LITE vs MTSI Stock Comparison
MTSI currently leads LITE in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 39 vs 31. The clearest difference is quality.
What is the main difference between LITE and MTSI?
MTSI leads the current stock comparison as MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc., with the clearest separation coming from quality and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Lumentum Holdings Inc. vs MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.
MTSI leads
MTSI leads by 8 AIQ points, primarily on Quality.
Fragile: 3 of 6 evidence groups support MTSI, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Lumentum Holdings Inc.
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors MTSI over LITE, 39 versus 31 as of Oct 21, 2026. MTSI's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality. MTSI also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor MTSI today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. MTSI lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 8 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Lumentum Holdings Inc. and MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price return from daily closes; distributions are not included.
Price return comparison
Growth of $10,000, price only
Split-adjusted closes only. Distributions are excluded, which understates the return of any fund or stock that pays them.
Compare LITE and MTSI against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Quality43 vs 69MTSI +26
- Risk Resilience39 vs 41Even
- Value24 vs 25Even
- Momentum21 vs 20Even
3 of 6 evidence groups favor MTSI. MTSI’s edge is concentrated in quality.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Momentum -1, not enough on its own to move the overall score.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 4 active signals are unchanged.
Largest factor move: Momentum -1
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 3 active signals are unchanged.
MTSI's lead narrowed by 1 AIQ point in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — LITE and MTSI both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
MTSI (MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality.
LITE (Lumentum Holdings Inc.): the counter-case, on technicals — but at materially higher volatility, 73.4% against 66.9%.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
MTSIMTSI on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
MTSIMTSI on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
EvenThe two are level on Value.
Momentum
EvenThe two are level on Momentum.
Lower downside
MTSIMTSI carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility.
Analyst upside
MTSIMTSI on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | LITE | MTSI | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +27.6% | +48.8% | MTSI has more room |
| Target dispersion | +41.5% | +43.1% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 13 | 7 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor MTSI. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | MTSI | 31 vs 39 |
| Fundamentals | MTSIon balance | revenue growth 24.5% vs 18.4%; EPS growth -49.3% vs 112.9%; TTM ROE -3% vs 17.1%; gross margin 41.7% vs 56.6%; operating margin 17.4% vs 18.1% — MTSI takes 4 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | Even | Value 24 vs 25 |
| Technicals | LITE | Price vs 50-day -8.6% vs -3.8%; vs 200-day 5.3% vs -6.4% |
| Risk Resilience | Even | Risk Resilience 39 vs 41 |
| Analyst expectations | MTSI | Target upside 27.6% vs 48.8% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of LITE and MTSI and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 8 points.
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on MTSI.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20MTSI lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 8 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- MTSI +8
- 31 vs 39
- 7 sessions ago
- MTSI +8
- 33 vs 41
- 30 sessions ago
- MTSI +10
- 42 vs 52
- 90 sessions ago
- MTSI +8
- 50 vs 58
The lead changed hands 7 times in this window, most recently on Sep 2 when MTSI moved ahead of LITE.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only LITE
- Keltner Channel Breakdown — bearish, volatility, short horizon
1 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
No signal that the other name lacks.
Both carry 3 more signals that do not separate them: Golden Cross Active, ATR Expansion - Breakout Mode, MACD Bearish Crossover.
MTSI leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +3.43%, AIQ 0 points).
Price is up while the AIQ Score moved down 1 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price +3.85%, AIQ -1 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1LITE closes the Quality gap — currently 26 points behind, the largest single contributor to MTSI's edge.
- 2LITE's Keltner Channel Breakdown resolves — a bearish volatility rule currently active against it.
- 3MTSI's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
MTSI leads on balance| Metric | LITE | MTSI |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 24.5% | 18.4% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -49.3% | 112.9% |
| Gross margin | 41.7% | 56.6% |
| Operating margin | 17.4% | 18.1% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | -3% | 17.1% |
| Debt to equity | 0.36 | 0.24 |
Performance
LITE leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | LITE | MTSI |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -16.7% | -14.8% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -13% | -6% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -0.9% | -7% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -1.7% | -5.3% |
| Year to date | 123.2% | 53.5% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 405.4% | 90.6% |
Technicals
LITE has the stronger structure| Metric | LITE | MTSI |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 37.7 | 44 |
| ADX (14) | 20.8 | 18 |
| Price vs 50-day | -8.6% | -3.8% |
| Price vs 200-day | 5.3% | -6.4% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 73.4% | 66.9% |
Risk
Split| Metric | LITE | MTSI |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.01 | 2.24 |
| Sharpe ratio | 2.08 | 1.29 |
| Sortino ratio | 3.87 | 1.93 |
| Max drawdown | -42.8% | -44.2% |
| Current drawdown | -27.4% | -35.8% |
| Annualized volatility | 99.1% | 63.1% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -8.8% | -6.8% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, LITE or MTSI?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, MTSI is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 39 against LITE's 31. The edge comes from quality. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is LITE or MTSI the better buy right now?
MTSI carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor MTSI over LITE?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. MTSI leads Quality by 26 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, LITE or MTSI?
Analyst price targets imply +27.6% upside for LITE and +48.8% for MTSI, so the Street currently favors MTSI. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, LITE or MTSI?
Neither name separates on the peer-relative Value factor. The two are level on Value. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, LITE or MTSI?
MTSI on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, LITE or MTSI?
The two are level on Momentum. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, LITE or MTSI?
MTSI is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. MTSI carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is LITE more profitable than MTSI?
MTSI leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 41.7% vs 56.6%; operating margin 17.4% vs 18.1%; ttm roe -3% vs 17.1%.
Is MTSI's lead over LITE getting stronger or weaker?
MTSI lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 8 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has changed hands 7 times in that window, most recently on 2026-09-02, when MTSI moved ahead of LITE.
What would change the LITE vs MTSI verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: LITE closes the Quality gap — currently 26 points behind, the largest single contributor to MTSI's edge; LITE's Keltner Channel Breakdown resolves — a bearish volatility rule currently active against it; MTSI's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about LITE and MTSI?
LITE: 1 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. MTSI: 1 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on LITE is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On MTSI it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare LITE and MTSI with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.