MGM vs TKO Stock Comparison
Compare MGM and TKO across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between MGM and TKO?
MGM leads the current stock comparison as MGM Resorts International, with the clearest separation coming from value and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
MGM Resorts International vs TKO Group Holdings, Inc.
MGM leads
MGM leads by 10 AIQ points, primarily on Value, having only recently taken the lead back from TKO. Wall Street currently favors TKO on target upside.
Fragile: 3 of 6 evidence groups support MGM, the lead recently changed hands, and its current signal state is conflicted.
MGM Resorts International
TKO Group Holdings, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors MGM over TKO, 46 versus 36 as of Sep 6, 2026. MGM's advantage is driven primarily by stronger value. MGM also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors TKO. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor MGM today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. MGM lead: Reversed — TKO led by 3 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; MGM now leads by 10.
Compare MGM Resorts International and TKO Group Holdings, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare MGM and TKO against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Value30%64 vs 30MGM +34
- Risk Resilience15%54 vs 51Even
- Quality30%37 vs 39Even
- Momentum25%31 vs 31Even
3 of 6 evidence groups favor MGM. MGM’s edge is concentrated in value.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-05, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-04.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
MGM's lead was unchanged in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — MGM and TKO both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
MGM (MGM Resorts International): the stronger current systematic profile, led by value.
TKO (TKO Group Holdings, Inc.): the counter-case, on analyst expectations — but at materially higher volatility, 35.9% against 18.2%.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
MGMMGM on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value at 30% each.
Growth
MGMMGM on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
MGMMGM on the peer-relative Value factor, by 34 points.
Momentum
EvenThe two are level on Momentum.
Lower downside
MGMMGM carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility.
Analyst upside
TKOTKO on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors MGM, analyst targets favor TKO. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | MGM | TKO | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +10.8% | +22.8% | TKO has more room |
| Target dispersion | +54.8% | +13.1% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 11 | 5 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor MGM. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | MGM | 46 vs 36 |
| Fundamentals | Even | EPS growth 128.6% vs 17.2%; TTM ROE 17% vs 6.4%; gross margin 44.2% vs 54.1%; operating margin 5.7% vs 20% |
| Valuation | MGM | Value 64 vs 30 |
| Technicals | MGM | Price vs 50-day -8.3% vs -1.9%; vs 200-day 4.1% vs -5.7% |
| Risk Resilience | Even | Risk Resilience 54 vs 51 |
| Analyst expectations | TKO | Target upside 10.8% vs 22.8% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of MGM and TKO and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 10 points.
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on MGM.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Apr 24 – Sep 5MGM lead: Reversed — TKO led by 3 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; MGM now leads by 10.
- Today
- MGM +10
- 46 vs 36
- 7 sessions ago
- MGM +12
- 46 vs 34
- 30 sessions ago
- TKO +3
- 47 vs 50
- 90 sessions ago
- MGM +19
- 52 vs 33
The lead changed hands 5 times in this window, most recently on Aug 20 when MGM moved ahead of TKO.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
2 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (13.54%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- RSI Oversold - Potential Bounce — bullish, momentum, short horizon
0 bullish / 3 bearish
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (4.04%)
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
MGM leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +0.22%, AIQ 0 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -1.8%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1TKO closes the Value gap — currently 34 points behind, the largest single contributor to MGM's edge.
- 2TKO's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3MGM's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 2 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
Split| Metric | MGM | TKO |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -0.1% | -3.1% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 128.6% | 17.2% |
| Gross margin | 44.2% | 54.1% |
| Operating margin | 5.7% | 20% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 17% | 6.4% |
| Debt to equity | 11.87 | 1.46 |
Performance
Split across windows| Metric | MGM | TKO |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -2.5% | 0.7% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -7.3% | -0.3% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -13.2% | -8.6% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 15.9% | -8.2% |
| Year to date | 13% | -11% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 8.2% | -0.3% |
Technicals
MGM has the stronger structure| Metric | MGM | TKO |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 26.6 | 39.7 |
| ADX (14) | 23.9 | 18.1 |
| Price vs 50-day | -8.3% | -1.9% |
| Price vs 200-day | 4.1% | -5.7% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 18.2% | 35.9% |
Risk
Split| Metric | MGM | TKO |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.81 | 0.49 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.36 | -0.03 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.68 | -0.05 |
| Max drawdown | -19.6% | -20.2% |
| Current drawdown | -18.7% | -17.3% |
| Annualized volatility | 38% | 31.7% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -3.3% | -3.3% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, MGM or TKO?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, MGM is the stronger of the two as of Sep 6, 2026, scoring 46 against TKO's 36. The edge comes from value. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is MGM or TKO the better buy right now?
MGM carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 6, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor MGM over TKO?
The composite weights Quality at 30%, Value at 30%, Momentum at 25% and Risk Resilience at 15%. MGM leads Value by 34 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, MGM or TKO?
Analyst price targets imply +10.8% upside for MGM and +22.8% for TKO, so the Street currently favors TKO. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors MGM. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, MGM or TKO?
MGM is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. MGM on the peer-relative Value factor, by 34 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, MGM or TKO?
MGM on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, MGM or TKO?
The two are level on Momentum. Momentum carries 25% of the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, MGM or TKO?
MGM is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. MGM carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility. The Risk Resilience factor weights 15% of the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is MGM more profitable than TKO?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 44.2% vs 54.1%; operating margin 5.7% vs 20%; ttm roe 17% vs 6.4%. MGM leads on one measure and TKO on two measures, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is MGM's lead over TKO getting stronger or weaker?
MGM lead: Reversed — TKO led by 3 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; MGM now leads by 10. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-04-24 and 2026-09-05. The lead has changed hands 5 times in that window, most recently on 2026-08-20, when MGM moved ahead of TKO.
What would change the MGM vs TKO verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: TKO closes the Value gap — currently 34 points behind, the largest single contributor to MGM's edge; TKO's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; MGM's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 2 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about MGM and TKO?
MGM: 2 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. TKO: 0 bullish / 3 bearish. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on MGM is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On TKO it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare MGM and TKO with others
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality (30%), Value (30%), Momentum (25%) and Risk (15%). Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.