SMTC vs TEL Stock Comparison
Semtech Corporation vs TE Connectivity plc
TEL leads
TEL leads by 12 AIQ points, primarily on Value and Risk Resilience, but the lead has narrowed from 24 points over 30 sessions. Wall Street currently favors SMTC on target upside.
Fragile: 3 of 6 evidence groups support TEL, its lead is narrowing, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Semtech Corporation
TE Connectivity plc
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors TEL over SMTC, 60 versus 48 as of Sep 5, 2026. TEL's advantage is driven primarily by stronger value and risk resilience, while SMTC holds the stronger momentum profile. TEL also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors SMTC. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor TEL today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. TEL lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 24 to 12 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Semtech Corporation and TE Connectivity plc across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Compare SMTC and TEL against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Value30%26 vs 67TEL +41
- Risk Resilience15%27 vs 63TEL +36
- Momentum25%63 vs 48SMTC +15
- Quality30%68 vs 63SMTC +5
3 of 6 evidence groups favor TEL. TEL’s edge is concentrated in value and risk resilience; SMTC keeps a meaningful momentum edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-04, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-03.
Largest factor move: Momentum +2
No new signals fired.
Largest factor move: Momentum -1
New signals
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
TEL's lead narrowed by 1 AIQ points in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — SMTC and TEL both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
TEL (TE Connectivity plc): the stronger current systematic profile, led by value and risk resilience.
SMTC (Semtech Corporation): the counter-case, on momentum, quality, fundamentals — but at materially higher volatility, 97.9% against 31.7%.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
TELTEL on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value at 30% each.
Growth
SMTCSMTC on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
TELTEL on the peer-relative Value factor, by 41 points.
Momentum
SMTCSMTC on the Momentum factor, by 15 points.
Lower downside
TELTEL on Risk Resilience, by 36 points.
Analyst upside
SMTCSMTC on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors TEL, analyst targets favor SMTC. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | SMTC | TEL | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +26.7% | +22% | SMTC has more room |
| Target dispersion | +106.7% | +29.5% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 14 | 7 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor TEL. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | TEL | 48 vs 60 |
| Fundamentals | SMTCon balance | revenue growth 17.5% vs 8.8%; EPS growth 4.9% vs -12%; TTM ROE 25.3% vs 23.2%; gross margin 52% vs 35.4%; operating margin 12.7% vs 19.1% — SMTC takes 4 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | TEL | Value 26 vs 67 |
| Technicals | SMTC | Price vs 50-day 11.3% vs 1.5%; vs 200-day 37.6% vs -3.5% |
| Risk Resilience | TEL | Risk Resilience 27 vs 63 |
| Analyst expectations | SMTC | Target upside 26.7% vs 22% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of SMTC and TEL and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is wide at 12 points. (supports the conclusion holding)
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader's advantage has been narrowing. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on TEL.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Apr 23 – Sep 4TEL lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 24 to 12 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- TEL +12
- 48 vs 60
- 7 sessions ago
- TEL +17
- 37 vs 54
- 30 sessions ago
- TEL +24
- 40 vs 64
- 90 sessions ago
- TEL +19
- 37 vs 56
The lead has not changed hands in this window.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
4 bullish / 0 bearish / 1 neutral
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (23.64%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
1 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (5.18%)
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
TEL leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +9.22%, AIQ 0 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved down over the latest session (price -0.36%, AIQ -1 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1SMTC closes the Value gap — currently 41 points behind, the largest single contributor to TEL's edge.
- 2SMTC's existing bullish trend signals translate into factor-score gains — the rules are already firing, but the scores have not yet followed.
- 3TEL's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4The narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 12 points over 30 sessions, and a further 12-point move would eliminate TEL's advantage entirely.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
SMTC leads on balance| Metric | SMTC | TEL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 17.5% | 8.8% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 4.9% | -12% |
| Gross margin | 52% | 35.4% |
| Operating margin | 12.7% | 19.1% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 25.3% | 23.2% |
| Debt to equity | 0.7 | 0.43 |
Performance
SMTC leads 5 of 6 windows| Metric | SMTC | TEL |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 12.7% | 3% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | 6.1% | -3.6% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -2.1% | -1.9% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 80.3% | 1.4% |
| Year to date | 100.7% | -8.3% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 155.3% | 1.3% |
Technicals
SMTC has the stronger structure| Metric | SMTC | TEL |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 46.2 | 40.7 |
| ADX (14) | 9.3 | 12.8 |
| Price vs 50-day | 11.3% | 1.5% |
| Price vs 200-day | 37.6% | -3.5% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 97.9% | 31.7% |
Risk
TEL is the more resilient| Metric | SMTC | TEL |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.07 | 1.56 |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.54 | 0.06 |
| Sortino ratio | 2.47 | 0.08 |
| Max drawdown | -40.7% | -21.4% |
| Current drawdown | -15.4% | -16.2% |
| Annualized volatility | 74.6% | 34.6% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -7.5% | -3.6% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, SMTC or TEL?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, TEL is the stronger of the two as of Sep 5, 2026, scoring 60 against SMTC's 48. The edge comes from value and risk resilience. SMTC is not without a case — it holds the better momentum profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is SMTC or TEL the better buy right now?
TEL carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 5, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor TEL over SMTC?
The composite weights Quality at 30%, Value at 30%, Momentum at 25% and Risk Resilience at 15%. TEL leads Value by 41 points; TEL leads Risk Resilience by 36 points; SMTC leads Momentum by 15 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, SMTC or TEL?
Analyst price targets imply +26.7% upside for SMTC and +22% for TEL, so the Street currently favors SMTC. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors TEL. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, SMTC or TEL?
TEL is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. TEL on the peer-relative Value factor, by 41 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, SMTC or TEL?
SMTC on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, SMTC or TEL?
SMTC on the Momentum factor, by 15 points. Momentum carries 25% of the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, SMTC or TEL?
TEL is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. TEL on Risk Resilience, by 36 points. The Risk Resilience factor weights 15% of the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is SMTC more profitable than TEL?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 52% vs 35.4%; operating margin 12.7% vs 19.1%; ttm roe 25.3% vs 23.2%. SMTC leads on two measures and TEL on one measure, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is TEL's lead over SMTC getting stronger or weaker?
TEL lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 24 to 12 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-04-23 and 2026-09-04. The lead has not changed hands in that window.
What would change the SMTC vs TEL verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: SMTC closes the Value gap — currently 41 points behind, the largest single contributor to TEL's edge; SMTC's existing bullish trend signals translate into factor-score gains — the rules are already firing, but the scores have not yet followed; TEL's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; the narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 12 points over 30 sessions, and a further 12-point move would eliminate TEL's advantage entirely.
What do the current signals say about SMTC and TEL?
SMTC: 4 bullish / 0 bearish / 1 neutral. TEL: 1 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on SMTC is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On TEL it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare SMTC and TEL with others
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality (30%), Value (30%), Momentum (25%) and Risk (15%). Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.