UPS vs XPO Stock Comparison
UPS currently leads XPO in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 57 vs 41. The clearest difference is value.
What is the main difference between UPS and XPO?
UPS leads the current stock comparison as United Parcel Service, Inc., with the clearest separation coming from value and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
United Parcel Service, Inc. vs XPO Logistics, Inc.
UPS leads
UPS leads by 16 AIQ points, primarily on Value and Risk Resilience.
Competitive: 4 of 6 evidence groups support UPS, and its current signal state is conflicted.
United Parcel Service, Inc.
XPO Logistics, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors UPS over XPO, 57 versus 41 as of Oct 21, 2026. UPS's advantage is driven primarily by stronger value and risk resilience. UPS also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor UPS today, and the comparison is rated Competitive on stability: the leader is throwing conflicting signals. UPS lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 16 points over 30 sessions.
Compare United Parcel Service, Inc. and XPO Logistics, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare UPS and XPO against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Value69 vs 40UPS +29
- Risk Resilience64 vs 42UPS +22
- Quality38 vs 27UPS +11
- Momentum61 vs 58Even
4 of 6 evidence groups favor UPS. UPS’s edge is concentrated in value and risk resilience.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Momentum +2
New signals
- BB Upper Band Breach — bearish, volatility, short horizon
- RSI Overbought — bearish, momentum, short horizon
Largest factor move: Momentum +3
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 3 active signals are unchanged.
UPS's lead was unchanged in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — UPS and XPO both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
UPS (United Parcel Service, Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by value and risk resilience.
XPO (XPO Logistics, Inc.): the counter-case, on fundamentals.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
UPSUPS on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
XPOXPO on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
UPSUPS on the peer-relative Value factor, by 29 points.
Momentum
EvenThe two are level on Momentum.
Lower downside
UPSUPS on Risk Resilience, by 22 points.
Analyst upside
UPSUPS on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | UPS | XPO | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +19.5% | +18.4% | UPS has more room |
| Target dispersion | +47.9% | +73.9% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 12 | 14 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor UPS. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | UPS | 57 vs 41 |
| Fundamentals | XPOon balance | revenue growth 7.7% vs 12.4%; EPS growth -30.4% vs 60.5%; TTM ROE 29.1% vs 21.6%; gross margin 16.6% vs 12.8%; operating margin 7.3% vs 9.8% — XPO takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | UPS | Value 69 vs 40 |
| Technicals | Even | Price vs 50-day 0.4% vs 0.8%; vs 200-day -5.9% vs -4.3% |
| Risk Resilience | UPS | Risk Resilience 64 vs 42 |
| Analyst expectations | UPS | Target upside 19.5% vs 18.4% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of UPS and XPO and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The two are close enough that your objective, not the score, should decide.
- The AIQ gap is wide at 16 points. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on UPS.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20UPS lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 16 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- UPS +16
- 57 vs 41
- 7 sessions ago
- UPS +10
- 56 vs 46
- 30 sessions ago
- UPS +15
- 49 vs 34
- 90 sessions ago
- UPS +5
- 49 vs 44
The lead has not changed hands in this window.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 4 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only UPS
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- BB Upper Band Breach — bearish, volatility, short horizon
- RSI Overbought — bearish, momentum, short horizon
1 bullish / 2 bearish, conflicted
No signal that the other name lacks.
Both carry 3 more signals that do not separate them: Death Cross Active, Downtrend Structure Active, MACD Bullish Crossover.
UPS leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +1.07%, AIQ +1 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +0.92%, AIQ +1 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1XPO closes the Value gap — currently 29 points behind, the largest single contributor to UPS's edge.
- 2XPO's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3UPS's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 4 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
XPO leads on balance| Metric | UPS | XPO |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 7.7% | 12.4% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -30.4% | 60.5% |
| Gross margin | 16.6% | 12.8% |
| Operating margin | 7.3% | 9.8% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 29.1% | 21.6% |
| Debt to equity | 1.9 | 2.03 |
Performance
XPO leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | UPS | XPO |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 3.9% | 3.1% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | 2.8% | 5.1% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -15% | -12.6% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -7.3% | -17.2% |
| Year to date | -0.7% | 37.4% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 15% | 42.5% |
Technicals
Split| Metric | UPS | XPO |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 74.5 | 64.8 |
| ADX (14) | 33 | 15.2 |
| Price vs 50-day | 0.4% | 0.8% |
| Price vs 200-day | -5.9% | -4.3% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 21.2% | 26% |
Risk
UPS is the more resilient| Metric | UPS | XPO |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.82 | 1.19 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.45 | 0.98 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.58 | 1.64 |
| Max drawdown | -23.3% | -24.2% |
| Current drawdown | -17.9% | -18.2% |
| Annualized volatility | 31.1% | 42.4% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -3.4% | -3.9% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, UPS or XPO?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, UPS is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 57 against XPO's 41. The edge comes from value and risk resilience. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is UPS or XPO the better buy right now?
UPS carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Competitive — 4 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Competitive rating means the two are close enough that your objective, not the score, should decide.
Why does the AIQ Score favor UPS over XPO?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. UPS leads Value by 29 points; UPS leads Risk Resilience by 22 points; UPS leads Quality by 11 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, UPS or XPO?
Analyst price targets imply +19.5% upside for UPS and +18.4% for XPO, so the Street currently favors UPS. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, UPS or XPO?
UPS is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. UPS on the peer-relative Value factor, by 29 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, UPS or XPO?
XPO on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, UPS or XPO?
The two are level on Momentum. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, UPS or XPO?
UPS is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. UPS on Risk Resilience, by 22 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is UPS more profitable than XPO?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 16.6% vs 12.8%; operating margin 7.3% vs 9.8%; ttm roe 29.1% vs 21.6%. UPS leads on two measures and XPO on one measure, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is UPS's lead over XPO getting stronger or weaker?
UPS lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 16 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has not changed hands in that window.
What would change the UPS vs XPO verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: XPO closes the Value gap — currently 29 points behind, the largest single contributor to UPS's edge; XPO's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; UPS's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 4 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about UPS and XPO?
UPS: 1 bullish / 4 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. XPO: 1 bullish / 2 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on UPS is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On XPO it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare UPS and XPO with others
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How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.