IP vs PKG Stock Comparison
PKG currently leads IP in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 54 vs 49. The clearest difference is momentum, while IP has the stronger value profile.
What is the main difference between IP and PKG?
PKG leads the current stock comparison as Packaging Corporation of America, with the clearest separation coming from momentum and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
International Paper Company vs Packaging Corporation of America
PKG leads
PKG leads by 5 AIQ points, primarily on Momentum and Risk Resilience, and the lead has widened from 2 points over 30 sessions. Wall Street currently favors IP on target upside.
Competitive: 4 of 6 evidence groups support PKG, its lead is widening, and its signal state is cleanly positive.
International Paper Company
Packaging Corporation of America
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors PKG over IP, 54 versus 49 as of Oct 21, 2026. PKG's advantage is driven primarily by stronger momentum and risk resilience, while IP holds the stronger value profile. PKG also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors IP. 4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor PKG today, and the comparison is rated Competitive on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 5 points. PKG lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 2 to 5 points over 30 sessions.
Compare International Paper Company and Packaging Corporation of America across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare IP and PKG against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum47 vs 82PKG +35
- Value64 vs 34IP +30
- Risk Resilience56 vs 74PKG +18
- Quality32 vs 40PKG +8
4 of 6 evidence groups favor PKG. PKG’s edge is concentrated in momentum and risk resilience; IP keeps a meaningful value edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Momentum +1, not enough on its own to move the overall score.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 4 active signals are unchanged.
Largest factor move: Momentum +26
New signals
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
The lead changed hands: PKG moved ahead of IP in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — IP and PKG both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
PKG (Packaging Corporation of America): the stronger current systematic profile, led by momentum and risk resilience.
IP (International Paper Company): the counter-case, on value, valuation, analyst expectations — but at materially higher volatility, 31.5% against 16.2%.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
PKGPKG on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
PKGPKG on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
IPIP on the peer-relative Value factor, by 30 points.
Momentum
PKGPKG on the Momentum factor, by 35 points.
Lower downside
PKGPKG on Risk Resilience, by 18 points.
Analyst upside
IPIP on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors PKG, analyst targets favor IP. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | IP | PKG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +38.7% | +10.9% | IP has more room |
| Target dispersion | +55.7% | +30.2% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 7 | 7 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Dividend growth
| Dividend metric | IP | PKG |
|---|---|---|
| 5Y dividend CAGR | -2.03% | 8.21% |
| 2020 regular DPS | $2.050 | $3.370 |
| 2025 regular DPS | $1.850 | $5.000 |
| Years increased | 0 | 3 |
| No cut in window | No (4) | Yes |
| Cohort rank | not ranked | #140 |
PKG grew its split-adjusted regular dividend faster over 2020–2025 — 8.21% a year against IP's -2.03%. PKG never reduced its regular dividend in the window; IP did in 4 years.
Yield and payout ratio shown elsewhere on this page are current values, not part of the study window.
Split-adjusted regular dividends per share, 2020–2025, excluding special dividends. Research as of Sep 19, 2026.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor PKG. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | PKG | 49 vs 54 |
| Fundamentals | PKGon balance | EPS growth -118.2% vs 12.5%; TTM ROE -22.4% vs 14.9%; gross margin 27.7% vs 20.1%; operating margin -11.5% vs 12.7% — PKG takes 3 of 4 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | IP | Value 64 vs 34 |
| Technicals | PKG | Price vs 50-day -6.6% vs 0.4%; vs 200-day -10.4% vs 4.8% |
| Risk Resilience | PKG | Risk Resilience 56 vs 74 |
| Analyst expectations | IP | Target upside 38.7% vs 10.9% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of IP and PKG and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The two are close enough that your objective, not the score, should decide.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 5 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader's advantage has been widening. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader's signal state is cleanly positive. (supports the conclusion holding)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on PKG.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20PKG lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 2 to 5 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- PKG +5
- 49 vs 54
- 7 sessions ago
- IP +2
- 46 vs 44
- 30 sessions ago
- PKG +2
- 45 vs 47
- 90 sessions ago
- IP +1
- 47 vs 46
The lead changed hands 2 times in this window, most recently on Oct 20 when PKG moved ahead of IP.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only IP
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (4.49%)
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
3 bullish / 0 bearish
Only PKG
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (4.37%)
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
Both carry 1 more signal that do not separate them: MACD Bullish Crossover.
IP is conflicted, so the timing case there is weaker than the score alone suggests.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -0.18%, AIQ 0 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +0.03%, AIQ +7 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1IP closes the Momentum gap — currently 35 points behind, the largest single contributor to PKG's edge.
- 2IP's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3PKG's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
PKG leads on balance| Metric | IP | PKG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 0.6% | 5.2% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -118.2% | 12.5% |
| Gross margin | 27.7% | 20.1% |
| Operating margin | -11.5% | 12.7% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | -22.4% | 14.9% |
| Debt to equity | 0.67 | 0.94 |
Performance
PKG leads 5 of 6 windows| Metric | IP | PKG |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 5.9% | 3.1% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -5.7% | 0.3% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -11.6% | 4.7% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -4.9% | 13.5% |
| Year to date | -14.5% | 15.9% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -27.8% | 16.4% |
Technicals
PKG has the stronger structure| Metric | IP | PKG |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 55.1 | 68.8 |
| ADX (14) | 27.1 | 20.3 |
| Price vs 50-day | -6.6% | 0.4% |
| Price vs 200-day | -10.4% | 4.8% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 31.5% | 16.2% |
Risk
PKG is the more resilient| Metric | IP | PKG |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.26 | 0.73 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.59 | 0.58 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.85 | 0.9 |
| Max drawdown | -40.3% | -17.7% |
| Current drawdown | -31.5% | -7.2% |
| Annualized volatility | 44.9% | 28% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -4.3% | -2.7% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, IP or PKG?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, PKG is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 54 against IP's 49. The edge comes from momentum and risk resilience. IP is not without a case — it holds the better value profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is IP or PKG the better buy right now?
PKG carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Competitive — 4 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Competitive rating means the two are close enough that your objective, not the score, should decide.
Why does the AIQ Score favor PKG over IP?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. PKG leads Momentum by 35 points; IP leads Value by 30 points; PKG leads Risk Resilience by 18 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, IP or PKG?
Analyst price targets imply +38.7% upside for IP and +10.9% for PKG, so the Street currently favors IP. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors PKG. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, IP or PKG?
IP is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. IP on the peer-relative Value factor, by 30 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, IP or PKG?
PKG on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, IP or PKG?
PKG on the Momentum factor, by 35 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, IP or PKG?
PKG is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. PKG on Risk Resilience, by 18 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is IP more profitable than PKG?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 27.7% vs 20.1%; operating margin -11.5% vs 12.7%; ttm roe -22.4% vs 14.9%. IP leads on one measure and PKG on two measures, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is PKG's lead over IP getting stronger or weaker?
PKG lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 2 to 5 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has changed hands 2 times in that window, most recently on 2026-10-20, when PKG moved ahead of IP.
What would change the IP vs PKG verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: IP closes the Momentum gap — currently 35 points behind, the largest single contributor to PKG's edge; IP's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; PKG's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about IP and PKG?
IP: 1 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. PKG: 3 bullish / 0 bearish. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on IP is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On PKG it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare IP and PKG with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.