TROX vs VALE Stock Comparison
Compare TROX and VALE across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between TROX and VALE?
VALE leads the current stock comparison as Vale S.A., with the clearest separation coming from momentum and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Tronox Holdings plc vs Vale S.A.
VALE leads
VALE leads by 22 AIQ points, primarily on Momentum and Quality, and the lead has widened from 9 points over 30 sessions. Wall Street currently favors TROX on target upside.
Competitive: 3 of 6 evidence groups support VALE, its lead is widening, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Tronox Holdings plc
Vale S.A.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors VALE over TROX, 56 versus 34 as of Sep 11, 2026. VALE's advantage is driven primarily by stronger momentum and quality, while TROX holds the stronger value profile. VALE also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors TROX. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor VALE today, and the comparison is rated Competitive on stability: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. VALE lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 9 to 22 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Tronox Holdings plc and Vale S.A. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare TROX and VALE against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum25 vs 75VALE +50
- Quality2 vs 42VALE +40
- Value65 vs 57TROX +8
- Risk Resilience49 vs 50Even
3 of 6 evidence groups favor VALE. VALE’s edge is concentrated in momentum and quality; TROX keeps a meaningful value edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-10, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-09.
Largest factor move: Risk Resilience +2
No new signals fired.
Largest factor move: Momentum -4
No new signals fired.
VALE's lead narrowed by 2 AIQ points in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — TROX and VALE both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
VALE (Vale S.A.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by momentum and quality.
TROX (Tronox Holdings plc): the counter-case, on value, valuation, analyst expectations — but at materially higher volatility, 39.4% against 32.9%.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
VALEVALE on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
VALEVALE on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
TROXTROX on the peer-relative Value factor, by 8 points.
Momentum
VALEVALE on the Momentum factor, by 50 points.
Lower downside
VALEVALE carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility.
Analyst upside
TROXTROX on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors VALE, analyst targets favor TROX. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | TROX | VALE | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +85.7% | +13.3% | TROX has more room |
| Target dispersion | +60.9% | +26.1% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Hold | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 6 | 6 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor VALE. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | VALE | 34 vs 56 |
| Fundamentals | VALEon balance | revenue growth 14.2% vs 13.3%; EPS growth -64.6% vs -27.3%; TTM ROE -40.4% vs 5.8%; gross margin 5.3% vs 34.2%; operating margin -3.5% vs 26.1% — VALE takes 4 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | TROX | Value 65 vs 57 |
| Technicals | VALE | Price vs 50-day -24.2% vs 3.6%; vs 200-day -30.9% vs 0.4% |
| Risk Resilience | Even | Risk Resilience 49 vs 50 |
| Analyst expectations | TROX | Target upside 85.7% vs 13.3% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of TROX and VALE and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The two are close enough that your objective, not the score, should decide.
- The AIQ gap is wide at 22 points. (supports the conclusion holding)
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader's advantage has been widening. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on VALE.
How the comparison changed
119 daily snapshots · May 4 – Sep 10VALE lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 9 to 22 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- VALE +22
- 34 vs 56
- 7 sessions ago
- VALE +24
- 33 vs 57
- 30 sessions ago
- VALE +9
- 36 vs 45
- 90 sessions ago
- VALE +13
- 33 vs 46
The lead has not changed hands in this window.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 4 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (15.97%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- Keltner Channel Breakdown — bearish, volatility, short horizon
2 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (3.56%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
VALE leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price is down while the AIQ Score moved up 1 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price -3.7%, AIQ +1 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved down over the latest session (price -0.33%, AIQ -1 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1TROX closes the Momentum gap — currently 50 points behind, the largest single contributor to VALE's edge.
- 2TROX's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3VALE's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 2 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
VALE leads on balance| Metric | TROX | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 14.2% | 13.3% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -64.6% | -27.3% |
| Gross margin | 5.3% | 34.2% |
| Operating margin | -3.5% | 26.1% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | -40.4% | 5.8% |
| Debt to equity | 2.9 | 0.58 |
Performance
VALE leads 6 of 6 windows| Metric | TROX | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -10.4% | -2.9% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -25.6% | 6% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -35.8% | 2.3% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -31.8% | -0.4% |
| Year to date | 10.1% | 17.3% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 2.8% | 46.2% |
Technicals
VALE has the stronger structure| Metric | TROX | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 15.2 | 65.3 |
| ADX (14) | 34.3 | 16.3 |
| Price vs 50-day | -24.2% | 3.6% |
| Price vs 200-day | -30.9% | 0.4% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 39.4% | 32.9% |
Risk
Split| Metric | TROX | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.02 | 1.13 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.28 | 1.24 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.57 | 1.78 |
| Max drawdown | -56.2% | -23.5% |
| Current drawdown | -56.2% | -14.3% |
| Annualized volatility | 78.7% | 32.9% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -6.1% | -3.6% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, TROX or VALE?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, VALE is the stronger of the two as of Sep 11, 2026, scoring 56 against TROX's 34. The edge comes from momentum and quality. TROX is not without a case — it holds the better value profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is TROX or VALE the better buy right now?
VALE carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 11, 2026, and the comparison is rated Competitive — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Competitive rating means the two are close enough that your objective, not the score, should decide.
Why does the AIQ Score favor VALE over TROX?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. VALE leads Momentum by 50 points; VALE leads Quality by 40 points; TROX leads Value by 8 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, TROX or VALE?
Analyst price targets imply +85.7% upside for TROX and +13.3% for VALE, so the Street currently favors TROX. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors VALE. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, TROX or VALE?
TROX is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. TROX on the peer-relative Value factor, by 8 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, TROX or VALE?
VALE on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, TROX or VALE?
VALE on the Momentum factor, by 50 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, TROX or VALE?
VALE is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. VALE carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is TROX more profitable than VALE?
VALE leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 5.3% vs 34.2%; operating margin -3.5% vs 26.1%; ttm roe -40.4% vs 5.8%.
Is VALE's lead over TROX getting stronger or weaker?
VALE lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 9 to 22 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 119 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-05-04 and 2026-09-10. The lead has not changed hands in that window.
What would change the TROX vs VALE verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: TROX closes the Momentum gap — currently 50 points behind, the largest single contributor to VALE's edge; TROX's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; VALE's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 2 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about TROX and VALE?
TROX: 1 bullish / 4 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted. VALE: 2 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on TROX is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On VALE it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare TROX and VALE with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.