AAL vs XPO Stock Comparison
AAL currently leads XPO in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 45 vs 41. The clearest difference is value, while XPO has the stronger momentum profile.
What is the main difference between AAL and XPO?
AAL leads the current stock comparison as American Airlines Group Inc., with the clearest separation coming from value and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
American Airlines Group Inc. vs XPO Logistics, Inc.
AAL leads
AAL leads by 4 AIQ points, primarily on Value and Quality, but the lead has narrowed from 18 points over 30 sessions.
Fragile: 4 of 6 evidence groups support AAL, and its lead is narrowing.
American Airlines Group Inc.
XPO Logistics, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors AAL over XPO, 45 versus 41 as of Oct 21, 2026. AAL's advantage is driven primarily by stronger value and quality, while XPO holds the stronger momentum profile. AAL also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor AAL today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 4 points. AAL lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 18 to 4 points over 30 sessions.
Compare American Airlines Group Inc. and XPO Logistics, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price return from daily closes; distributions are not included.
Price return comparison
Growth of $10,000, price only
Split-adjusted closes only. Distributions are excluded, which understates the return of any fund or stock that pays them.
Compare AAL and XPO against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum26 vs 58XPO +32
- Value62 vs 40AAL +22
- Quality48 vs 27AAL +21
- Risk Resilience34 vs 42XPO +8
4 of 6 evidence groups favor AAL. AAL’s edge is concentrated in value and quality; XPO keeps a meaningful momentum edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Risk Resilience -2, not enough on its own to move the overall score.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 6 active signals are unchanged.
Largest factor move: Momentum +3
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 3 active signals are unchanged.
AAL's lead narrowed by 1 AIQ point in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — AAL and XPO both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
AAL (American Airlines Group Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by value and quality.
XPO (XPO Logistics, Inc.): the counter-case, on momentum, risk resilience, technicals.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
AALAAL on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
AALAAL on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
AALAAL on the peer-relative Value factor, by 22 points.
Momentum
XPOXPO on the Momentum factor, by 32 points.
Lower downside
XPOXPO on Risk Resilience, by 8 points.
Analyst upside
AALAAL on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | AAL | XPO | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +42.4% | +18.4% | AAL has more room |
| Target dispersion | +80.4% | +73.9% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 12 | 14 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor AAL. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | AAL | 45 vs 41 |
| Fundamentals | AALon balance | revenue growth 20.3% vs 12.4%; EPS growth 119% vs 60.5%; TTM ROE 8.3% vs 21.6%; gross margin 21% vs 12.8%; operating margin 1.7% vs 9.8% — AAL takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | AAL | Value 62 vs 40 |
| Technicals | XPO | Price vs 50-day -7.8% vs 0.8%; vs 200-day -11.3% vs -4.3% |
| Risk Resilience | XPO | Risk Resilience 34 vs 42 |
| Analyst expectations | AAL | Target upside 42.4% vs 18.4% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of AAL and XPO and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 4 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader's advantage has been narrowing. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Analyst targets on the leader are widely dispersed. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on AAL.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20AAL lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 18 to 4 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- AAL +4
- 45 vs 41
- 7 sessions ago
- XPO +1
- 45 vs 46
- 30 sessions ago
- AAL +18
- 52 vs 34
- 90 sessions ago
- AAL +3
- 47 vs 44
The lead changed hands 5 times in this window, most recently on Oct 19 when AAL moved ahead of XPO.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
0 bullish / 4 bearish / 2 neutral
Only AAL
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- ATR Expansion - Breakout Mode — neutral, volatility, short horizon (4.20%)
- Beta Spike Warning — bearish, risk, long horizon
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
1 bullish / 2 bearish, conflicted
Only XPO
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
Both carry 2 more signals that do not separate them: Death Cross Active, Downtrend Structure Active.
XPO is conflicted, so the timing case there is weaker than the score alone suggests.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +1.03%, AIQ 0 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +0.92%, AIQ +1 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1XPO closes the Value gap — currently 22 points behind, the largest single contributor to AAL's edge.
- 2XPO's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3AAL starts generating bearish momentum or trend signals.
- 4The narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 14 points over 30 sessions, and a further 4-point move would eliminate AAL's advantage entirely.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
AAL leads on balance| Metric | AAL | XPO |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 20.3% | 12.4% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 119% | 60.5% |
| Gross margin | 21% | 12.8% |
| Operating margin | 1.7% | 9.8% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 8.3% | 21.6% |
| Debt to equity | -9 | 2.03 |
Performance
XPO leads 5 of 6 windows| Metric | AAL | XPO |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -3.1% | 3.1% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -11% | 5.1% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -18.1% | -12.6% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 2.9% | -17.2% |
| Year to date | -21% | 37.4% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 1.9% | 42.5% |
Technicals
XPO has the stronger structure| Metric | AAL | XPO |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 31.7 | 64.8 |
| ADX (14) | 23.5 | 15.2 |
| Price vs 50-day | -7.8% | 0.8% |
| Price vs 200-day | -11.3% | -4.3% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 38.3% | 26% |
Risk
XPO is the more resilient| Metric | AAL | XPO |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.94 | 1.19 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.2 | 0.98 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.36 | 1.64 |
| Max drawdown | -37.4% | -24.2% |
| Current drawdown | -33.3% | -18.2% |
| Annualized volatility | 48.2% | 42.4% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -4.6% | -3.9% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, AAL or XPO?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, AAL is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 45 against XPO's 41. The edge comes from value and quality. XPO is not without a case — it holds the better momentum profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is AAL or XPO the better buy right now?
AAL carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 4 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 4 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor AAL over XPO?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. XPO leads Momentum by 32 points; AAL leads Value by 22 points; AAL leads Quality by 21 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, AAL or XPO?
Analyst price targets imply +42.4% upside for AAL and +18.4% for XPO, so the Street currently favors AAL. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, AAL or XPO?
AAL is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. AAL on the peer-relative Value factor, by 22 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, AAL or XPO?
AAL on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, AAL or XPO?
XPO on the Momentum factor, by 32 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, AAL or XPO?
XPO is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. XPO on Risk Resilience, by 8 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is AAL more profitable than XPO?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 21% vs 12.8%; operating margin 1.7% vs 9.8%; ttm roe 8.3% vs 21.6%. AAL leads on one measure and XPO on two measures, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is AAL's lead over XPO getting stronger or weaker?
AAL lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 18 to 4 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has changed hands 5 times in that window, most recently on 2026-10-19, when AAL moved ahead of XPO.
What would change the AAL vs XPO verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: XPO closes the Value gap — currently 22 points behind, the largest single contributor to AAL's edge; XPO's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; AAL starts generating bearish momentum or trend signals; the narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 14 points over 30 sessions, and a further 4-point move would eliminate AAL's advantage entirely.
What do the current signals say about AAL and XPO?
AAL: 0 bullish / 4 bearish / 2 neutral. XPO: 1 bullish / 2 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on AAL is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On XPO it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare AAL and XPO with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.