Stock Analysis
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Stock Analysis
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) stock analysis covering valuation, fundamentals, technical indicators, risk, AIQ Momentum, analyst catalysts, dividends, and the current AIQ Score.
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) currently has an AIQ Score of 54/100, indicating a neutral setup. Risk is the strongest factor at 69/100. Momentum is the weakest current factor at 41/100. Technical, fundamental, catalyst, dividend, and risk evidence should be read together at the latest market-close snapshot.
TOL at a Glance
Crawlable current metrics from the latest market-close stock snapshot.
| Metric | Current |
|---|---|
| Price | $135.05 |
| AIQ Score | 54/100 |
| Overall View | Neutral |
| Technical Analysis Consensus | Neutral |
| Market Cap | $13.11B |
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | 11.19 |
| Forward P/E | — |
| EPS (quarter ended 2026-07-31) | $2.98 |
| Revenue (quarter ended 2026-07-31) | $2.66B |
| Dividend Yield (TTM) | 0.73% |
| Beta | 1.34 |
| Volume | 1.13M |
| 52-week range | $123.15-$168.36 |
| RSI 14 | 47.46 |
| 50-Day SMA | $138.59 |
| 200-Day SMA | $144.09 |
| Analyst Price Target | $173.18 |
| Next Earnings | Dec 14, 2026 |
TOLToll Brothers, Inc.
Consumer Cyclical / Residential Construction
Low Priority
Above Peers
Latest quote
- Momentum41
- Value60
- Quality50
- Risk resilience69
- Sentiment62
TOL Stock Analysis Summary
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) currently has an AIQ Score of 54/100, indicating a neutral setup. Risk resilience is the strongest factor at 69/100. Momentum is the weakest current factor at 41/100. Technical, fundamental, catalyst, dividend, and risk evidence should be read together at the latest market-close snapshot.
In a neutral regime, TOL has AIQ Score of 54/100 with Risk resilience base of 69/100 and fading Momentum at 41/100. Wait for component alignment before adding exposure.
Risk resilience (69/100) leads while Momentum (41/100) lags. This cross-factor spread creates entry timing uncertainty.
Consumer Cyclical · -0.33% stock move · TOL classified in Residential Construction.
Current Evidence
AlgovestIQ Evidence Summary
Current consensus, supporting evidence, recent changes, and what would strengthen or weaken the view.
Is TOL Bullish or Bearish Right Now?
TOL currently has a neutral overall setup. Risk Resilience is the strongest factor at 69/100, while Momentum is weakest at 41/100. The current evidence suggests a mixed rather than strongly bullish or bearish setup.
- - Risk Resilience is supportive at 69/100.
- - Analyst target implies +28.23% upside from the latest quote.
- - Momentum is weak at 41/100.
- - Price is -6.28% below its 200-day SMA.
Current Consensus
TOL's Technical Analysis Consensus is currently Neutral, with 19 buy, 7 neutral, and 19 sell votes. TOL's 14-day RSI is 47.46, which places the stock in a neutral momentum range. TOL's beta is 1.34, indicating greater market sensitivity than the broad market.
What Changed in TOL?
The largest recent change in TOL is Momentum moving up by 11.0 points over the available 7-day comparison window. Risk Resilience remains the strongest visible factor.
What Would Change the TOL Outlook?
The current neutral outlook could improve if AIQ moves above 70, momentum recovers, earnings revisions strengthen, and price confirms a stronger trend above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. It would weaken if AIQ falls below 40, price loses long-term moving-average support, analyst expectations deteriorate, or risk evidence worsens.
AIQ > 70, RSI above 55, price above SMA-50/SMA-200, and positive catalyst or estimate-revision evidence.
AIQ below 40, RSI below 45, loss of SMA-200, negative revisions, or rising volatility and drawdown risk.
TOL Decision Framework
Public evidence layers, setup checks, and risk context for Toll Brothers, Inc..
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Stock Analysis
Toll Brothers, Inc. has an AIQ Score of 54/100 in a Neutral regime. Risk is strongest at 69/100. Beta is 1.3, above market sensitivity. Review the supporting stock factors together before drawing a conclusion from any single score.
| Evidence Layer | Public Evidence |
|---|---|
| Regime Context | TOL is in a Neutral AIQ regime with score 54/100. |
| Signal Conflict | The primary conflict is that risk leads at 69/100 while momentum lags at 41/100. |
| Factor Evidence | Momentum 41/100 · Value 60/100 · Quality 50/100 · Risk 69/100 · Sentiment 62/100 |
| Persistence | Current snapshot evidence is shown; historical persistence remains in AIQ Pro. |
Current Setup Checklist
Risk is the strongest factor at 69/100.
Momentum is 41/100 and RSI (14) is 47.5.
TOL is in a Neutral regime at 54/100.
Risk factor is 69/100 with beta 1.3 and annual volatility 34.28%.
Current conflict: risk leads at 69/100 while momentum lags at 41/100.
TOL Research Cluster
Ticker-specific paths for valuation, technical analysis, catalysts, dividends, financials, risk, and news.
