HIG vs PGR Stock Comparison
Compare HIG and PGR across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between HIG and PGR?
HIG leads the current stock comparison as The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc., with the clearest separation coming from risk resilience and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. vs The Progressive Corporation
HIG leads
HIG leads by 6 AIQ points, primarily on Risk Resilience and Value, having only recently taken the lead back from PGR.
Fragile: 4 of 6 evidence groups support HIG, the lead recently changed hands, and its current signal state is conflicted.
The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.
The Progressive Corporation
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors HIG over PGR, 63 versus 57 as of Sep 11, 2026. HIG's advantage is driven primarily by stronger risk resilience and value, while PGR holds the stronger quality profile. HIG also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor HIG today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. HIG lead: Reversed — PGR led by 1 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; HIG now leads by 6.
Compare The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. and The Progressive Corporation across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare HIG and PGR against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Risk Resilience74 vs 46HIG +28
- Value65 vs 59HIG +6
- Momentum47 vs 41HIG +6
- Quality69 vs 74PGR +5
4 of 6 evidence groups favor HIG. HIG’s edge is concentrated in risk resilience and value; PGR keeps a meaningful quality edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-10, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-09.
Largest factor move: Momentum +1
No new signals fired.
Largest factor move: Momentum -4
No new signals fired.
HIG's lead widened by 1 AIQ points in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — HIG and PGR both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
HIG (The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by risk resilience and value.
PGR (The Progressive Corporation): the counter-case, on quality, technicals — but at materially higher volatility, 27.5% against 18.1%.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
HIGHIG on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
HIGHIG on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
HIGHIG on the peer-relative Value factor, by 6 points.
Momentum
HIGHIG on the Momentum factor, by 6 points.
Lower downside
HIGHIG on Risk Resilience, by 28 points.
Analyst upside
HIGHIG on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | HIG | PGR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +11% | +2.4% | HIG has more room |
| Target dispersion | +5.3% | +22% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Hold | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 3 | 13 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor HIG. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | HIG | 63 vs 57 |
| Fundamentals | Even | EPS growth 51.3% vs 18.1%; TTM ROE 23% vs 35.4%; gross margin 43.9% vs 26.9%; operating margin 15.2% vs 16.2% |
| Valuation | HIG | Value 65 vs 59 |
| Technicals | PGR | Price vs 50-day -2.1% vs 0.2%; vs 200-day 0.4% vs 2.7% |
| Risk Resilience | HIG | Risk Resilience 74 vs 46 |
| Analyst expectations | HIG | Target upside 11% vs 2.4% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of HIG and PGR and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 6 points.
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on HIG.
How the comparison changed
119 daily snapshots · May 4 – Sep 10HIG lead: Reversed — PGR led by 1 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; HIG now leads by 6.
- Today
- HIG +6
- 63 vs 57
- 7 sessions ago
- PGR +3
- 64 vs 67
- 30 sessions ago
- PGR +1
- 63 vs 64
- 90 sessions ago
- HIG +3
- 72 vs 69
The lead changed hands 8 times in this window, most recently on Sep 9 when HIG moved ahead of PGR.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (2.20%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
2 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (3.19%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
HIG leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -0.32%, AIQ 0 points).
Price is up while the AIQ Score moved down 1 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price +0.66%, AIQ -1 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1PGR closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 28 points behind, the largest single contributor to HIG's edge.
- 2PGR's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it.
- 3HIG's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
Split| Metric | HIG | PGR |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 0.5% | 6.5% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 51.3% | 18.1% |
| Gross margin | 43.9% | 26.9% |
| Operating margin | 15.2% | 16.2% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 23% | 35.4% |
| Debt to equity | 0.22 | 0.24 |
Performance
Split across windows| Metric | HIG | PGR |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -0.3% | -2.3% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -0.5% | 4.3% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 5.8% | 5.9% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 1.4% | 7.4% |
| Year to date | -0.7% | -5.1% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 4.7% | -12.1% |
Technicals
PGR has the stronger structure| Metric | HIG | PGR |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 49.2 | 43.2 |
| ADX (14) | 13 | 13.2 |
| Price vs 50-day | -2.1% | 0.2% |
| Price vs 200-day | 0.4% | 2.7% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 18.1% | 27.5% |
Risk
HIG is the more resilient| Metric | HIG | PGR |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.09 | -0.53 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.13 | -0.44 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.2 | -0.56 |
| Max drawdown | -12.3% | -23.5% |
| Current drawdown | -6.1% | -13.1% |
| Annualized volatility | 19.4% | 27.3% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -1.9% | -2.5% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, HIG or PGR?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, HIG is the stronger of the two as of Sep 11, 2026, scoring 63 against PGR's 57. The edge comes from risk resilience and value. PGR is not without a case — it holds the better quality profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is HIG or PGR the better buy right now?
HIG carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 11, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 4 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor HIG over PGR?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. HIG leads Risk Resilience by 28 points; HIG leads Value by 6 points; HIG leads Momentum by 6 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, HIG or PGR?
Analyst price targets imply +11% upside for HIG and +2.4% for PGR, so the Street currently favors HIG. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, HIG or PGR?
HIG is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. HIG on the peer-relative Value factor, by 6 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, HIG or PGR?
HIG on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, HIG or PGR?
HIG on the Momentum factor, by 6 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, HIG or PGR?
HIG is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. HIG on Risk Resilience, by 28 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is HIG more profitable than PGR?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 43.9% vs 26.9%; operating margin 15.2% vs 16.2%; ttm roe 23% vs 35.4%. HIG leads on one measure and PGR on two measures, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is HIG's lead over PGR getting stronger or weaker?
HIG lead: Reversed — PGR led by 1 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; HIG now leads by 6. This is measured from 119 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-05-04 and 2026-09-10. The lead has changed hands 8 times in that window, most recently on 2026-09-09, when HIG moved ahead of PGR.
What would change the HIG vs PGR verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: PGR closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 28 points behind, the largest single contributor to HIG's edge; PGR's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it; HIG's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about HIG and PGR?
HIG: 1 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. PGR: 2 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on HIG is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On PGR it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare HIG and PGR with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.