HPQ vs SMCI Stock Comparison
HPQ currently leads SMCI in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 59 vs 51. The clearest difference is momentum, while SMCI has the stronger quality profile.
What is the main difference between HPQ and SMCI?
HPQ leads the current stock comparison as HP Inc., with the clearest separation coming from momentum and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
HP Inc. vs Super Micro Computer, Inc.
HPQ leads
HPQ leads by 8 AIQ points, primarily on Momentum and Risk Resilience, having only recently taken the lead back from SMCI. Wall Street currently favors SMCI on target upside.
Fragile: 3 of 6 evidence groups support HPQ, the lead recently changed hands, and its current signal state is conflicted.
HP Inc.
Super Micro Computer, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors HPQ over SMCI, 59 versus 51 as of Oct 24, 2026. HPQ's advantage is driven primarily by stronger momentum and risk resilience, while SMCI holds the stronger quality profile. HPQ also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors SMCI. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor HPQ today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. HPQ lead: Reversed — SMCI led by 10 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; HPQ now leads by 8.
Compare HP Inc. and Super Micro Computer, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare HPQ and SMCI against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum72 vs 29HPQ +43
- Quality39 vs 53SMCI +14
- Risk Resilience44 vs 36HPQ +8
- Value74 vs 74Even
3 of 6 evidence groups favor HPQ. HPQ’s edge is concentrated in momentum and risk resilience; SMCI keeps a meaningful quality edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-23, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-22.
Largest factor move: Momentum +3
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 7 active signals are unchanged.
Largest factor move: Momentum +1
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 5 active signals are unchanged.
HPQ's lead was unchanged in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — HPQ and SMCI both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
HPQ (HP Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by momentum and risk resilience.
SMCI (Super Micro Computer, Inc.): the counter-case, on quality, fundamentals, analyst expectations — but at materially higher volatility, 70.1% against 45.4%.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
HPQHPQ on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
SMCISMCI on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
EvenThe two are level on Value.
Momentum
HPQHPQ on the Momentum factor, by 43 points.
Lower downside
HPQHPQ on Risk Resilience, by 8 points.
Analyst upside
SMCISMCI on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors HPQ, analyst targets favor SMCI. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | HPQ | SMCI | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | -28.1% | +23.8% | SMCI has more room |
| Target dispersion | +66.1% | +44.1% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Hold | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 8 | 9 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor HPQ. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | HPQ | 59 vs 51 |
| Fundamentals | SMCIon balance | revenue growth 8.8% vs 8.6%; EPS growth 46.9% vs 133.3%; TTM ROE -7.3% vs 25.1%; gross margin 19.8% vs 10.8%; operating margin 5.6% vs 7.1% — SMCI takes 3 of 4 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | Even | Value 74 vs 74 |
| Technicals | HPQ | Price vs 50-day 6.9% vs -14.6%; vs 200-day 38.7% vs 1.2% |
| Risk Resilience | HPQ | Risk Resilience 44 vs 36 |
| Analyst expectations | SMCI | Target upside -28.1% vs 23.8% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of HPQ and SMCI and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 8 points.
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has swung materially session to session. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Analyst targets on the leader are widely dispersed. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on HPQ.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 24 – Oct 23HPQ lead: Reversed — SMCI led by 10 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; HPQ now leads by 8.
- Today
- HPQ +8
- 59 vs 51
- 7 sessions ago
- HPQ +2
- 52 vs 50
- 30 sessions ago
- SMCI +10
- 53 vs 63
- 90 sessions ago
- SMCI +4
- 58 vs 62
The lead changed hands 4 times in this window, most recently on Sep 16 when SMCI moved ahead of HPQ.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
4 bullish / 1 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted
Only HPQ
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- BB Upper Band Breach — bearish, volatility, short horizon
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
2 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only SMCI
- Keltner Channel Breakdown — bearish, volatility, short horizon
- RSI Oversold - Potential Bounce — bullish, momentum, short horizon
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
Both carry 2 more signals that do not separate them: Golden Cross Active, ATR Expansion - Breakout Mode.
HPQ leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price is down while the AIQ Score moved up 1 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price -0.36%, AIQ +1 points).
Price is down while the AIQ Score moved up 1 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price -2.31%, AIQ +1 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1SMCI closes the Momentum gap — currently 43 points behind, the largest single contributor to HPQ's edge.
- 2SMCI's Keltner Channel Breakdown resolves — a bearish volatility rule currently active against it.
- 3HPQ's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 4 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
SMCI leads on balance| Metric | HPQ | SMCI |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 8.8% | 8.6% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 46.9% | 133.3% |
| Gross margin | 19.8% | 10.8% |
| Operating margin | 5.6% | 7.1% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | -7.3% | 25.1% |
| Debt to equity | -112.38 | 0.46 |
Performance
HPQ leads 6 of 6 windows| Metric | HPQ | SMCI |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 12.1% | 4.1% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | 7.5% | -23.9% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 26.7% | 10.5% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 70% | 13.3% |
| Year to date | 51% | 12.5% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 19.5% | -39.9% |
Technicals
HPQ has the stronger structure| Metric | HPQ | SMCI |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 61.3 | 26.3 |
| ADX (14) | 15.5 | 25.1 |
| Price vs 50-day | 6.9% | -14.6% |
| Price vs 200-day | 38.7% | 1.2% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 45.4% | 70.1% |
Risk
HPQ is the more resilient| Metric | HPQ | SMCI |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.57 | 3.91 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.57 | -0.06 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.09 | -0.09 |
| Max drawdown | -35.2% | -61% |
| Current drawdown | -5.2% | -37.5% |
| Annualized volatility | 46% | 93.3% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -4% | -7.9% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, HPQ or SMCI?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, HPQ is the stronger of the two as of Oct 24, 2026, scoring 59 against SMCI's 51. The edge comes from momentum and risk resilience. SMCI is not without a case — it holds the better quality profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is HPQ or SMCI the better buy right now?
HPQ carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 24, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor HPQ over SMCI?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. HPQ leads Momentum by 43 points; SMCI leads Quality by 14 points; HPQ leads Risk Resilience by 8 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, HPQ or SMCI?
Analyst price targets imply -28.1% upside for HPQ and +23.8% for SMCI, so the Street currently favors SMCI. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors HPQ. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, HPQ or SMCI?
Neither name separates on the peer-relative Value factor. The two are level on Value. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, HPQ or SMCI?
SMCI on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, HPQ or SMCI?
HPQ on the Momentum factor, by 43 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, HPQ or SMCI?
HPQ is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. HPQ on Risk Resilience, by 8 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is HPQ more profitable than SMCI?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 19.8% vs 10.8%; operating margin 5.6% vs 7.1%; ttm roe -7.3% vs 25.1%. HPQ leads on one measure and SMCI on two measures, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is HPQ's lead over SMCI getting stronger or weaker?
HPQ lead: Reversed — SMCI led by 10 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; HPQ now leads by 8. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-24 and 2026-10-23. The lead has changed hands 4 times in that window, most recently on 2026-09-16, when SMCI moved ahead of HPQ.
What would change the HPQ vs SMCI verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: SMCI closes the Momentum gap — currently 43 points behind, the largest single contributor to HPQ's edge; SMCI's Keltner Channel Breakdown resolves — a bearish volatility rule currently active against it; HPQ's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 4 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about HPQ and SMCI?
HPQ: 4 bullish / 1 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted. SMCI: 2 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on HPQ is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On SMCI it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare HPQ and SMCI with others
Continue your research
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How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.