DHI vs TOL Stock Comparison
TOL currently leads DHI in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 54 vs 53. The clearest difference is risk resilience, while DHI has the stronger momentum profile.
What is the main difference between DHI and TOL?
TOL leads the current stock comparison as Toll Brothers, Inc., with the clearest separation coming from risk resilience and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
D.R. Horton, Inc. vs Toll Brothers, Inc.
TOL leads
TOL leads by 1 AIQ points, primarily on Risk Resilience.
Fragile: 3 of 6 evidence groups support TOL, and its current signal state is conflicted.
D.R. Horton, Inc.
Toll Brothers, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors TOL over DHI, 54 versus 53 as of Oct 22, 2026. TOL's advantage is driven primarily by stronger risk resilience, while DHI holds the stronger momentum profile. TOL also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor TOL today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 1 points. TOL lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 1 points over 30 sessions.
Compare D.R. Horton, Inc. and Toll Brothers, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare DHI and TOL against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum48 vs 44DHI +4
- Risk Resilience64 vs 68TOL +4
- Quality48 vs 50Even
- Value58 vs 60Even
3 of 6 evidence groups favor TOL. TOL’s edge is concentrated in risk resilience; DHI keeps a meaningful momentum edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Momentum +10
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 3 active signals are unchanged.
Largest factor move: Momentum +11
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 3 active signals are unchanged.
TOL's lead was unchanged in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — DHI and TOL both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
TOL (Toll Brothers, Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by risk resilience.
DHI (D.R. Horton, Inc.): the counter-case, on momentum — but at materially higher volatility, 32.4% against 25.3%.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
TOLTOL on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
DHIDHI on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
EvenThe two are level on Value.
Momentum
DHIDHI on the Momentum factor, by 4 points.
Lower downside
TOLTOL on Risk Resilience, by 4 points.
Analyst upside
TOLTOL on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | DHI | TOL | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +13% | +28.2% | TOL has more room |
| Target dispersion | +34.4% | +42.2% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 6 | 8 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Dividend growth
| Dividend metric | DHI | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| 5Y dividend CAGR | 17.88% | 17.37% |
| 2020 regular DPS | $0.725 | $0.440 |
| 2025 regular DPS | $1.650 | $0.980 |
| Years increased | 5 | 5 |
| No cut in window | Yes | Yes |
| Cohort rank | #19 | #22 |
DHI grew its split-adjusted regular dividend faster over 2020–2025 — 17.88% a year against TOL's 17.37%. Neither company reduced its regular dividend in any year of the window.
Yield and payout ratio shown elsewhere on this page are current values, not part of the study window.
Split-adjusted regular dividends per share, 2020–2025, excluding special dividends. Research as of Sep 19, 2026.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor TOL. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | Even | 53 vs 54 |
| Fundamentals | TOLon balance | revenue growth 22.1% vs 5%; EPS growth 41.8% vs 8.8%; TTM ROE 12.8% vs 14.2%; gross margin 22.6% vs 24.2%; operating margin 11.6% vs 13.8% — TOL takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | Even | Value 58 vs 60 |
| Technicals | Even | Price vs 50-day -1.7% vs -2.8%; vs 200-day -5.2% vs -6% |
| Risk Resilience | TOL | Risk Resilience 64 vs 68 |
| Analyst expectations | TOL | Target upside 13% vs 28.2% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of DHI and TOL and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 1 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on TOL.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20TOL lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 1 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- TOL +1
- 53 vs 54
- 7 sessions ago
- Level
- 52 vs 52
- 30 sessions ago
- TOL +2
- 53 vs 55
- 90 sessions ago
- TOL +2
- 51 vs 53
The lead changed hands once in this window, most recently on Aug 20 when TOL moved ahead of DHI.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
DHI and TOL carry the same 3 signals, so the signals do not separate them: Death Cross Active, Downtrend Structure Active, MACD Bullish Crossover.
TOL leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price is down while the AIQ Score moved up 2 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price -0.85%, AIQ +2 points).
Price is down while the AIQ Score moved up 2 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price -0.33%, AIQ +2 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1DHI closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 4 points behind, the largest single contributor to TOL's edge.
- 2DHI's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3TOL's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
TOL leads on balance| Metric | DHI | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 22.1% | 5% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 41.8% | 8.8% |
| Gross margin | 22.6% | 24.2% |
| Operating margin | 11.6% | 13.8% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 12.8% | 14.2% |
| Debt to equity | 0.3 | 0.32 |
Performance
TOL leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | DHI | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 3.5% | 2.1% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -2.7% | -1.5% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -1.6% | -9% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -13.6% | -8.6% |
| Year to date | -2.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -8.3% | 0.9% |
Technicals
Split| Metric | DHI | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 55.3 | 51.4 |
| ADX (14) | 11.2 | 10.7 |
| Price vs 50-day | -1.7% | -2.8% |
| Price vs 200-day | -5.2% | -6% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 32.4% | 25.3% |
Risk
TOL is the more resilient| Metric | DHI | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.92 | 1.3 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.2 | 0.05 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.39 | 0.1 |
| Max drawdown | -21% | -25.3% |
| Current drawdown | -16.5% | -18.4% |
| Annualized volatility | 35.4% | 34.3% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -3.3% | -3.1% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, DHI or TOL?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, TOL is the stronger of the two as of Oct 22, 2026, scoring 54 against DHI's 53. The edge comes from risk resilience. DHI is not without a case — it holds the better momentum profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is DHI or TOL the better buy right now?
TOL carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 22, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 1 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor TOL over DHI?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. DHI leads Momentum by 4 points; TOL leads Risk Resilience by 4 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, DHI or TOL?
Analyst price targets imply +13% upside for DHI and +28.2% for TOL, so the Street currently favors TOL. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, DHI or TOL?
Neither name separates on the peer-relative Value factor. The two are level on Value. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, DHI or TOL?
DHI on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, DHI or TOL?
DHI on the Momentum factor, by 4 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, DHI or TOL?
TOL is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. TOL on Risk Resilience, by 4 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is DHI more profitable than TOL?
TOL leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 22.6% vs 24.2%; operating margin 11.6% vs 13.8%; ttm roe 12.8% vs 14.2%.
Is TOL's lead over DHI getting stronger or weaker?
TOL lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 1 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has changed hands once in that window, most recently on 2026-08-20, when TOL moved ahead of DHI.
What would change the DHI vs TOL verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: DHI closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 4 points behind, the largest single contributor to TOL's edge; DHI's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; TOL's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about DHI and TOL?
DHI: 1 bullish / 2 bearish, conflicted. TOL: 1 bullish / 2 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on DHI is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On TOL it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare DHI and TOL with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.