HTGC vs OBDC Stock Comparison
HTGC currently leads OBDC in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 51 vs 45. The clearest difference is momentum, while OBDC has the stronger value profile.
What is the main difference between HTGC and OBDC?
HTGC leads the current stock comparison as Hercules Capital, Inc., with the clearest separation coming from momentum and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Hercules Capital, Inc. vs Blue Owl Capital Corporation
HTGC leads
HTGC leads by 6 AIQ points, primarily on Momentum and Quality. Wall Street currently favors OBDC on target upside.
Fragile: 3 of 6 evidence groups support HTGC, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Hercules Capital, Inc.
Blue Owl Capital Corporation
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors HTGC over OBDC, 51 versus 45 as of Oct 21, 2026. HTGC's advantage is driven primarily by stronger momentum and quality, while OBDC holds the stronger value profile. HTGC also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors OBDC. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor HTGC today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. HTGC lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 6 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Hercules Capital, Inc. and Blue Owl Capital Corporation across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare HTGC and OBDC against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum39 vs 26HTGC +13
- Quality62 vs 51HTGC +11
- Value49 vs 53OBDC +4
- Risk Resilience51 vs 50Even
3 of 6 evidence groups favor HTGC. HTGC’s edge is concentrated in momentum and quality; OBDC keeps a meaningful value edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Momentum +14
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 3 active signals are unchanged.
Largest factor move: Momentum +1, not enough on its own to move the overall score.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 5 active signals are unchanged.
HTGC's lead widened by 4 AIQ points in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — HTGC and OBDC both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
HTGC (Hercules Capital, Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by momentum and quality.
OBDC (Blue Owl Capital Corporation): the counter-case, on value, valuation, analyst expectations.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
HTGCHTGC on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
HTGCHTGC on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
OBDCOBDC on the peer-relative Value factor, by 4 points.
Momentum
HTGCHTGC on the Momentum factor, by 13 points.
Lower downside
HTGCHTGC carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility.
Analyst upside
OBDCOBDC on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors HTGC, analyst targets favor OBDC. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | HTGC | OBDC | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | -4.7% | +31.6% | OBDC has more room |
| Target dispersion | 0% | 0% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 1 | 2 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor HTGC. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | HTGC | 51 vs 45 |
| Fundamentals | HTGC | revenue growth 63.5% vs 28.7%; EPS growth 204.3% vs 3.6%; TTM ROE 17.2% vs 4%; gross margin 89.9% vs 67.6%; operating margin 75.3% vs 48.7% |
| Valuation | OBDC | Value 49 vs 53 |
| Technicals | HTGC | Price vs 50-day -4.6% vs -9.6%; vs 200-day 0.2% vs -11.8% |
| Risk Resilience | Even | Risk Resilience 51 vs 50 |
| Analyst expectations | OBDC | Target upside -4.7% vs 31.6% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of HTGC and OBDC and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 6 points.
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on HTGC.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20HTGC lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 6 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- HTGC +6
- 51 vs 45
- 7 sessions ago
- HTGC +5
- 51 vs 46
- 30 sessions ago
- HTGC +4
- 50 vs 46
- 90 sessions ago
- HTGC +4
- 58 vs 54
The lead has not changed hands in this window.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only HTGC
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (4.95%)
0 bullish / 4 bearish / 1 neutral
Only OBDC
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (2.96%)
- 52-Week Low Proximity — bearish, risk, long horizon (0.1%)
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
Both carry 2 more signals that do not separate them: Bollinger Band Squeeze, MACD Bearish Crossover.
HTGC leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -0.06%, AIQ +4 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -0.4%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1OBDC closes the Momentum gap — currently 13 points behind, the largest single contributor to HTGC's edge.
- 2OBDC's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3HTGC's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
HTGC leads on balance| Metric | HTGC | OBDC |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 63.5% | 28.7% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 204.3% | 3.6% |
| Gross margin | 89.9% | 67.6% |
| Operating margin | 75.3% | 48.7% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 17.2% | 4% |
| Debt to equity | 1.03 | 0.87 |
Performance
HTGC leads 6 of 6 windows| Metric | HTGC | OBDC |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -0.7% | -1.5% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -5.5% | -11% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 2.2% | -8.2% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 3.9% | -13.8% |
| Year to date | -13.5% | -19.4% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -5.1% | -20.9% |
Technicals
HTGC has the stronger structure| Metric | HTGC | OBDC |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 38.4 | 31.1 |
| ADX (14) | 28.1 | 24.8 |
| Price vs 50-day | -4.6% | -9.6% |
| Price vs 200-day | 0.2% | -11.8% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 17.2% | 20.6% |
Risk
Split| Metric | HTGC | OBDC |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.66 | 0.82 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.29 | -1.05 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.41 | -1.66 |
| Max drawdown | -27.1% | -26.6% |
| Current drawdown | -14.5% | -26.4% |
| Annualized volatility | 23.9% | 23.9% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -2.1% | -2.5% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, HTGC or OBDC?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, HTGC is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 51 against OBDC's 45. The edge comes from momentum and quality. OBDC is not without a case — it holds the better value profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is HTGC or OBDC the better buy right now?
HTGC carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor HTGC over OBDC?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. HTGC leads Momentum by 13 points; HTGC leads Quality by 11 points; OBDC leads Value by 4 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, HTGC or OBDC?
Analyst price targets imply -4.7% upside for HTGC and +31.6% for OBDC, so the Street currently favors OBDC. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors HTGC. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, HTGC or OBDC?
OBDC is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. OBDC on the peer-relative Value factor, by 4 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, HTGC or OBDC?
HTGC on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, HTGC or OBDC?
HTGC on the Momentum factor, by 13 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, HTGC or OBDC?
HTGC is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. HTGC carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is HTGC more profitable than OBDC?
HTGC leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 89.9% vs 67.6%; operating margin 75.3% vs 48.7%; ttm roe 17.2% vs 4%.
Is HTGC's lead over OBDC getting stronger or weaker?
HTGC lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 6 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has not changed hands in that window.
What would change the HTGC vs OBDC verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: OBDC closes the Momentum gap — currently 13 points behind, the largest single contributor to HTGC's edge; OBDC's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; HTGC's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about HTGC and OBDC?
HTGC: 1 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. OBDC: 0 bullish / 4 bearish / 1 neutral. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on HTGC is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On OBDC it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare HTGC and OBDC with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.