ODFL vs UPS Stock Comparison
ODFL currently leads UPS in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 61 vs 57. The clearest difference is quality, while UPS has the stronger value profile.
What is the main difference between ODFL and UPS?
ODFL leads the current stock comparison as Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., with the clearest separation coming from quality and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. vs United Parcel Service, Inc.
ODFL leads
ODFL leads by 4 AIQ points, primarily on Quality and Momentum, and the lead has widened from 1 points over 30 sessions.
Fragile: 4 of 6 evidence groups support ODFL, its lead is widening, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.
United Parcel Service, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors ODFL over UPS, 61 versus 57 as of Oct 21, 2026. ODFL's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality and momentum, while UPS holds the stronger value profile. ODFL also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor ODFL today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 4 points. ODFL lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 1 to 4 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. and United Parcel Service, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare ODFL and UPS against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Value32 vs 69UPS +37
- Quality69 vs 38ODFL +31
- Momentum78 vs 61ODFL +17
- Risk Resilience72 vs 64ODFL +8
4 of 6 evidence groups favor ODFL. ODFL’s edge is concentrated in quality and momentum; UPS keeps a meaningful value edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Momentum +17
New signals
- RSI Overbought — bearish, momentum, short horizon
Largest factor move: Momentum +2
New signals
- BB Upper Band Breach — bearish, volatility, short horizon
- RSI Overbought — bearish, momentum, short horizon
ODFL's lead widened by 4 AIQ points in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — ODFL and UPS both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
ODFL (Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality and momentum.
UPS (United Parcel Service, Inc.): the counter-case, on value, valuation.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
ODFLODFL on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
ODFLODFL on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
UPSUPS on the peer-relative Value factor, by 37 points.
Momentum
ODFLODFL on the Momentum factor, by 17 points.
Lower downside
ODFLODFL on Risk Resilience, by 8 points.
Analyst upside
ODFLODFL on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | ODFL | UPS | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +21.8% | +19.5% | ODFL has more room |
| Target dispersion | +27.4% | +47.9% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Hold | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 15 | 12 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Dividend growth
| Dividend metric | ODFL | UPS |
|---|---|---|
| 5Y dividend CAGR | 30.00% | 10.18% |
| 2020 regular DPS | $0.302 | $4.040 |
| 2025 regular DPS | $1.120 | $6.560 |
| Years increased | 5 | 5 |
| No cut in window | Yes | Yes |
| Cohort rank | #1 | #95 |
ODFL grew its split-adjusted regular dividend faster over 2020–2025 — 30.00% a year against UPS's 10.18%. Neither company reduced its regular dividend in any year of the window.
Yield and payout ratio shown elsewhere on this page are current values, not part of the study window.
Split-adjusted regular dividends per share, 2020–2025, excluding special dividends. Research as of Sep 19, 2026.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor ODFL. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | ODFL | 61 vs 57 |
| Fundamentals | ODFLon balance | revenue growth 16.4% vs 7.7%; EPS growth 47.4% vs -30.4%; TTM ROE 24.9% vs 29.1%; gross margin 31.7% vs 16.6%; operating margin 25.8% vs 7.3% — ODFL takes 4 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | UPS | Value 32 vs 69 |
| Technicals | Even | Price vs 50-day 0.4% vs 0.4%; vs 200-day -6.4% vs -5.9% |
| Risk Resilience | ODFL | Risk Resilience 72 vs 64 |
| Analyst expectations | ODFL | Target upside 21.8% vs 19.5% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of ODFL and UPS and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 4 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader's advantage has been widening. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on ODFL.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20ODFL lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 1 to 4 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- ODFL +4
- 61 vs 57
- 7 sessions ago
- ODFL +1
- 57 vs 56
- 30 sessions ago
- ODFL +1
- 50 vs 49
- 90 sessions ago
- Level
- 49 vs 49
The lead changed hands 3 times in this window, most recently on Aug 13 when UPS moved ahead of ODFL.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 2 bearish, conflicted
No signal that the other name lacks.
1 bullish / 4 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only UPS
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- BB Upper Band Breach — bearish, volatility, short horizon
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
Both carry 3 more signals that do not separate them: Death Cross Active, RSI Overbought, MACD Bullish Crossover.
ODFL leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +0.3%, AIQ +5 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +1.07%, AIQ +1 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1UPS closes the Quality gap — currently 31 points behind, the largest single contributor to ODFL's edge.
- 2UPS's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3ODFL's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
ODFL leads on balance| Metric | ODFL | UPS |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 16.4% | 7.7% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 47.4% | -30.4% |
| Gross margin | 31.7% | 16.6% |
| Operating margin | 25.8% | 7.3% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 24.9% | 29.1% |
| Debt to equity | 0 | 1.9 |
Performance
Split across windows| Metric | ODFL | UPS |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 2.8% | 3.9% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | 6.2% | 2.8% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -19.1% | -15% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -15.5% | -7.3% |
| Year to date | 20.1% | -0.7% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 36.4% | 15% |
Technicals
Split| Metric | ODFL | UPS |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 75.5 | 74.5 |
| ADX (14) | 30.3 | 33 |
| Price vs 50-day | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Price vs 200-day | -6.4% | -5.9% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 23.3% | 21.2% |
Risk
ODFL is the more resilient| Metric | ODFL | UPS |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.93 | 0.82 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.91 | 0.45 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.4 | 0.58 |
| Max drawdown | -30.4% | -23.3% |
| Current drawdown | -24.3% | -17.9% |
| Annualized volatility | 37.7% | 31.1% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -3.3% | -3.4% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, ODFL or UPS?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, ODFL is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 61 against UPS's 57. The edge comes from quality and momentum. UPS is not without a case — it holds the better value profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is ODFL or UPS the better buy right now?
ODFL carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 4 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 4 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor ODFL over UPS?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. UPS leads Value by 37 points; ODFL leads Quality by 31 points; ODFL leads Momentum by 17 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, ODFL or UPS?
Analyst price targets imply +21.8% upside for ODFL and +19.5% for UPS, so the Street currently favors ODFL. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, ODFL or UPS?
UPS is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. UPS on the peer-relative Value factor, by 37 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, ODFL or UPS?
ODFL on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, ODFL or UPS?
ODFL on the Momentum factor, by 17 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, ODFL or UPS?
ODFL is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. ODFL on Risk Resilience, by 8 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is ODFL more profitable than UPS?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 31.7% vs 16.6%; operating margin 25.8% vs 7.3%; ttm roe 24.9% vs 29.1%. ODFL leads on two measures and UPS on one measure, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is ODFL's lead over UPS getting stronger or weaker?
ODFL lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 1 to 4 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has changed hands 3 times in that window, most recently on 2026-08-13, when UPS moved ahead of ODFL.
What would change the ODFL vs UPS verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: UPS closes the Quality gap — currently 31 points behind, the largest single contributor to ODFL's edge; UPS's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; ODFL's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about ODFL and UPS?
ODFL: 1 bullish / 2 bearish, conflicted. UPS: 1 bullish / 4 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on ODFL is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On UPS it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare ODFL and UPS with others
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How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.