BALL vs SW Stock Comparison
BALL currently leads SW in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 57 vs 38. The clearest difference is momentum.
What is the main difference between BALL and SW?
BALL leads the current stock comparison as Ball Corporation, with the clearest separation coming from momentum and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Ball Corporation vs Smurfit Westrock plc
BALL leads
BALL leads by 19 AIQ points, primarily on Momentum and Value, having only recently taken the lead back from SW. Wall Street currently favors SW on target upside.
Fragile: 3 of 6 evidence groups support BALL, the lead recently changed hands, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Ball Corporation
Smurfit Westrock plc
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors BALL over SW, 57 versus 38 as of Oct 21, 2026. BALL's advantage is driven primarily by stronger momentum and value. BALL also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors SW. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor BALL today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. BALL lead: Reversed — SW led by 2 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; BALL now leads by 19.
Compare Ball Corporation and Smurfit Westrock plc across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare BALL and SW against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum81 vs 25BALL +56
- Value54 vs 44BALL +10
- Quality36 vs 29BALL +7
- Risk Resilience62 vs 64Even
3 of 6 evidence groups favor BALL. BALL’s edge is concentrated in momentum and value.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
No factor moved materially.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 6 active signals are unchanged.
No factor moved materially.
New signals
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
BALL's lead was unchanged in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — BALL and SW both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
BALL (Ball Corporation): the stronger current systematic profile, led by momentum and value.
SW (Smurfit Westrock plc): the counter-case, on fundamentals, analyst expectations.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
BALLBALL on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
SWSW on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
BALLBALL on the peer-relative Value factor, by 10 points.
Momentum
BALLBALL on the Momentum factor, by 56 points.
Lower downside
SWSW carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility.
Analyst upside
SWSW on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors BALL, analyst targets favor SW. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | BALL | SW | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +13.2% | +65% | SW has more room |
| Target dispersion | +20.7% | +175.4% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 4 | 8 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Dividend growth
| Dividend metric | BALL | SW |
|---|---|---|
| 5Y dividend CAGR | 5.92% | -4.53% |
| 2020 regular DPS | $0.600 | $2.173 |
| 2025 regular DPS | $0.800 | $1.723 |
| Years increased | 2 | 2 |
| No cut in window | Yes | No (3) |
| Cohort rank | #213 | not ranked |
BALL grew its split-adjusted regular dividend faster over 2020–2025 — 5.92% a year against SW's -4.53%. BALL never reduced its regular dividend in the window; SW did in 3 years.
Yield and payout ratio shown elsewhere on this page are current values, not part of the study window.
Split-adjusted regular dividends per share, 2020–2025, excluding special dividends. Research as of Sep 19, 2026.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor BALL. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | BALL | 57 vs 38 |
| Fundamentals | SWon balance | revenue growth 10.9% vs 19.9%; EPS growth 6.5% vs 23.1%; TTM ROE 17% vs 2.7%; gross margin 16.4% vs 17.9%; operating margin 11.1% vs 5.4% — SW takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | BALL | Value 54 vs 44 |
| Technicals | BALL | Price vs 50-day 5.6% vs -8%; vs 200-day 6% vs -5.2% |
| Risk Resilience | Even | Risk Resilience 62 vs 64 |
| Analyst expectations | SW | Target upside 13.2% vs 65% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of BALL and SW and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is wide at 19 points. (supports the conclusion holding)
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has swung materially session to session. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on BALL.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20BALL lead: Reversed — SW led by 2 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; BALL now leads by 19.
- Today
- BALL +19
- 57 vs 38
- 7 sessions ago
- BALL +20
- 57 vs 37
- 30 sessions ago
- SW +2
- 43 vs 45
- 90 sessions ago
- BALL +2
- 45 vs 43
The lead changed hands 2 times in this window, most recently on Oct 1 when BALL moved ahead of SW.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
5 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
Only BALL
- Keltner Channel Breakout — bullish, volatility, short horizon
- RSI Overbought — bearish, momentum, short horizon
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
2 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only SW
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- RSI Oversold - Potential Bounce — bullish, momentum, short horizon
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
Both carry 1 more signal that do not separate them: Golden Cross Active.
BALL leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -0.02%, AIQ 0 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +0.66%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1SW closes the Momentum gap — currently 56 points behind, the largest single contributor to BALL's edge.
- 2SW's Bollinger Band Squeeze turns directional — it is neutral today and would confirm a change in trend.
- 3BALL's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 5 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
SW leads on balance| Metric | BALL | SW |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 10.9% | 19.9% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 6.5% | 23.1% |
| Gross margin | 16.4% | 17.9% |
| Operating margin | 11.1% | 5.4% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 17% | 2.7% |
| Debt to equity | 1.26 | 0.79 |
Performance
BALL leads 6 of 6 windows| Metric | BALL | SW |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 7.7% | -0.6% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | 7% | -11.3% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 2.9% | -7.5% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 1.3% | -0.1% |
| Year to date | 21.1% | 6.5% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 33.5% | -0.3% |
Technicals
BALL has the stronger structure| Metric | BALL | SW |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 93.1 | 24.3 |
| ADX (14) | 26.2 | 30.6 |
| Price vs 50-day | 5.6% | -8% |
| Price vs 200-day | 6% | -5.2% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 24% | 19.4% |
Risk
Split| Metric | BALL | SW |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.15 | 1.46 |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.07 | 0.12 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.75 | 0.19 |
| Max drawdown | -22.3% | -31.3% |
| Current drawdown | -5.3% | -20.5% |
| Annualized volatility | 26.1% | 44% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -2.3% | -3.9% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, BALL or SW?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, BALL is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 57 against SW's 38. The edge comes from momentum and value. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is BALL or SW the better buy right now?
BALL carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor BALL over SW?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. BALL leads Momentum by 56 points; BALL leads Value by 10 points; BALL leads Quality by 7 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, BALL or SW?
Analyst price targets imply +13.2% upside for BALL and +65% for SW, so the Street currently favors SW. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors BALL. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, BALL or SW?
BALL is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. BALL on the peer-relative Value factor, by 10 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, BALL or SW?
SW on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, BALL or SW?
BALL on the Momentum factor, by 56 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, BALL or SW?
SW is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. SW carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is BALL more profitable than SW?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 16.4% vs 17.9%; operating margin 11.1% vs 5.4%; ttm roe 17% vs 2.7%. BALL leads on two measures and SW on one measure, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is BALL's lead over SW getting stronger or weaker?
BALL lead: Reversed — SW led by 2 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; BALL now leads by 19. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has changed hands 2 times in that window, most recently on 2026-10-01, when BALL moved ahead of SW.
What would change the BALL vs SW verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: SW closes the Momentum gap — currently 56 points behind, the largest single contributor to BALL's edge; SW's Bollinger Band Squeeze turns directional — it is neutral today and would confirm a change in trend; BALL's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 5 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about BALL and SW?
BALL: 5 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. SW: 2 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on BALL is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On SW it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare BALL and SW with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.