SMCI vs ARM Stock Comparison
SMCI currently leads ARM in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 48 vs 37. The clearest difference is value, while ARM has the stronger quality profile.
What is the main difference between SMCI and ARM?
SMCI leads the current stock comparison as Super Micro Computer, Inc., with the clearest separation coming from value and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Super Micro Computer, Inc. vs Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares
SMCI leads
SMCI leads by 11 AIQ points, primarily on Value and Momentum, and the lead has widened from 6 points over 30 sessions. Wall Street currently favors ARM on target upside.
Competitive: 4 of 6 evidence groups support SMCI, its lead is widening, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Super Micro Computer, Inc.
Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors SMCI over ARM, 48 versus 37 as of Oct 21, 2026. SMCI's advantage is driven primarily by stronger value and momentum, while ARM holds the stronger quality profile. SMCI also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors ARM. 4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor SMCI today, and the comparison is rated Competitive on stability: the leader is throwing conflicting signals. SMCI lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 6 to 11 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Super Micro Computer, Inc. and Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price return from daily closes; distributions are not included.
Price return comparison
Growth of $10,000, price only
Split-adjusted closes only. Distributions are excluded, which understates the return of any fund or stock that pays them.
Compare SMCI and ARM against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Value74 vs 24SMCI +50
- Quality53 vs 72ARM +19
- Momentum20 vs 8SMCI +12
- Risk Resilience36 vs 39Even
4 of 6 evidence groups favor SMCI. SMCI’s edge is concentrated in value and momentum; ARM keeps a meaningful quality edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
No factor moved materially.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 5 active signals are unchanged.
Largest factor move: Momentum -7
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 6 active signals are unchanged.
SMCI's lead widened by 1 AIQ point in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — SMCI and ARM both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
SMCI (Super Micro Computer, Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by value and momentum.
ARM (Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares): the counter-case, on quality, analyst expectations.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
SMCISMCI on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
SMCISMCI on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
SMCISMCI on the peer-relative Value factor, by 50 points.
Momentum
SMCISMCI on the Momentum factor, by 12 points.
Lower downside
SMCISMCI carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility.
Analyst upside
ARMARM on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors SMCI, analyst targets favor ARM. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | SMCI | ARM | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +14.7% | +62.6% | ARM has more room |
| Target dispersion | +44.1% | +106.1% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 9 | 12 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor SMCI. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | SMCI | 48 vs 37 |
| Fundamentals | SMCIon balance | revenue growth 8.6% vs -13.5%; EPS growth 133.3% vs -13.8%; TTM ROE 25.1% vs 13%; gross margin 10.8% vs 95.3%; operating margin 7.1% vs 17.3% — SMCI takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | SMCI | Value 74 vs 24 |
| Technicals | SMCI | Price vs 50-day -8.1% vs -14.8%; vs 200-day -0.1% vs 1.8% |
| Risk Resilience | Even | Risk Resilience 36 vs 39 |
| Analyst expectations | ARM | Target upside 14.7% vs 62.6% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of SMCI and ARM and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The two are close enough that your objective, not the score, should decide.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 11 points.
- The leader's advantage has been widening. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on SMCI.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20SMCI lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 6 to 11 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- SMCI +11
- 48 vs 37
- 7 sessions ago
- SMCI +12
- 50 vs 38
- 30 sessions ago
- SMCI +6
- 60 vs 54
- 90 sessions ago
- SMCI +11
- 63 vs 52
The lead changed hands once in this window, most recently on Jun 22 when SMCI moved ahead of ARM.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
2 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
No signal that the other name lacks.
2 bullish / 3 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only ARM
- Beta Spike Warning — bearish, risk, long horizon
Both carry 5 more signals that do not separate them: Golden Cross Active, ATR Expansion - Breakout Mode, Keltner Channel Breakdown, RSI Oversold - Potential Bounce, MACD Bearish Crossover.
SMCI leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +9.55%, AIQ 0 points).
Price is up while the AIQ Score moved down 1 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price +2.5%, AIQ -1 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1ARM closes the Value gap — currently 50 points behind, the largest single contributor to SMCI's edge.
- 2ARM's Keltner Channel Breakdown resolves — a bearish volatility rule currently active against it.
- 3SMCI's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 2 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
SMCI leads on balance| Metric | SMCI | ARM |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 8.6% | -13.5% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 133.3% | -13.8% |
| Gross margin | 10.8% | 95.3% |
| Operating margin | 7.1% | 17.3% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 25.1% | 13% |
| Debt to equity | 0.46 | 0.06 |
Performance
ARM leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | SMCI | ARM |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -16.9% | -13.4% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -21.8% | -33.7% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 6.3% | -22% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 14.2% | 26% |
| Year to date | 10.9% | 102.2% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -39.7% | 31.7% |
Technicals
SMCI has the stronger structure| Metric | SMCI | ARM |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 27.4 | 21.1 |
| ADX (14) | 27.7 | 22.2 |
| Price vs 50-day | -8.1% | -14.8% |
| Price vs 200-day | -0.1% | 1.8% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 59.9% | 62.8% |
Risk
Split| Metric | SMCI | ARM |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.9 | 3.46 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.08 | 0.7 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.11 | 1.29 |
| Max drawdown | -62.7% | -49.7% |
| Current drawdown | -41% | -49.7% |
| Annualized volatility | 92.9% | 79.2% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -7.9% | -7.4% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, SMCI or ARM?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, SMCI is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 48 against ARM's 37. The edge comes from value and momentum. ARM is not without a case — it holds the better quality profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is SMCI or ARM the better buy right now?
SMCI carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Competitive — 4 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Competitive rating means the two are close enough that your objective, not the score, should decide.
Why does the AIQ Score favor SMCI over ARM?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. SMCI leads Value by 50 points; ARM leads Quality by 19 points; SMCI leads Momentum by 12 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, SMCI or ARM?
Analyst price targets imply +14.7% upside for SMCI and +62.6% for ARM, so the Street currently favors ARM. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors SMCI. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, SMCI or ARM?
SMCI is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. SMCI on the peer-relative Value factor, by 50 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, SMCI or ARM?
SMCI on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, SMCI or ARM?
SMCI on the Momentum factor, by 12 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, SMCI or ARM?
SMCI is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. SMCI carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is SMCI more profitable than ARM?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 10.8% vs 95.3%; operating margin 7.1% vs 17.3%; ttm roe 25.1% vs 13%. SMCI leads on one measure and ARM on two measures, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is SMCI's lead over ARM getting stronger or weaker?
SMCI lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 6 to 11 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has changed hands once in that window, most recently on 2026-06-22, when SMCI moved ahead of ARM.
What would change the SMCI vs ARM verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: ARM closes the Value gap — currently 50 points behind, the largest single contributor to SMCI's edge; ARM's Keltner Channel Breakdown resolves — a bearish volatility rule currently active against it; SMCI's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 2 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about SMCI and ARM?
SMCI: 2 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. ARM: 2 bullish / 3 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on SMCI is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On ARM it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare SMCI and ARM with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.