PAGS vs XP Stock Comparison
PAGS currently leads XP in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 45 vs 43. The clearest difference is value, while XP has the stronger quality profile.
What is the main difference between PAGS and XP?
PAGS leads the current stock comparison as PagSeguro Digital Ltd., with the clearest separation coming from value and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
PagSeguro Digital Ltd. vs XP Inc.
PAGS leads
PAGS leads by 2 AIQ points, primarily on Value and Momentum, having only recently taken the lead back from XP. Wall Street currently favors XP on target upside.
Fragile: 2 of 6 evidence groups support PAGS, the lead recently changed hands, and its current signal state is conflicted.
PagSeguro Digital Ltd.
XP Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors PAGS over XP, 45 versus 43 as of Oct 31, 2026. PAGS's advantage is driven primarily by stronger value and momentum, while XP holds the stronger quality profile. PAGS also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors XP. 2 of 6 covered evidence groups favor PAGS today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 2 points. PAGS lead: Reversed — XP led by 1 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; PAGS now leads by 2.
Compare PagSeguro Digital Ltd. and XP Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare PAGS and XP against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Value75 vs 56PAGS +19
- Quality38 vs 52XP +14
- Momentum24 vs 18PAGS +6
- Risk Resilience35 vs 38Even
2 of 6 evidence groups favor PAGS. PAGS’s edge is concentrated in value and momentum; XP keeps a meaningful quality edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-28, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-27.
Largest factor move: Momentum -1, not enough on its own to move the overall score.
New signals
- BB Lower Band Breach — bullish, volatility, short horizon
- RSI Oversold - Potential Bounce — bullish, momentum, short horizon
Largest factor move: Momentum -1, not enough on its own to move the overall score.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 5 active signals are unchanged.
PAGS's lead was unchanged in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — PAGS and XP both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
PAGS (PagSeguro Digital Ltd.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by value and momentum.
XP (XP Inc.): the counter-case, on quality, fundamentals, analyst expectations — but at materially higher volatility, 127.8% against 88.7%.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
PAGSPAGS on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
XPXP on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
PAGSPAGS on the peer-relative Value factor, by 19 points.
Momentum
PAGSPAGS on the Momentum factor, by 6 points.
Lower downside
PAGSPAGS carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility.
Analyst upside
XPXP on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors PAGS, analyst targets favor XP. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | PAGS | XP | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +42.3% | +158.9% | XP has more room |
| Target dispersion | +18.6% | 0% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 2 | 1 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
2 of 6 covered evidence groups favor PAGS. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | Even | 45 vs 43 |
| Fundamentals | XPon balance | revenue growth 4% vs 8.2%; EPS growth 2.6% vs 12.5%; TTM ROE 14.6% vs 22.1%; gross margin 51.3% vs 66.7%; operating margin 37.8% vs 31.8% — XP takes 4 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | PAGS | Value 75 vs 56 |
| Technicals | PAGS | Price vs 50-day -18.5% vs -36.4%; vs 200-day -14.6% vs -16.4% |
| Risk Resilience | Even | Risk Resilience 35 vs 38 |
| Analyst expectations | XP | Target upside 42.3% vs 158.9% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of PAGS and XP and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 2 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Only 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on PAGS.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 29 – Oct 28PAGS lead: Reversed — XP led by 1 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; PAGS now leads by 2.
- Today
- PAGS +2
- 45 vs 43
- 7 sessions ago
- PAGS +2
- 57 vs 55
- 30 sessions ago
- XP +1
- 57 vs 58
- 90 sessions ago
- XP +8
- 50 vs 58
The lead changed hands 6 times in this window, most recently on Oct 5 when PAGS moved ahead of XP.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
2 bullish / 4 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted
Only PAGS
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (0.85%)
- BB Lower Band Breach — bullish, volatility, short horizon
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
2 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only XP
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (16.75%)
Both carry 4 more signals that do not separate them: ATR Expansion - Breakout Mode, Keltner Channel Breakdown, RSI Oversold - Potential Bounce, MACD Bearish Crossover.
PAGS leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -1.61%, AIQ 0 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -5.05%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1XP closes the Value gap — currently 19 points behind, the largest single contributor to PAGS's edge.
- 2XP's Keltner Channel Breakdown resolves — a bearish volatility rule currently active against it.
- 3PAGS's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 2 bullish and 4 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
XP leads on balance| Metric | PAGS | XP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 4% | 8.2% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 2.6% | 12.5% |
| Gross margin | 51.3% | 66.7% |
| Operating margin | 37.8% | 31.8% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 14.6% | 22.1% |
| Debt to equity | 3.1 | 3.74 |
Performance
XP leads 5 of 6 windows| Metric | PAGS | XP |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -16.9% | -13.4% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -8.4% | -20.8% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -17.2% | -6.5% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -17.3% | -12.5% |
| Year to date | -12.4% | -1.7% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -14.4% | -8.4% |
Technicals
PAGS has the stronger structure| Metric | PAGS | XP |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 28.3 | 22.9 |
| ADX (14) | 33.2 | 47.4 |
| Price vs 50-day | -18.5% | -36.4% |
| Price vs 200-day | -14.6% | -16.4% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 88.7% | 127.8% |
Risk
Split| Metric | PAGS | XP |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.45 | 1.81 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.11 | 0.25 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.14 | 0.26 |
| Max drawdown | -32.1% | -51.8% |
| Current drawdown | -32.1% | -50.6% |
| Annualized volatility | 54.1% | 74.5% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -4.7% | -4.8% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, PAGS or XP?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, PAGS is the stronger of the two as of Oct 31, 2026, scoring 45 against XP's 43. The edge comes from value and momentum. XP is not without a case — it holds the better quality profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is PAGS or XP the better buy right now?
PAGS carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 31, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 2 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor PAGS over XP?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. PAGS leads Value by 19 points; XP leads Quality by 14 points; PAGS leads Momentum by 6 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, PAGS or XP?
Analyst price targets imply +42.3% upside for PAGS and +158.9% for XP, so the Street currently favors XP. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors PAGS. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, PAGS or XP?
PAGS is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. PAGS on the peer-relative Value factor, by 19 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, PAGS or XP?
XP on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, PAGS or XP?
PAGS on the Momentum factor, by 6 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, PAGS or XP?
PAGS is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. PAGS carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is PAGS more profitable than XP?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 51.3% vs 66.7%; operating margin 37.8% vs 31.8%; ttm roe 14.6% vs 22.1%. PAGS leads on one measure and XP on two measures, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is PAGS's lead over XP getting stronger or weaker?
PAGS lead: Reversed — XP led by 1 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; PAGS now leads by 2. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-29 and 2026-10-28. The lead has changed hands 6 times in that window, most recently on 2026-10-05, when PAGS moved ahead of XP.
What would change the PAGS vs XP verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: XP closes the Value gap — currently 19 points behind, the largest single contributor to PAGS's edge; XP's Keltner Channel Breakdown resolves — a bearish volatility rule currently active against it; PAGS's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 2 bullish and 4 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about PAGS and XP?
PAGS: 2 bullish / 4 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted. XP: 2 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on PAGS is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On XP it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare PAGS and XP with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.