TOL Fundamentals
TOL valuation, profitability, growth, margins, balance-sheet strength, and free cash flow.
TOL Technical Analysis
TOL technical setup based on RSI, MACD, moving averages, AIQ Momentum, volume, trend, volatility, and pivots.
TOL Stock Catalysts
Track TOL earnings, analyst ratings, price targets, estimate revisions, stock news, and upcoming events.
TOL Dividend Analysis
TOL dividend yield, annual dividend, payout ratio, payment history, and income reliability context.
TOL Financial Data
TOL revenue, earnings, income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, valuation ratios, and stock metrics.
TOL Risk Analysis
TOL volatility, beta, drawdown, Sharpe ratio, VaR, and downside resilience.
TOL Stock News
TOL stock news, market tone, recent headlines, and catalyst context.
TOL vs Homebuilders Peers
Current peer cohort: TOL · CCS · DHI · FIG · GRBK. Compare AIQ, factor scores, Sharpe ratio and 1-year volatility in one indexable view.
| Peer | AIQ | Value | Momentum | Risk | Sharpe | 1Y Volatility | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL Current stock | 54/100 | 60/100 | 41/100 | 69/100 | 0.04 | 34.28% | Current |
| CCS Century Communities | 45/100 | 66/100 | 27/100 | 59/100 | -0.12 | 41.96% | TOL vs CCS |
| DHI D.R. Horton | 53/100 | 58/100 | 46/100 | 64/100 | -0.22 | 35.36% | TOL vs DHI |
| FIG Forestar Group | 47/100 | 26/100 | 50/100 | 57/100 | -0.87 | 74.73% | TOL vs FIG |
| GRBK Green Brick Partners | 49/100 | 57/100 | 26/100 | 58/100 | -0.28 | 32.94% | TOL vs GRBK |
Peer cohort is resolved dynamically from the AlgovestIQ universe taxonomy and Compare relationship graph. Data as of Oct 21, 2026.
About the AIQ Score
Methodology for the current stock evidence.
The AlgovestIQ AIQ Score combines multiple dimensions of stock evidence, including momentum, valuation exposure, quality, risk resilience, sentiment context, and timing signals. It is a descriptive research score, not a guarantee of future performance or a personalized recommendation.
View AIQ methodologyFactor Diagnostics
A compact bridge from the AIQ score to the evidence tabs.
Open the return calculator with stock context while purchase price, shares, dates and fees remain user inputs.
AIQ Component Profile
Compare the five component scores on one consistent 0–100 scale.
Review earnings timing, revisions, news pressure, and prior event reactions in one place.
Open catalysts3 recent quarterly periods are available for review.
Checked Oct 22, 2026
Explore factor drivers, conflicts, persistence, and scenario sensitivity in the advanced workspace.
Fundamentals Verdict
Current snapshot fields are separate from reported-quarter statement tables.
Latest period Jul 31, 2026.
Market Confirmation
Technicals are summarized first, with the indicator library behind it.
Risk Alignment
Higher resilience is stronger; exposure metrics stay separate.
Continue Researching TOL
Open the detailed evidence pages and workflows behind the stock overview read.
Premium Feature
Full AIQ Analysis
AIQ Intelligence
AIQ Pro for TOL
Scenario Analysis
AIQ Scenario Builder
Portfolio Implication
Related Links
TOL Stock FAQ
What is TOL stock price today?
Toll Brothers, Inc.'s current stock price is $135.05. Use the live quote with AIQ Score, news, and risk context rather than treating price alone as a decision signal.
Is TOL bullish or bearish right now?
TOL's bullish or bearish read depends on the current AIQ Score, factor alignment, technical analysis consensus, valuation, risk, and catalyst evidence. A mixed setup should be treated differently from a broad confirmation across those signals.
What is TOL's market cap?
TOL's market cap is $13.11B based on the latest completed market-close snapshot from Oct 21, 2026. Use it with P/E ratio, revenue, and growth metrics to frame company size, valuation, and peer comparisons.
What is TOL's current P/E ratio?
TOL's current P/E ratio is 11.19 based on the latest completed market-close snapshot from Oct 21, 2026. Read it with revenue growth, margins, EPS, cash flow, and peer valuation rather than using P/E alone.
What is TOL's RSI?
TOL's 14-day RSI is 47.46 based on the latest completed market-close snapshot from Oct 21, 2026. RSI should be interpreted with MACD, moving averages, volume, volatility, and price trend.
Is TOL above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages?
TOL is -2.56% from its 50-day SMA and -6.28% from its 200-day SMA based on the latest completed market-close snapshot from Oct 21, 2026. Moving-average position should be read with momentum and broader AIQ evidence.
When is TOL's next earnings date?
TOL's next earnings date is currently listed as Dec 14, 2026. Earnings can reset revenue, EPS, price target, analyst rating, and catalyst expectations.
Does TOL pay a dividend?
TOL's dividend yield is 0.73% based on the latest completed market-close snapshot from Oct 21, 2026. Dividend yield should be read with payout ratio, free cash flow, growth, and balance-sheet strength.