, 2026.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor NLY. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | NLY | 46 vs 50 |
| Fundamentals | NLYon balance | revenue growth 120.1% vs 37.1%; EPS growth 84.6% vs 224.2%; TTM ROE 6.8% vs 18.4%; gross margin 67% vs 99.3%; operating margin 62.9% vs 111.8% — NLY takes 4 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | NLY | Value 47 vs 72 |
| Technicals | ARCC | Price vs 50-day -5.2% vs -14.7%; vs 200-day -3.1% vs -17.4% |
| Risk Resilience | ARCC | Risk Resilience 58 vs 36 |
| Analyst expectations | NLY | Target upside 3.3% vs 25.9% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of ARCC and NLY and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 4 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader's advantage has been widening. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on NLY.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20NLY lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 1 to 4 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- NLY +4
- 46 vs 50
- 7 sessions ago
- NLY +1
- 47 vs 48
- 30 sessions ago
- NLY +1
- 48 vs 49
- 90 sessions ago
- ARCC +4
- 63 vs 59
The lead changed hands 4 times in this window, most recently on Sep 18 when NLY moved ahead of ARCC.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only ARCC
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (1.62%)
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
1 bullish / 3 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only NLY
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (4.90%)
- 52-Week Low Proximity — bearish, risk, long horizon (0.3%)
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
Both carry 1 more signal that do not separate them: Bollinger Band Squeeze.
NLY leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price is down while the AIQ Score moved up 2 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price -0.59%, AIQ +2 points).
Price is down while the AIQ Score moved up 2 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price -1.53%, AIQ +2 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1ARCC closes the Value gap — currently 25 points behind, the largest single contributor to NLY's edge.
- 2ARCC's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it.
- 3NLY's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 3 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
NLY leads on balance| Metric | ARCC | NLY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 120.1% | 37.1% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 84.6% | 224.2% |
| Gross margin | 67% | 99.3% |
| Operating margin | 62.9% | 111.8% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 6.8% | 18.4% |
| Debt to equity | 1.14 | 7.38 |
Performance
ARCC leads 5 of 6 windows| Metric | ARCC | NLY |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -0.3% | 0.7% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -4.4% | -14.7% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -1.9% | -18.4% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -2.4% | -19.1% |
| Year to date | -8.5% | -18.2% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -5.2% | -10.8% |
Technicals
ARCC has the stronger structure| Metric | ARCC | NLY |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 37.4 | 41 |
| ADX (14) | 24.7 | 56.1 |
| Price vs 50-day | -5.2% | -14.7% |
| Price vs 200-day | -3.1% | -17.4% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 16% | 30.5% |
Risk
ARCC is the more resilient| Metric | ARCC | NLY |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.67 | 0.58 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.38 | -0.68 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.57 | -0.9 |
| Max drawdown | -17% | -27.4% |
| Current drawdown | -12% | -25% |
| Annualized volatility | 19.2% | 21.5% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -2.1% | -2% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, ARCC or NLY?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, NLY is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 50 against ARCC's 46. The edge comes from value. ARCC is not without a case — it holds the better risk resilience profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is ARCC or NLY the better buy right now?
NLY carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 4 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 4 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor NLY over ARCC?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. NLY leads Value by 25 points; ARCC leads Risk Resilience by 22 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, ARCC or NLY?
Analyst price targets imply +3.3% upside for ARCC and +25.9% for NLY, so the Street currently favors NLY. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, ARCC or NLY?
NLY is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. NLY on the peer-relative Value factor, by 25 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, ARCC or NLY?
NLY on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, ARCC or NLY?
The two are level on Momentum. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, ARCC or NLY?
ARCC is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. ARCC on Risk Resilience, by 22 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is ARCC more profitable than NLY?
NLY leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 67% vs 99.3%; operating margin 62.9% vs 111.8%; ttm roe 6.8% vs 18.4%.
Is NLY's lead over ARCC getting stronger or weaker?
NLY lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 1 to 4 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has changed hands 4 times in that window, most recently on 2026-09-18, when NLY moved ahead of ARCC.
What would change the ARCC vs NLY verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: ARCC closes the Value gap — currently 25 points behind, the largest single contributor to NLY's edge; ARCC's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it; NLY's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 3 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about ARCC and NLY?
ARCC: 1 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. NLY: 1 bullish / 3 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on ARCC is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On NLY it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare ARCC and NLY with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.