ITW vs JCI Stock Comparison
ITW currently leads JCI in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 62 vs 54. The clearest difference is momentum.
What is the main difference between ITW and JCI?
ITW leads the current stock comparison as Illinois Tool Works Inc., with the clearest separation coming from momentum and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Illinois Tool Works Inc. vs Johnson Controls International plc
ITW leads
ITW leads by 8 AIQ points, primarily on Momentum and Risk Resilience, having only recently taken the lead back from JCI. Wall Street currently favors JCI on target upside.
Fragile: 4 of 6 evidence groups support ITW, the lead recently changed hands, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Illinois Tool Works Inc.
Johnson Controls International plc
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors ITW over JCI, 62 versus 54 as of Oct 31, 2026. ITW's advantage is driven primarily by stronger momentum and risk resilience. ITW also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors JCI. 4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor ITW today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. ITW lead: Reversed — JCI led by 9 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; ITW now leads by 8.
Compare Illinois Tool Works Inc. and Johnson Controls International plc across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare ITW and JCI against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum82 vs 65ITW +17
- Risk Resilience62 vs 48ITW +14
- Value46 vs 38ITW +8
- Quality60 vs 63Even
4 of 6 evidence groups favor ITW. ITW’s edge is concentrated in momentum and risk resilience.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-28, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-27.
Largest factor move: Risk Resilience +2, not enough on its own to move the overall score.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 5 active signals are unchanged.
Largest factor move: Momentum +5
New signals
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
ITW's lead narrowed by 2 AIQ points in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — ITW and JCI both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
ITW (Illinois Tool Works Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by momentum and risk resilience.
JCI (Johnson Controls International plc): the counter-case, on technicals, analyst expectations — but at materially higher volatility, 39.7% against 15.2%.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
ITWITW on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
JCIJCI on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
ITWITW on the peer-relative Value factor, by 8 points.
Momentum
ITWITW on the Momentum factor, by 17 points.
Lower downside
ITWITW on Risk Resilience, by 14 points.
Analyst upside
JCIJCI on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors ITW, analyst targets favor JCI. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | ITW | JCI | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +2.5% | +15.7% | JCI has more room |
| Target dispersion | +16.1% | +26.7% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Hold | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 6 | 9 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Dividend growth
| Dividend metric | ITW | JCI |
|---|---|---|
| 5Y dividend CAGR | 7.07% | 8.17% |
| 2020 regular DPS | $4.420 | $1.040 |
| 2025 regular DPS | $6.220 | $1.540 |
| Years increased | 5 | 5 |
| No cut in window | Yes | Yes |
| Cohort rank | #190 | #141 |
JCI grew its split-adjusted regular dividend faster over 2020–2025 — 8.17% a year against ITW's 7.07%. Neither company reduced its regular dividend in any year of the window.
Yield and payout ratio shown elsewhere on this page are current values, not part of the study window.
Split-adjusted regular dividends per share, 2020–2025, excluding special dividends. Research as of Sep 19, 2026.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor ITW. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | ITW | 62 vs 54 |
| Fundamentals | ITWon balance | revenue growth 7.1% vs 7.7%; EPS growth 7.1% vs 21.8%; TTM ROE 101.7% vs 26.9%; gross margin 44.2% vs 36.7%; operating margin 26.5% vs 13.9% — ITW takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | ITW | Value 46 vs 38 |
| Technicals | JCI | Price vs 50-day 2.6% vs 1.4%; vs 200-day 2.1% vs 11.8% |
| Risk Resilience | ITW | Risk Resilience 62 vs 48 |
| Analyst expectations | JCI | Target upside 2.5% vs 15.7% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of ITW and JCI and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 8 points.
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has swung materially session to session. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on ITW.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 29 – Oct 28ITW lead: Reversed — JCI led by 9 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; ITW now leads by 8.
