MTH vs NVR Stock Comparison
Compare MTH and NVR across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between MTH and NVR?
NVR leads the current stock comparison as NVR, Inc., with the clearest separation coming from quality and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Meritage Homes Corporation vs NVR, Inc.
NVR leads
NVR leads by 2 AIQ points, primarily on Quality and Risk Resilience. Wall Street currently favors MTH on target upside.
Fragile: 3 of 6 evidence groups support NVR.
Meritage Homes Corporation
NVR, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors NVR over MTH, 50 versus 48 as of Sep 6, 2026. NVR's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality and risk resilience, while MTH holds the stronger value profile. NVR also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors MTH. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor NVR today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 2 points. NVR lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 2 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Meritage Homes Corporation and NVR, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare MTH and NVR against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Value30%65 vs 32MTH +33
- Quality30%39 vs 66NVR +27
- Risk Resilience15%61 vs 77NVR +16
- Momentum25%29 vs 38NVR +9
3 of 6 evidence groups favor NVR. NVR’s edge is concentrated in quality and risk resilience; MTH keeps a meaningful value edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-05, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-04.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
NVR's lead was unchanged in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — MTH and NVR both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
NVR (NVR, Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality and risk resilience.
MTH (Meritage Homes Corporation): the counter-case, on value, valuation, analyst expectations — but at materially higher volatility, 34.9% against 21%.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
NVRNVR on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value at 30% each.
Growth
MTHMTH on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
MTHMTH on the peer-relative Value factor, by 33 points.
Momentum
NVRNVR on the Momentum factor, by 9 points.
Lower downside
NVRNVR on Risk Resilience, by 16 points.
Analyst upside
MTHMTH on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors NVR, analyst targets favor MTH. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | MTH | NVR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +28.8% | +17.3% | MTH has more room |
| Target dispersion | +15% | +20.2% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Hold | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 3 | 3 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor NVR. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | Even | 48 vs 50 |
| Fundamentals | NVRon balance | revenue growth 31% vs 23.7%; EPS growth 67.1% vs 22.6%; TTM ROE 6.4% vs 31%; gross margin 18.9% vs 22.2%; operating margin 8.4% vs 14.9% — NVR takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | MTH | Value 65 vs 32 |
| Technicals | NVR | Price vs 50-day -8.7% vs -1.8%; vs 200-day -4.3% vs -7.5% |
| Risk Resilience | NVR | Risk Resilience 61 vs 77 |
| Analyst expectations | MTH | Target upside 28.8% vs 17.3% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of MTH and NVR and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 2 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on NVR.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Apr 24 – Sep 5NVR lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 2 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- NVR +2
- 48 vs 50
- 7 sessions ago
- NVR +8
- 47 vs 55
- 30 sessions ago
- NVR +3
- 52 vs 55
- 90 sessions ago
- NVR +1
- 59 vs 60
The lead changed hands 9 times in this window, most recently on Aug 19 when NVR moved ahead of MTH.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (4.82%)
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
0 bullish / 3 bearish
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (6.10%)
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
MTH is conflicted, so the timing case there is weaker than the score alone suggests.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -0.21%, AIQ 0 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -1.18%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1MTH closes the Quality gap — currently 27 points behind, the largest single contributor to NVR's edge.
- 2MTH's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it.
- 3NVR starts generating bearish momentum or trend signals.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
NVR leads on balance| Metric | MTH | NVR |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 31% | 23.7% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 67.1% | 22.6% |
| Gross margin | 18.9% | 22.2% |
| Operating margin | 8.4% | 14.9% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 6.4% | 31% |
| Debt to equity | 0.37 | 0.31 |
Performance
Split across windows| Metric | MTH | NVR |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -5.2% | -1.5% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -9.7% | -1.4% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -1.5% | 1.9% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -0.5% | -9.5% |
| Year to date | 2.3% | -13.6% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -12.3% | -23.1% |
Technicals
NVR has the stronger structure| Metric | MTH | NVR |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 36.4 | 50 |
| ADX (14) | 14.8 | 6.6 |
| Price vs 50-day | -8.7% | -1.8% |
| Price vs 200-day | -4.3% | -7.5% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 34.9% | 21% |
Risk
NVR is the more resilient| Metric | MTH | NVR |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.98 | 0.54 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.43 | -1.07 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.82 | -1.72 |
| Max drawdown | -29.1% | -34.9% |
| Current drawdown | -21% | -26.3% |
| Annualized volatility | 37.6% | 27.3% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -3.5% | -2.6% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, MTH or NVR?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, NVR is the stronger of the two as of Sep 6, 2026, scoring 50 against MTH's 48. The edge comes from quality and risk resilience. MTH is not without a case — it holds the better value profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is MTH or NVR the better buy right now?
NVR carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 6, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 2 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor NVR over MTH?
The composite weights Quality at 30%, Value at 30%, Momentum at 25% and Risk Resilience at 15%. MTH leads Value by 33 points; NVR leads Quality by 27 points; NVR leads Risk Resilience by 16 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, MTH or NVR?
Analyst price targets imply +28.8% upside for MTH and +17.3% for NVR, so the Street currently favors MTH. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors NVR. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, MTH or NVR?
MTH is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. MTH on the peer-relative Value factor, by 33 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, MTH or NVR?
MTH on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, MTH or NVR?
NVR on the Momentum factor, by 9 points. Momentum carries 25% of the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, MTH or NVR?
NVR is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. NVR on Risk Resilience, by 16 points. The Risk Resilience factor weights 15% of the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is MTH more profitable than NVR?
NVR leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 18.9% vs 22.2%; operating margin 8.4% vs 14.9%; ttm roe 6.4% vs 31%.
Is NVR's lead over MTH getting stronger or weaker?
NVR lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 2 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-04-24 and 2026-09-05. The lead has changed hands 9 times in that window, most recently on 2026-08-19, when NVR moved ahead of MTH.
What would change the MTH vs NVR verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: MTH closes the Quality gap — currently 27 points behind, the largest single contributor to NVR's edge; MTH's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it; NVR starts generating bearish momentum or trend signals; a regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about MTH and NVR?
MTH: 1 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. NVR: 0 bullish / 3 bearish. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on MTH is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On NVR it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare MTH and NVR with others
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality (30%), Value (30%), Momentum (25%) and Risk (15%). Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.