MTH vs TOL Stock Comparison
TOL currently leads MTH in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 54 vs 49. The clearest difference is quality, while MTH has the stronger value profile.
What is the main difference between MTH and TOL?
TOL leads the current stock comparison as Toll Brothers, Inc., with the clearest separation coming from quality and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Meritage Homes Corporation vs Toll Brothers, Inc.
TOL leads
TOL leads by 5 AIQ points, primarily on Quality and Momentum. Wall Street currently favors MTH on target upside.
Fragile: 4 of 6 evidence groups support TOL, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Meritage Homes Corporation
Toll Brothers, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors TOL over MTH, 54 versus 49 as of Oct 21, 2026. TOL's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality and momentum, while MTH holds the stronger value profile. TOL also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors MTH. 4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor TOL today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 5 points. TOL lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 5 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Meritage Homes Corporation and Toll Brothers, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare MTH and TOL against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Quality39 vs 50TOL +11
- Momentum35 vs 44TOL +9
- Risk Resilience59 vs 68TOL +9
- Value65 vs 60MTH +5
4 of 6 evidence groups favor TOL. TOL’s edge is concentrated in quality and momentum; MTH keeps a meaningful value edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Momentum +8
New signals
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
Largest factor move: Momentum +11
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 3 active signals are unchanged.
TOL's lead was unchanged in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — MTH and TOL both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
TOL (Toll Brothers, Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality and momentum.
MTH (Meritage Homes Corporation): the counter-case, on value, valuation, analyst expectations — but at materially higher volatility, 35.2% against 25.3%.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
TOLTOL on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
MTHMTH on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
MTHMTH on the peer-relative Value factor, by 5 points.
Momentum
TOLTOL on the Momentum factor, by 9 points.
Lower downside
TOLTOL on Risk Resilience, by 9 points.
Analyst upside
MTHMTH on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors TOL, analyst targets favor MTH. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | MTH | TOL | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +36.5% | +28.2% | MTH has more room |
| Target dispersion | +34.6% | +42.2% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 4 | 8 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor TOL. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | TOL | 49 vs 54 |
| Fundamentals | TOLon balance | revenue growth 31% vs 5%; EPS growth 67.1% vs 8.8%; TTM ROE 6.4% vs 14.2%; gross margin 18.9% vs 24.2%; operating margin 8.4% vs 13.8% — TOL takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | MTH | Value 65 vs 60 |
| Technicals | TOL | Price vs 50-day -9.8% vs -2.8%; vs 200-day -13% vs -6% |
| Risk Resilience | TOL | Risk Resilience 59 vs 68 |
| Analyst expectations | MTH | Target upside 36.5% vs 28.2% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of MTH and TOL and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 5 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on TOL.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20TOL lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 5 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- TOL +5
- 49 vs 54
- 7 sessions ago
- TOL +5
- 47 vs 52
- 30 sessions ago
- TOL +4
- 51 vs 55
- 90 sessions ago
- TOL +1
- 52 vs 53
The lead has not changed hands in this window.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only MTH
- ATR Expansion - Breakout Mode — neutral, volatility, short horizon (3.60%)
1 bullish / 2 bearish, conflicted
No signal that the other name lacks.
Both carry 3 more signals that do not separate them: Death Cross Active, Downtrend Structure Active, MACD Bullish Crossover.
TOL leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price is down while the AIQ Score moved up 2 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price -1.51%, AIQ +2 points).
Price is down while the AIQ Score moved up 2 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price -0.33%, AIQ +2 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1MTH closes the Quality gap — currently 11 points behind, the largest single contributor to TOL's edge.
- 2MTH's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3TOL's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
TOL leads on balance| Metric | MTH | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 31% | 5% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 67.1% | 8.8% |
| Gross margin | 18.9% | 24.2% |
| Operating margin | 8.4% | 13.8% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 6.4% | 14.2% |
| Debt to equity | 0.37 | 0.32 |
Performance
TOL leads 5 of 6 windows| Metric | MTH | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 3.4% | 2.1% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -9.3% | -1.5% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -16.7% | -9% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -13.3% | -8.6% |
| Year to date | -8.5% | 0.2% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -13.7% | 0.9% |
Technicals
TOL has the stronger structure| Metric | MTH | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 42.2 | 51.4 |
| ADX (14) | 26.1 | 10.7 |
| Price vs 50-day | -9.8% | -2.8% |
| Price vs 200-day | -13% | -6% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 35.2% | 25.3% |
Risk
TOL is the more resilient| Metric | MTH | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.06 | 1.3 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.31 | 0.05 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.6 | 0.1 |
| Max drawdown | -32.1% | -25.3% |
| Current drawdown | -29.3% | -18.4% |
| Annualized volatility | 38.4% | 34.3% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -3.7% | -3.1% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, MTH or TOL?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, TOL is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 54 against MTH's 49. The edge comes from quality and momentum. MTH is not without a case — it holds the better value profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is MTH or TOL the better buy right now?
TOL carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 4 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 5 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor TOL over MTH?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. TOL leads Quality by 11 points; TOL leads Momentum by 9 points; TOL leads Risk Resilience by 9 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, MTH or TOL?
Analyst price targets imply +36.5% upside for MTH and +28.2% for TOL, so the Street currently favors MTH. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors TOL. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, MTH or TOL?
MTH is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. MTH on the peer-relative Value factor, by 5 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, MTH or TOL?
MTH on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, MTH or TOL?
TOL on the Momentum factor, by 9 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, MTH or TOL?
TOL is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. TOL on Risk Resilience, by 9 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is MTH more profitable than TOL?
TOL leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 18.9% vs 24.2%; operating margin 8.4% vs 13.8%; ttm roe 6.4% vs 14.2%.
Is TOL's lead over MTH getting stronger or weaker?
TOL lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 5 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has not changed hands in that window.
What would change the MTH vs TOL verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: MTH closes the Quality gap — currently 11 points behind, the largest single contributor to TOL's edge; MTH's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; TOL's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about MTH and TOL?
MTH: 1 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. TOL: 1 bullish / 2 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on MTH is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On TOL it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare MTH and TOL with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.