- Today
- ITW +8
- 62 vs 54
- 7 sessions ago
- ITW +16
- 61 vs 45
- 30 sessions ago
- JCI +9
- 50 vs 59
- 90 sessions ago
- ITW +7
- 51 vs 44
The lead changed hands 5 times in this window, most recently on Oct 15 when ITW moved ahead of JCI.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
4 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
Only ITW
- RSI Overbought — bearish, momentum, short horizon
5 bullish / 0 bearish
Only JCI
- 52-Week High Proximity — bullish, risk, long horizon (0.2%)
Both carry 4 more signals that do not separate them: Golden Cross Active, EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish, Uptrend Structure Active, MACD Bullish Crossover.
ITW leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -1.01%, AIQ 0 points).
Price is down while the AIQ Score moved up 2 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price -5.84%, AIQ +2 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1JCI closes the Momentum gap — currently 17 points behind, the largest single contributor to ITW's edge.
- 2JCI's existing bullish trend signals translate into factor-score gains — the rules are already firing, but the scores have not yet followed.
- 3ITW's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 4 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
ITW leads on balance| Metric | ITW | JCI |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 7.1% | 7.7% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 7.1% | 21.8% |
| Gross margin | 44.2% | 36.7% |
| Operating margin | 26.5% | 13.9% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 101.7% | 26.9% |
| Debt to equity | 3.35 | 0.7 |
Performance
JCI leads 5 of 6 windows| Metric | ITW | JCI |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -0.3% | 4.2% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | 7.3% | 5.9% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -2.7% | 9.4% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 3.9% | 11.3% |
| Year to date | 12.1% | 31% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 12.3% | 39.3% |
Technicals
JCI has the stronger structure| Metric | ITW | JCI |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 73.4 | 53.6 |
| ADX (14) | 16.2 | 19 |
| Price vs 50-day | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| Price vs 200-day | 2.1% | 11.8% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 15.2% | 39.7% |
Risk
ITW is the more resilient| Metric | ITW | JCI |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.48 | 1.15 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.47 | 1.11 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.75 | 1.62 |
| Max drawdown | -17.9% | -13% |
| Current drawdown | -7.8% | -0.9% |
| Annualized volatility | 21.2% | 31.6% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -2.2% | -3.2% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, ITW or JCI?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, ITW is the stronger of the two as of Oct 31, 2026, scoring 62 against JCI's 54. The edge comes from momentum and risk resilience. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is ITW or JCI the better buy right now?
ITW carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 31, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 4 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor ITW over JCI?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. ITW leads Momentum by 17 points; ITW leads Risk Resilience by 14 points; ITW leads Value by 8 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, ITW or JCI?
Analyst price targets imply +2.5% upside for ITW and +15.7% for JCI, so the Street currently favors JCI. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors ITW. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, ITW or JCI?
ITW is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. ITW on the peer-relative Value factor, by 8 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, ITW or JCI?
JCI on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, ITW or JCI?
ITW on the Momentum factor, by 17 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, ITW or JCI?
ITW is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. ITW on Risk Resilience, by 14 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is ITW more profitable than JCI?
ITW leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 44.2% vs 36.7%; operating margin 26.5% vs 13.9%; ttm roe 101.7% vs 26.9%.
Is ITW's lead over JCI getting stronger or weaker?
ITW lead: Reversed — JCI led by 9 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; ITW now leads by 8. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-29 and 2026-10-28. The lead has changed hands 5 times in that window, most recently on 2026-10-15, when ITW moved ahead of JCI.
What would change the ITW vs JCI verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: JCI closes the Momentum gap — currently 17 points behind, the largest single contributor to ITW's edge; JCI's existing bullish trend signals translate into factor-score gains — the rules are already firing, but the scores have not yet followed; ITW's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 4 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about ITW and JCI?
ITW: 4 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. JCI: 5 bullish / 0 bearish. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on ITW is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On JCI it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare ITW and JCI with others
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This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.