DUOL vs ESTC Stock Comparison
ESTC currently leads DUOL in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 69 vs 64. The clearest difference is momentum, while DUOL has the stronger value profile.
What is the main difference between DUOL and ESTC?
ESTC leads the current stock comparison as Elastic N.V., with the clearest separation coming from momentum and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Duolingo, Inc. vs Elastic N.V.
ESTC leads
ESTC leads by 5 AIQ points, primarily on Momentum and Quality, and the lead has widened from 0 points over 30 sessions. Wall Street currently favors DUOL on target upside.
Fragile: 3 of 6 evidence groups support ESTC, its lead is widening, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Duolingo, Inc.
Elastic N.V.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors ESTC over DUOL, 69 versus 64 as of Oct 21, 2026. ESTC's advantage is driven primarily by stronger momentum and quality, while DUOL holds the stronger value profile. ESTC also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors DUOL. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor ESTC today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 5 points. ESTC lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 0 to 5 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Duolingo, Inc. and Elastic N.V. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price return from daily closes; distributions are not included.
Price return comparison
Growth of $10,000, price only
Split-adjusted closes only. Distributions are excluded, which understates the return of any fund or stock that pays them.
Compare DUOL and ESTC against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum43 vs 66ESTC +23
- Value60 vs 49DUOL +11
- Quality89 vs 95ESTC +6
- Risk Resilience58 vs 59Even
3 of 6 evidence groups favor ESTC. ESTC’s edge is concentrated in momentum and quality; DUOL keeps a meaningful value edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Momentum -3
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 3 active signals are unchanged.
Largest factor move: Momentum -2, not enough on its own to move the overall score.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 5 active signals are unchanged.
ESTC's lead widened by 1 AIQ point in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — DUOL and ESTC both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
ESTC (Elastic N.V.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by momentum and quality.
DUOL (Duolingo, Inc.): the counter-case, on value, valuation, analyst expectations — but at materially higher volatility, 52.8% against 42.8%.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
ESTCESTC on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
DUOLDUOL on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
DUOLDUOL on the peer-relative Value factor, by 11 points.
Momentum
ESTCESTC on the Momentum factor, by 23 points.
Lower downside
ESTCESTC carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility.
Analyst upside
DUOLDUOL on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors ESTC, analyst targets favor DUOL. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | DUOL | ESTC | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | -8% | -11.3% | DUOL has more room |
| Target dispersion | +102.9% | +74.2% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 8 | 9 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor ESTC. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | ESTC | 64 vs 69 |
| Fundamentals | ESTCon balance | revenue growth 2.2% vs 6.1%; EPS growth -23.7% vs -103.8%; TTM ROE 30.1% vs 35.3%; gross margin 72.3% vs 75.5%; operating margin 14.2% vs -1.5% — ESTC takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | DUOL | Value 60 vs 49 |
| Technicals | ESTC | Price vs 50-day -5.5% vs 10.7%; vs 200-day 11.5% vs 44.5% |
| Risk Resilience | Even | Risk Resilience 58 vs 59 |
| Analyst expectations | DUOL | Target upside -8% vs -11.3% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of DUOL and ESTC and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 5 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader's advantage has been widening. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Analyst targets on the leader are widely dispersed. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on ESTC.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20ESTC lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 0 to 5 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- ESTC +5
- 64 vs 69
- 7 sessions ago
- ESTC +2
- 70 vs 72
- 30 sessions ago
- Level
- 68 vs 68
- 90 sessions ago
- ESTC +12
- 61 vs 73
The lead changed hands 6 times in this window, most recently on Sep 28 when ESTC moved ahead of DUOL.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
No signal that the other name lacks.
3 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only ESTC
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
Both carry 3 more signals that do not separate them: Golden Cross Active, ATR Expansion - Breakout Mode, MACD Bearish Crossover.
ESTC leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price and the AIQ Score both moved down over the latest session (price -1.62%, AIQ -1 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +3.33%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1DUOL closes the Momentum gap — currently 23 points behind, the largest single contributor to ESTC's edge.
- 2DUOL's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it.
- 3ESTC's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 3 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
ESTC leads on balance| Metric | DUOL | ESTC |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 2.2% | 6.1% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -23.7% | -103.8% |
| Gross margin | 72.3% | 75.5% |
| Operating margin | 14.2% | -1.5% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 30.1% | 35.3% |
| Debt to equity | 0.06 | 0.02 |
Performance
ESTC leads 6 of 6 windows| Metric | DUOL | ESTC |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -0.4% | 1.4% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -5.5% | 7.2% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 16.8% | 63% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 36% | 97.6% |
| Year to date | -20.5% | 26.8% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -57.8% | 18.7% |
Technicals
ESTC has the stronger structure| Metric | DUOL | ESTC |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 46.9 | 56.4 |
| ADX (14) | 10.6 | 33.2 |
| Price vs 50-day | -5.5% | 10.7% |
| Price vs 200-day | 11.5% | 44.5% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 52.8% | 42.8% |
Risk
Split| Metric | DUOL | ESTC |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.64 | 1.15 |
| Sharpe ratio | -1.07 | 0.51 |
| Sortino ratio | -1.35 | 0.71 |
| Max drawdown | -72.2% | -54.2% |
| Current drawdown | -56.9% | -4.3% |
| Annualized volatility | 63.3% | 57.6% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -6.2% | -5.4% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, DUOL or ESTC?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, ESTC is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 69 against DUOL's 64. The edge comes from momentum and quality. DUOL is not without a case — it holds the better value profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is DUOL or ESTC the better buy right now?
ESTC carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 5 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor ESTC over DUOL?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. ESTC leads Momentum by 23 points; DUOL leads Value by 11 points; ESTC leads Quality by 6 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, DUOL or ESTC?
Analyst price targets imply -8% upside for DUOL and -11.3% for ESTC, so the Street currently favors DUOL. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors ESTC. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, DUOL or ESTC?
DUOL is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. DUOL on the peer-relative Value factor, by 11 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, DUOL or ESTC?
DUOL on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, DUOL or ESTC?
ESTC on the Momentum factor, by 23 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, DUOL or ESTC?
ESTC is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. ESTC carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is DUOL more profitable than ESTC?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 72.3% vs 75.5%; operating margin 14.2% vs -1.5%; ttm roe 30.1% vs 35.3%. DUOL leads on one measure and ESTC on two measures, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is ESTC's lead over DUOL getting stronger or weaker?
ESTC lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 0 to 5 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has changed hands 6 times in that window, most recently on 2026-09-28, when ESTC moved ahead of DUOL.
What would change the DUOL vs ESTC verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: DUOL closes the Momentum gap — currently 23 points behind, the largest single contributor to ESTC's edge; DUOL's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it; ESTC's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 3 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about DUOL and ESTC?
DUOL: 1 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. ESTC: 3 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on DUOL is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On ESTC it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare DUOL and ESTC with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.