KEY vs MTB Stock Comparison
Compare KEY and MTB across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between KEY and MTB?
KEY leads the current stock comparison as KeyCorp, with the clearest separation coming from risk resilience and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
KeyCorp vs M&T Bank Corporation
KEY leads
KEY leads by 2 AIQ points, primarily on Risk Resilience and Momentum.
Fragile: 2 of 6 evidence groups support KEY, and its signal state is cleanly positive.
KeyCorp
M&T Bank Corporation
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors KEY over MTB, 53 versus 51 as of Sep 6, 2026. KEY's advantage is driven primarily by stronger risk resilience and momentum. KEY also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 2 of 6 covered evidence groups favor KEY today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 2 points. KEY lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 2 points over 30 sessions.
Compare KeyCorp and M&T Bank Corporation across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare KEY and MTB against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Risk Resilience15%65 vs 59KEY +6
- Momentum25%37 vs 32KEY +5
- Quality30%58 vs 61Even
- Value30%55 vs 53Even
2 of 6 evidence groups favor KEY. KEY’s edge is concentrated in risk resilience and momentum.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-05, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-04.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
KEY's lead was unchanged in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — KEY and MTB both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
KEY (KeyCorp): the stronger current systematic profile, led by risk resilience and momentum.
MTB (M&T Bank Corporation): the counter-case, on fundamentals, technicals.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
KEYKEY on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value at 30% each.
Growth
MTBMTB on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
EvenThe two are level on Value.
Momentum
KEYKEY on the Momentum factor, by 5 points.
Lower downside
KEYKEY on Risk Resilience, by 6 points.
Analyst upside
KEYKEY on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | KEY | MTB | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +14.5% | +6.2% | KEY has more room |
| Target dispersion | +19.7% | +33.4% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Hold | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 8 | 12 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
2 of 6 covered evidence groups favor KEY. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | Even | 53 vs 51 |
| Fundamentals | MTB | revenue growth -24.5% vs 4.2%; EPS growth -2.2% vs 23.3%; TTM ROE 10.1% vs 10.7%; gross margin 64.5% vs 76%; operating margin 18.1% vs 33.2% |
| Valuation | Even | Value 55 vs 53 |
| Technicals | MTB | Price vs 50-day -2.4% vs -2%; vs 200-day 3.6% vs 8.7% |
| Risk Resilience | KEY | Risk Resilience 65 vs 59 |
| Analyst expectations | KEY | Target upside 14.5% vs 6.2% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of KEY and MTB and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 2 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Only 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader's signal state is cleanly positive. (supports the conclusion holding)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on KEY.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Apr 24 – Sep 5KEY lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 2 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- KEY +2
- 53 vs 51
- 7 sessions ago
- KEY +3
- 52 vs 49
- 30 sessions ago
- KEY +2
- 62 vs 60
- 90 sessions ago
- KEY +1
- 62 vs 61
The lead changed hands 2 times in this window, most recently on Aug 20 when KEY moved ahead of MTB.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
2 bullish / 0 bearish / 1 neutral
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (6.05%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
1 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (10.93%)
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
MTB is conflicted, so the timing case there is weaker than the score alone suggests.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +0.27%, AIQ 0 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -0.09%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1MTB closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 6 points behind, the largest single contributor to KEY's edge.
- 2MTB's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it.
- 3KEY's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
MTB leads on balance| Metric | KEY | MTB |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -24.5% | 4.2% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -2.2% | 23.3% |
| Gross margin | 64.5% | 76% |
| Operating margin | 18.1% | 33.2% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 10.1% | 10.7% |
| Debt to equity | 0.74 | 0.65 |
Performance
MTB leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | KEY | MTB |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 1.2% | 1.1% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -2.4% | -4.2% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 1.9% | 7.8% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 11.7% | 14% |
| Year to date | 7.5% | 19% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 17% | 20.8% |
Technicals
MTB has the stronger structure| Metric | KEY | MTB |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 36.9 | 33.1 |
| ADX (14) | 17.7 | 25.2 |
| Price vs 50-day | -2.4% | -2% |
| Price vs 200-day | 3.6% | 8.7% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 20.6% | 18.8% |
Risk
KEY is the more resilient| Metric | KEY | MTB |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.8 | 0.59 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.57 | 0.72 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.78 | 1.08 |
| Max drawdown | -18.6% | -17.6% |
| Current drawdown | -7.5% | -5.6% |
| Annualized volatility | 23.6% | 21.6% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -2.2% | -2.2% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, KEY or MTB?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, KEY is the stronger of the two as of Sep 6, 2026, scoring 53 against MTB's 51. The edge comes from risk resilience and momentum. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is KEY or MTB the better buy right now?
KEY carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 6, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 2 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor KEY over MTB?
The composite weights Quality at 30%, Value at 30%, Momentum at 25% and Risk Resilience at 15%. KEY leads Risk Resilience by 6 points; KEY leads Momentum by 5 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, KEY or MTB?
Analyst price targets imply +14.5% upside for KEY and +6.2% for MTB, so the Street currently favors KEY. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, KEY or MTB?
Neither name separates on the peer-relative Value factor. The two are level on Value. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, KEY or MTB?
MTB on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, KEY or MTB?
KEY on the Momentum factor, by 5 points. Momentum carries 25% of the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, KEY or MTB?
KEY is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. KEY on Risk Resilience, by 6 points. The Risk Resilience factor weights 15% of the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is KEY more profitable than MTB?
MTB leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 64.5% vs 76%; operating margin 18.1% vs 33.2%; ttm roe 10.1% vs 10.7%.
Is KEY's lead over MTB getting stronger or weaker?
KEY lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 2 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-04-24 and 2026-09-05. The lead has changed hands 2 times in that window, most recently on 2026-08-20, when KEY moved ahead of MTB.
What would change the KEY vs MTB verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: MTB closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 6 points behind, the largest single contributor to KEY's edge; MTB's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it; KEY's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict; a regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about KEY and MTB?
KEY: 2 bullish / 0 bearish / 1 neutral. MTB: 1 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on KEY is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On MTB it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare KEY and MTB with others
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality (30%), Value (30%), Momentum (25%) and Risk (15%). Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.