ETF Analysis
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) ETF Analysis
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) ETF analysis covering performance, holdings context, risk, drawdowns, volatility, momentum, dividends, valuation exposure, and the current AlgovestIQ assessment.
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) currently has an AIQ Score of 51/100, indicating a neutral setup. Momentum is the strongest factor at 73/100. Risk is the weakest current factor at 24/100. Performance, momentum, risk, distribution, and exposure evidence should be read together at the latest market-close snapshot.
TMF at a Glance
Crawlable current metrics from the latest market-close ETF snapshot.
| Metric | Current |
|---|---|
| Price | $29.36 |
| AIQ Score | 51/100 |
| Overall View | Neutral |
| Technical Analysis Consensus | Buy |
| Fund Size | $1.99B |
| Expense Ratio | 1.01% |
| Holdings Count | 14 |
| NAV | $29.81 |
| Asset Class | Fixed Income |
| Primary Exposure | Cash & Others (82.19%) |
| Issuer | Direxion |
| Domicile | US |
| Inception Date | Apr 16, 2009 |
| Distribution Yield | 4.69% |
| Beta | 7.22 |
| Average Volume | 5.68M |
| 52-week range | $24.52-$44.22 |
| RSI 14 | 78.79 |
| 50-Day SMA | $28.83 |
| 200-Day SMA | $34.02 |
| Risk Score | 24/100 |
| