TREE vs UPST Stock Comparison
Compare TREE and UPST across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between TREE and UPST?
TREE leads the current stock comparison as LendingTree, Inc., with the clearest separation coming from quality and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
LendingTree, Inc. vs Upstart Holdings, Inc.
TREE leads
TREE leads by 23 AIQ points, primarily on Quality and Value, and the lead has widened from 19 points over 30 sessions.
Stable: 4 of 6 evidence groups support TREE, its lead is widening, and its current signal state is conflicted.
LendingTree, Inc.
Upstart Holdings, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors TREE over UPST, 56 versus 33 as of Sep 11, 2026. TREE's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality and value. TREE also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor TREE today, and the comparison is rated Stable on stability: the leader is throwing conflicting signals. TREE lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 19 to 23 points over 30 sessions.
Compare LendingTree, Inc. and Upstart Holdings, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare TREE and UPST against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Quality80 vs 38TREE +42
- Value71 vs 37TREE +34
- Risk Resilience30 vs 27Even
- Momentum25 vs 25Even
4 of 6 evidence groups favor TREE. TREE’s edge is concentrated in quality and value.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-10, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-09.
No factor moved materially.
No new signals fired.
Largest factor move: Momentum +1
No new signals fired.
TREE's lead was unchanged in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — TREE and UPST both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
TREE (LendingTree, Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality and value.
UPST (Upstart Holdings, Inc.): the counter-case, on technicals — but at materially higher volatility, 55.3% against 38%.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
TREETREE on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
UPSTUPST on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
TREETREE on the peer-relative Value factor, by 34 points.
Momentum
EvenThe two are level on Momentum.
Lower downside
TREETREE carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility.
Analyst upside
TREETREE on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | TREE | UPST | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +157.3% | +57.6% | TREE has more room |
| Target dispersion | +26.1% | +52.1% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Strong Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 2 | 7 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor TREE. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | TREE | 56 vs 33 |
| Fundamentals | TREEon balance | revenue growth -4.2% vs -16.5%; EPS growth -44.8% vs 3.5%; TTM ROE 69.6% vs 7.9%; gross margin 96.4% vs 74.4%; operating margin 8.3% vs 4.2% — TREE takes 4 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | TREE | Value 71 vs 37 |
| Technicals | UPST | Price vs 50-day -25% vs -14%; vs 200-day -38% vs -25.9% |
| Risk Resilience | Even | Risk Resilience 30 vs 27 |
| Analyst expectations | TREE | Target upside 157.3% vs 57.6% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of TREE and UPST and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion rests on a wide gap and broad agreement. It is unlikely to turn on a single session.
- The AIQ gap is wide at 23 points. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader's advantage has been widening. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on TREE.
How the comparison changed
119 daily snapshots · May 4 – Sep 10TREE lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 19 to 23 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- TREE +23
- 56 vs 33
- 7 sessions ago
- TREE +20
- 56 vs 36
- 30 sessions ago
- TREE +19
- 59 vs 40
- 90 sessions ago
- TREE +27
- 68 vs 41
The lead has not changed hands in this window.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
2 bullish / 3 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (21.31%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- RSI Oversold - Potential Bounce — bullish, momentum, short horizon
1 bullish / 4 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (13.89%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- BB Lower Band Breach — bullish, volatility, short horizon
TREE leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -0.26%, AIQ 0 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +1.95%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1UPST closes the Quality gap — currently 42 points behind, the largest single contributor to TREE's edge.
- 2UPST's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3TREE's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 2 bullish and 3 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
TREE leads on balance| Metric | TREE | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -4.2% | -16.5% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -44.8% | 3.5% |
| Gross margin | 96.4% | 74.4% |
| Operating margin | 8.3% | 4.2% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 69.6% | 7.9% |
| Debt to equity | 1.35 | 2.54 |
Performance
UPST leads 5 of 6 windows| Metric | TREE | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -3.3% | -10.9% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -15% | -13.7% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -26.2% | -17.2% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -33.7% | -8.6% |
| Year to date | -47.6% | -42.1% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -63.3% | -63.2% |
Technicals
UPST has the stronger structure| Metric | TREE | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 28.1 | 31.7 |
| ADX (14) | 43.8 | 14.1 |
| Price vs 50-day | -25% | -14% |
| Price vs 200-day | -38% | -25.9% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 38% | 55.3% |
Risk
Split| Metric | TREE | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.35 | 2.92 |
| Sharpe ratio | -1.19 | -1.25 |
| Sortino ratio | -1.55 | -1.99 |
| Max drawdown | -65.3% | -64.9% |
| Current drawdown | -64.8% | -63.6% |
| Annualized volatility | 67.5% | 66.4% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -6.3% | -7.3% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, TREE or UPST?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, TREE is the stronger of the two as of Sep 11, 2026, scoring 56 against UPST's 33. The edge comes from quality and value. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is TREE or UPST the better buy right now?
TREE carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 11, 2026, and the comparison is rated Stable — 4 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Stable rating means the gap is wide and the evidence is broad, so the conclusion is unlikely to turn on a single session.
Why does the AIQ Score favor TREE over UPST?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. TREE leads Quality by 42 points; TREE leads Value by 34 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, TREE or UPST?
Analyst price targets imply +157.3% upside for TREE and +57.6% for UPST, so the Street currently favors TREE. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, TREE or UPST?
TREE is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. TREE on the peer-relative Value factor, by 34 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, TREE or UPST?
UPST on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, TREE or UPST?
The two are level on Momentum. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, TREE or UPST?
TREE is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. TREE carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is TREE more profitable than UPST?
TREE leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 96.4% vs 74.4%; operating margin 8.3% vs 4.2%; ttm roe 69.6% vs 7.9%.
Is TREE's lead over UPST getting stronger or weaker?
TREE lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 19 to 23 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 119 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-05-04 and 2026-09-10. The lead has not changed hands in that window.
What would change the TREE vs UPST verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: UPST closes the Quality gap — currently 42 points behind, the largest single contributor to TREE's edge; UPST's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; TREE's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 2 bullish and 3 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about TREE and UPST?
TREE: 2 bullish / 3 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted. UPST: 1 bullish / 4 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on TREE is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On UPST it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare TREE and UPST with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.