UPS vs WAB Stock Comparison
UPS currently leads WAB in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 57 vs 48. The clearest difference is value, while WAB has the stronger quality profile.
What is the main difference between UPS and WAB?
UPS leads the current stock comparison as United Parcel Service, Inc., with the clearest separation coming from value and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
United Parcel Service, Inc. vs Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation
UPS leads
UPS leads by 9 AIQ points, primarily on Value and Momentum, having only recently taken the lead back from WAB.
Fragile: 3 of 6 evidence groups support UPS, the lead recently changed hands, and its current signal state is conflicted.
United Parcel Service, Inc.
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors UPS over WAB, 57 versus 48 as of Oct 21, 2026. UPS's advantage is driven primarily by stronger value and momentum, while WAB holds the stronger quality profile. UPS also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor UPS today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. UPS lead: Reversed — WAB led by 8 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; UPS now leads by 9.
Compare United Parcel Service, Inc. and Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare UPS and WAB against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Value69 vs 43UPS +26
- Momentum61 vs 42UPS +19
- Quality38 vs 48WAB +10
- Risk Resilience64 vs 66Even
3 of 6 evidence groups favor UPS. UPS’s edge is concentrated in value and momentum; WAB keeps a meaningful quality edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Momentum +2
New signals
- BB Upper Band Breach — bearish, volatility, short horizon
- RSI Overbought — bearish, momentum, short horizon
No factor moved materially.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 2 active signals are unchanged.
UPS's lead widened by 1 AIQ point in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — UPS and WAB both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
UPS (United Parcel Service, Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by value and momentum.
WAB (Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation): the counter-case, on quality, fundamentals, technicals.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
UPSUPS on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
WABWAB on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
UPSUPS on the peer-relative Value factor, by 26 points.
Momentum
UPSUPS on the Momentum factor, by 19 points.
Lower downside
WABWAB carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility.
Analyst upside
UPSUPS on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | UPS | WAB | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +19.5% | +16.5% | UPS has more room |
| Target dispersion | +47.9% | +11% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 12 | 4 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Dividend growth
| Dividend metric | UPS | WAB |
|---|---|---|
| 5Y dividend CAGR | 10.18% | 15.81% |
| 2020 regular DPS | $4.040 | $0.480 |
| 2025 regular DPS | $6.560 | $1.000 |
| Years increased | 5 | 4 |
| No cut in window | Yes | Yes |
| Cohort rank | #95 | #30 |
WAB grew its split-adjusted regular dividend faster over 2020–2025 — 15.81% a year against UPS's 10.18%. Neither company reduced its regular dividend in any year of the window.
Yield and payout ratio shown elsewhere on this page are current values, not part of the study window.
Split-adjusted regular dividends per share, 2020–2025, excluding special dividends. Research as of Sep 19, 2026.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor UPS. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | UPS | 57 vs 48 |
| Fundamentals | WABon balance | revenue growth 7.7% vs 7.8%; EPS growth -30.4% vs 9.9%; TTM ROE 29.1% vs 11.4%; gross margin 16.6% vs 34.3%; operating margin 7.3% vs 16.5% — WAB takes 3 of 4 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | UPS | Value 69 vs 43 |
| Technicals | WAB | Price vs 50-day 0.4% vs 0.3%; vs 200-day -5.9% vs 6.9% |
| Risk Resilience | Even | Risk Resilience 64 vs 66 |
| Analyst expectations | UPS | Target upside 19.5% vs 16.5% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of UPS and WAB and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 9 points.
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has swung materially session to session. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on UPS.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20UPS lead: Reversed — WAB led by 8 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; UPS now leads by 9.
- Today
- UPS +9
- 57 vs 48
- 7 sessions ago
- UPS +7
- 56 vs 49
- 30 sessions ago
- WAB +8
- 49 vs 57
- 90 sessions ago
- WAB +1
- 49 vs 50
The lead changed hands 3 times in this window, most recently on Sep 21 when WAB moved ahead of UPS.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 4 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only UPS
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (5.57%)
- BB Upper Band Breach — bearish, volatility, short horizon
- RSI Overbought — bearish, momentum, short horizon
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
1 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted
Only WAB
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (8.46%)
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
UPS leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +1.07%, AIQ +1 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +1.95%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1WAB closes the Value gap — currently 26 points behind, the largest single contributor to UPS's edge.
- 2WAB's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it.
- 3UPS's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 4 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
WAB leads on balance| Metric | UPS | WAB |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 7.7% | 7.8% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -30.4% | 9.9% |
| Gross margin | 16.6% | 34.3% |
| Operating margin | 7.3% | 16.5% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 29.1% | 11.4% |
| Debt to equity | 1.9 | 0.62 |
Performance
WAB leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | UPS | WAB |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 3.9% | -1.1% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | 2.8% | -2.2% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -15% | -2.3% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -7.3% | 10% |
| Year to date | -0.7% | 32.8% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 15% | 46.4% |
Technicals
WAB has the stronger structure| Metric | UPS | WAB |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 74.5 | 43.2 |
| ADX (14) | 33 | 15.7 |
| Price vs 50-day | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Price vs 200-day | -5.9% | 6.9% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 21.2% | 17.1% |
Risk
Split| Metric | UPS | WAB |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.82 | 0.95 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.45 | 1.44 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.58 | 2.46 |
| Max drawdown | -23.3% | -10.8% |
| Current drawdown | -17.9% | -7.3% |
| Annualized volatility | 31.1% | 25.9% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -3.4% | -2.1% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, UPS or WAB?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, UPS is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 57 against WAB's 48. The edge comes from value and momentum. WAB is not without a case — it holds the better quality profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is UPS or WAB the better buy right now?
UPS carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor UPS over WAB?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. UPS leads Value by 26 points; UPS leads Momentum by 19 points; WAB leads Quality by 10 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, UPS or WAB?
Analyst price targets imply +19.5% upside for UPS and +16.5% for WAB, so the Street currently favors UPS. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, UPS or WAB?
UPS is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. UPS on the peer-relative Value factor, by 26 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, UPS or WAB?
WAB on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, UPS or WAB?
UPS on the Momentum factor, by 19 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, UPS or WAB?
WAB is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. WAB carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is UPS more profitable than WAB?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 16.6% vs 34.3%; operating margin 7.3% vs 16.5%; ttm roe 29.1% vs 11.4%. UPS leads on one measure and WAB on two measures, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is UPS's lead over WAB getting stronger or weaker?
UPS lead: Reversed — WAB led by 8 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; UPS now leads by 9. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has changed hands 3 times in that window, most recently on 2026-09-21, when WAB moved ahead of UPS.
What would change the UPS vs WAB verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: WAB closes the Value gap — currently 26 points behind, the largest single contributor to UPS's edge; WAB's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it; UPS's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 4 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about UPS and WAB?
UPS: 1 bullish / 4 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. WAB: 1 bullish / 1 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on UPS is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On WAB it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare UPS and WAB with others
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How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.