SMTC vs STM Stock Comparison
STM currently leads SMTC in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 39 vs 36. The clearest difference is risk resilience, while SMTC has the stronger quality profile.
What is the main difference between SMTC and STM?
STM leads the current stock comparison as STMicroelectronics N.V., with the clearest separation coming from risk resilience and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Semtech Corporation vs STMicroelectronics N.V.
STM leads
STM leads by 3 AIQ points, primarily on Risk Resilience and Value.
Fragile: 3 of 6 evidence groups support STM, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Semtech Corporation
STMicroelectronics N.V.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors STM over SMTC, 39 versus 36 as of Oct 21, 2026. STM's advantage is driven primarily by stronger risk resilience and value, while SMTC holds the stronger quality profile. STM also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor STM today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 3 points. STM lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 3 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Semtech Corporation and STMicroelectronics N.V. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare SMTC and STM against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Risk Resilience27 vs 51STM +24
- Quality68 vs 45SMTC +23
- Value26 vs 40STM +14
- Momentum15 vs 22STM +7
3 of 6 evidence groups favor STM. STM’s edge is concentrated in risk resilience and value; SMTC keeps a meaningful quality edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Momentum -1, not enough on its own to move the overall score.
New signals
- RSI Oversold - Potential Bounce — bullish, momentum, short horizon
Largest factor move: Risk Resilience +1
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 4 active signals are unchanged.
STM's lead widened by 1 AIQ point in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — SMTC and STM both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
STM (STMicroelectronics N.V.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by risk resilience and value.
SMTC (Semtech Corporation): the counter-case, on quality, fundamentals, technicals — but at materially higher volatility, 75.1% against 46%.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
STMSTM on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
SMTCSMTC on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
STMSTM on the peer-relative Value factor, by 14 points.
Momentum
STMSTM on the Momentum factor, by 7 points.
Lower downside
STMSTM on Risk Resilience, by 24 points.
Analyst upside
STMSTM on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | SMTC | STM | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +42.1% | +62.4% | STM has more room |
| Target dispersion | +74.5% | +51.9% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 17 | 8 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor STM. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | Even | 36 vs 39 |
| Fundamentals | SMTC | revenue growth 17.5% vs 12.7%; EPS growth 4.9% vs 5.3%; TTM ROE 25.3% vs 2.7%; gross margin 52% vs 34.3%; operating margin 12.7% vs 5.8% |
| Valuation | STM | Value 26 vs 40 |
| Technicals | SMTC | Price vs 50-day -9.8% vs -7.6%; vs 200-day 11.2% vs -7.3% |
| Risk Resilience | STM | Risk Resilience 27 vs 51 |
| Analyst expectations | STM | Target upside 42.1% vs 62.4% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of SMTC and STM and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 3 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on STM.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20STM lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 3 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- STM +3
- 36 vs 39
- 7 sessions ago
- STM +3
- 36 vs 39
- 30 sessions ago
- STM +1
- 50 vs 51
- 90 sessions ago
- STM +1
- 47 vs 48
The lead changed hands 4 times in this window, most recently on Oct 15 when STM moved ahead of SMTC.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
2 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only SMTC
- RSI Oversold - Potential Bounce — bullish, momentum, short horizon
1 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
No signal that the other name lacks.
Both carry 4 more signals that do not separate them: Golden Cross Active, ATR Expansion - Breakout Mode, Keltner Channel Breakdown, MACD Bearish Crossover.
STM leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +3.99%, AIQ 0 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +3.6%, AIQ +1 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1SMTC closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 24 points behind, the largest single contributor to STM's edge.
- 2SMTC's Keltner Channel Breakdown resolves — a bearish volatility rule currently active against it.
- 3STM's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
SMTC leads on balance| Metric | SMTC | STM |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 17.5% | 12.7% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 4.9% | 5.3% |
| Gross margin | 52% | 34.3% |
| Operating margin | 12.7% | 5.8% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 25.3% | 2.7% |
| Debt to equity | 0.7 | 0.23 |
Performance
SMTC leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | SMTC | STM |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -21.2% | -7.6% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -21.9% | -14.3% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -0.5% | -30.4% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 31.6% | 3.3% |
| Year to date | 84.8% | 76.5% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 98% | 56.8% |
Technicals
SMTC has the stronger structure| Metric | SMTC | STM |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 29.8 | 30.1 |
| ADX (14) | 22.6 | 22.8 |
| Price vs 50-day | -9.8% | -7.6% |
| Price vs 200-day | 11.2% | -7.3% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 75.1% | 46% |
Risk
STM is the more resilient| Metric | SMTC | STM |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.11 | 2.72 |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.24 | 0.98 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.98 | 1.37 |
| Max drawdown | -40.7% | -43.2% |
| Current drawdown | -30.9% | -42.7% |
| Annualized volatility | 78.1% | 60.6% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -8% | -5.6% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, SMTC or STM?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, STM is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 39 against SMTC's 36. The edge comes from risk resilience and value. SMTC is not without a case — it holds the better quality profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is SMTC or STM the better buy right now?
STM carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 3 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor STM over SMTC?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. STM leads Risk Resilience by 24 points; SMTC leads Quality by 23 points; STM leads Value by 14 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, SMTC or STM?
Analyst price targets imply +42.1% upside for SMTC and +62.4% for STM, so the Street currently favors STM. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, SMTC or STM?
STM is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. STM on the peer-relative Value factor, by 14 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, SMTC or STM?
SMTC on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, SMTC or STM?
STM on the Momentum factor, by 7 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, SMTC or STM?
STM is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. STM on Risk Resilience, by 24 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is SMTC more profitable than STM?
SMTC leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 52% vs 34.3%; operating margin 12.7% vs 5.8%; ttm roe 25.3% vs 2.7%.
Is STM's lead over SMTC getting stronger or weaker?
STM lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 3 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has changed hands 4 times in that window, most recently on 2026-10-15, when STM moved ahead of SMTC.
What would change the SMTC vs STM verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: SMTC closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 24 points behind, the largest single contributor to STM's edge; SMTC's Keltner Channel Breakdown resolves — a bearish volatility rule currently active against it; STM's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about SMTC and STM?
SMTC: 2 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. STM: 1 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on SMTC is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On STM it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare SMTC and STM with others
Continue your research
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How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.