CF vs DOW Stock Comparison
CF currently leads DOW in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 66 vs 54. The clearest difference is quality, while DOW has the stronger momentum profile.
What is the main difference between CF and DOW?
CF leads the current stock comparison as CF Industries Holdings, Inc., with the clearest separation coming from quality and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. vs Dow Inc.
CF leads
CF leads by 12 AIQ points, primarily on Quality, but the lead has narrowed from 15 points over 30 sessions. Wall Street currently favors DOW on target upside.
Competitive: 1 of 6 evidence groups support CF, its lead is narrowing, and its signal state is cleanly positive.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
Dow Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors CF over DOW, 66 versus 54 as of Oct 21, 2026. CF's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality, while DOW holds the stronger momentum profile. CF also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors DOW. 1 of 6 covered evidence groups favor CF today, and the comparison is rated Competitive on stability: only 1 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. CF lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 15 to 12 points over 30 sessions.
Compare CF Industries Holdings, Inc. and Dow Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare CF and DOW against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Quality80 vs 22CF +58
- Momentum57 vs 73DOW +16
- Risk Resilience59 vs 62Even
- Value64 vs 65Even
1 of 6 evidence groups favor CF. CF’s edge is concentrated in quality; DOW keeps a meaningful momentum edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
No factor moved materially.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 3 active signals are unchanged.
No factor moved materially.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 6 active signals are unchanged.
CF's lead was unchanged in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — CF and DOW both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
CF (CF Industries Holdings, Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality.
DOW (Dow Inc.): the counter-case, on momentum, analyst expectations.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
CFCF on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
DOWDOW on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
EvenThe two are level on Value.
Momentum
DOWDOW on the Momentum factor, by 16 points.
Lower downside
EvenDownside measures are level or not covered.
Analyst upside
DOWDOW on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors CF, analyst targets favor DOW. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | CF | DOW | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +9.6% | +19.7% | DOW has more room |
| Target dispersion | +40.8% | +63.3% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Hold | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 8 | 10 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Dividend growth
| Dividend metric | CF | DOW |
|---|---|---|
| 5Y dividend CAGR | 10.76% | -5.59% |
| 2020 regular DPS | $1.200 | $2.800 |
| 2025 regular DPS | $2.000 | $2.100 |
| Years increased | 3 | 0 |
| No cut in window | Yes | No (1) |
| Cohort rank | #82 | not ranked |
CF grew its split-adjusted regular dividend faster over 2020–2025 — 10.76% a year against DOW's -5.59%. CF never reduced its regular dividend in the window; DOW did in 1 year.
Yield and payout ratio shown elsewhere on this page are current values, not part of the study window.
Split-adjusted regular dividends per share, 2020–2025, excluding special dividends. Research as of Sep 19, 2026.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
1 of 6 covered evidence groups favor CF. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | CF | 66 vs 54 |
| Fundamentals | Even | revenue growth 11.9% vs 23.5%; EPS growth 18.8% vs 235.1%; TTM ROE 40.4% vs -6.6%; gross margin 42.5% vs 9.8% |
| Valuation | Even | Value 64 vs 65 |
| Technicals | Even | Price vs 50-day -5.7% vs 2.6%; vs 200-day 2.7% vs -5.1% |
| Risk Resilience | Even | Risk Resilience 59 vs 62 |
| Analyst expectations | DOW | Target upside 9.6% vs 19.7% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of CF and DOW and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The two are close enough that your objective, not the score, should decide.
- The AIQ gap is wide at 12 points. (supports the conclusion holding)
- Only 1 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader's advantage has been narrowing. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader's signal state is cleanly positive. (supports the conclusion holding)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on CF.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20CF lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 15 to 12 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- CF +12
- 66 vs 54
- 7 sessions ago
- CF +16
- 68 vs 52
- 30 sessions ago
- CF +15
- 57 vs 42
- 90 sessions ago
- CF +13
- 65 vs 52
The lead has not changed hands in this window.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
2 bullish / 0 bearish / 1 neutral
Only CF
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (7.47%)
- ATR Expansion - Breakout Mode — neutral, volatility, short horizon (3.67%)
2 bullish / 3 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only DOW
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (9.25%)
- BB Upper Band Breach — bearish, volatility, short horizon
- Keltner Channel Breakout — bullish, volatility, short horizon
- RSI Overbought — bearish, momentum, short horizon
Both carry 1 more signal that do not separate them: MACD Bullish Crossover.
DOW is conflicted, so the timing case there is weaker than the score alone suggests.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -1.38%, AIQ 0 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -1.01%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1DOW closes the Quality gap — currently 58 points behind, the largest single contributor to CF's edge.
- 2DOW's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3CF's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict.
- 4The narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 3 points over 30 sessions, and a further 12-point move would eliminate CF's advantage entirely.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
Split| Metric | CF | DOW |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 11.9% | 23.5% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 18.8% | 235.1% |
| Gross margin | 42.5% | 9.8% |
| Operating margin | 38.1% | -0.1% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 40.4% | -6.6% |
| Debt to equity | 0.63 | 0.85 |
Performance
Split across windows| Metric | CF | DOW |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 0.6% | 7.6% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -2.2% | 8.8% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -7.4% | -1.8% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -2.8% | -19.9% |
| Year to date | 52.5% | 31.3% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 42.1% | 40.1% |
Technicals
Split| Metric | CF | DOW |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 57.2 | 78.3 |
| ADX (14) | 22.3 | 17.9 |
| Price vs 50-day | -5.7% | 2.6% |
| Price vs 200-day | 2.7% | -5.1% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 23.7% | 23.4% |
Risk
Split| Metric | CF | DOW |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.04 | -0.27 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.93 | 0.91 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.52 | 1.64 |
| Max drawdown | -25.8% | -35.5% |
| Current drawdown | -15.3% | -26.7% |
| Annualized volatility | 42.8% | 43.3% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -3.9% | -3.5% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, CF or DOW?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, CF is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 66 against DOW's 54. The edge comes from quality. DOW is not without a case — it holds the better momentum profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is CF or DOW the better buy right now?
CF carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Competitive — 1 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Competitive rating means the two are close enough that your objective, not the score, should decide.
Why does the AIQ Score favor CF over DOW?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. CF leads Quality by 58 points; DOW leads Momentum by 16 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, CF or DOW?
Analyst price targets imply +9.6% upside for CF and +19.7% for DOW, so the Street currently favors DOW. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors CF. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, CF or DOW?
Neither name separates on the peer-relative Value factor. The two are level on Value. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, CF or DOW?
DOW on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, CF or DOW?
DOW on the Momentum factor, by 16 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, CF or DOW?
The two are close on downside measures. Downside measures are level or not covered. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is CF more profitable than DOW?
CF leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 42.5% vs 9.8%; operating margin 38.1% vs -0.1%; ttm roe 40.4% vs -6.6%.
Is CF's lead over DOW getting stronger or weaker?
CF lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 15 to 12 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has not changed hands in that window.
What would change the CF vs DOW verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: DOW closes the Quality gap — currently 58 points behind, the largest single contributor to CF's edge; DOW's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; CF's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict; the narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 3 points over 30 sessions, and a further 12-point move would eliminate CF's advantage entirely.
What do the current signals say about CF and DOW?
CF: 2 bullish / 0 bearish / 1 neutral. DOW: 2 bullish / 3 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on CF is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On DOW it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare CF and DOW with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.