CENX vs VALE Stock Comparison
Compare CENX and VALE across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between CENX and VALE?
CENX leads the current stock comparison as Century Aluminum Company, with the clearest separation coming from quality and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Century Aluminum Company vs Vale S.A.
CENX leads
CENX leads by 4 AIQ points, primarily on Quality and Value, but the lead has narrowed from 11 points over 30 sessions.
Fragile: 4 of 6 evidence groups support CENX, its lead is narrowing, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Century Aluminum Company
Vale S.A.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors CENX over VALE, 60 versus 56 as of Sep 11, 2026. CENX's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality and value, while VALE holds the stronger momentum profile. CENX also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor CENX today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 4 points. CENX lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 11 to 4 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Century Aluminum Company and Vale S.A. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare CENX and VALE against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Quality74 vs 42CENX +32
- Momentum45 vs 75VALE +30
- Value67 vs 57CENX +10
- Risk Resilience40 vs 50VALE +10
4 of 6 evidence groups favor CENX. CENX’s edge is concentrated in quality and value; VALE keeps a meaningful momentum edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-10, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-09.
Largest factor move: Momentum -28
New signals
- EMA Ribbon Compression — neutral, trend, medium horizon
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
Largest factor move: Momentum -4
No new signals fired.
CENX's lead narrowed by 5 AIQ points in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — CENX and VALE both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
CENX (Century Aluminum Company): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality and value.
VALE (Vale S.A.): the counter-case, on momentum, risk resilience, technicals.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
CENXCENX on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
CENXCENX on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
CENXCENX on the peer-relative Value factor, by 10 points.
Momentum
VALEVALE on the Momentum factor, by 30 points.
Lower downside
VALEVALE on Risk Resilience, by 10 points.
Analyst upside
CENXCENX on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | CENX | VALE | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +60.4% | +13.3% | CENX has more room |
| Target dispersion | +24.1% | +26.1% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Hold | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 3 | 6 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor CENX. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | CENX | 60 vs 56 |
| Fundamentals | CENXon balance | revenue growth 15.9% vs 13.3%; EPS growth -26.1% vs -27.3%; TTM ROE 58.6% vs 5.8%; gross margin 19.3% vs 34.2%; operating margin 14.9% vs 26.1% — CENX takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | CENX | Value 67 vs 57 |
| Technicals | VALE | Price vs 50-day -3.5% vs 3.6%; vs 200-day -10.9% vs 0.4% |
| Risk Resilience | VALE | Risk Resilience 40 vs 50 |
| Analyst expectations | CENX | Target upside 60.4% vs 13.3% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of CENX and VALE and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 4 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader's advantage has been narrowing. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Signal direction runs against the verdict: the leader is net-bearish while the laggard is net-bullish. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on CENX.
How the comparison changed
119 daily snapshots · May 4 – Sep 10CENX lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 11 to 4 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- CENX +4
- 60 vs 56
- 7 sessions ago
- CENX +5
- 62 vs 57
- 30 sessions ago
- CENX +11
- 56 vs 45
- 90 sessions ago
- CENX +7
- 53 vs 46
The lead changed hands 2 times in this window, most recently on Aug 28 when CENX moved ahead of VALE.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 2 bearish / 3 neutral, conflicted
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (9.05%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
2 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (3.56%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
CENX leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price and the AIQ Score both moved down over the latest session (price -0.7%, AIQ -6 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved down over the latest session (price -0.33%, AIQ -1 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1VALE closes the Quality gap — currently 32 points behind, the largest single contributor to CENX's edge.
- 2VALE's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3CENX's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once.
- 4The narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 7 points over 30 sessions, and a further 4-point move would eliminate CENX's advantage entirely.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
CENX leads on balance| Metric | CENX | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 15.9% | 13.3% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -26.1% | -27.3% |
| Gross margin | 19.3% | 34.2% |
| Operating margin | 14.9% | 26.1% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 58.6% | 5.8% |
| Debt to equity | 0.34 | 0.58 |
Performance
VALE leads 5 of 6 windows| Metric | CENX | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -6.2% | -2.9% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -7.9% | 6% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -24.9% | 2.3% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -17.3% | -0.4% |
| Year to date | 13.2% | 17.3% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 104.1% | 46.2% |
Technicals
VALE has the stronger structure| Metric | CENX | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 53.9 | 65.3 |
| ADX (14) | 14.1 | 16.3 |
| Price vs 50-day | -3.5% | 3.6% |
| Price vs 200-day | -10.9% | 0.4% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 42.3% | 32.9% |
Risk
VALE is the more resilient| Metric | CENX | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.6 | 1.13 |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.35 | 1.24 |
| Sortino ratio | 2.1 | 1.78 |
| Max drawdown | -39.6% | -23.5% |
| Current drawdown | -35.5% | -14.3% |
| Annualized volatility | 66.2% | 32.9% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -6.8% | -3.6% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, CENX or VALE?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, CENX is the stronger of the two as of Sep 11, 2026, scoring 60 against VALE's 56. The edge comes from quality and value. VALE is not without a case — it holds the better momentum profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is CENX or VALE the better buy right now?
CENX carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 11, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 4 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 4 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor CENX over VALE?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. CENX leads Quality by 32 points; VALE leads Momentum by 30 points; CENX leads Value by 10 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, CENX or VALE?
Analyst price targets imply +60.4% upside for CENX and +13.3% for VALE, so the Street currently favors CENX. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, CENX or VALE?
CENX is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. CENX on the peer-relative Value factor, by 10 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, CENX or VALE?
CENX on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, CENX or VALE?
VALE on the Momentum factor, by 30 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, CENX or VALE?
VALE is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. VALE on Risk Resilience, by 10 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is CENX more profitable than VALE?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 19.3% vs 34.2%; operating margin 14.9% vs 26.1%; ttm roe 58.6% vs 5.8%. CENX leads on one measure and VALE on two measures, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is CENX's lead over VALE getting stronger or weaker?
CENX lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 11 to 4 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 119 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-05-04 and 2026-09-10. The lead has changed hands 2 times in that window, most recently on 2026-08-28, when CENX moved ahead of VALE.
What would change the CENX vs VALE verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: VALE closes the Quality gap — currently 32 points behind, the largest single contributor to CENX's edge; VALE's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; CENX's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once; the narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 7 points over 30 sessions, and a further 4-point move would eliminate CENX's advantage entirely.
What do the current signals say about CENX and VALE?
CENX: 1 bullish / 2 bearish / 3 neutral, conflicted. VALE: 2 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on CENX is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On VALE it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare CENX and VALE with others
Continue your research
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How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.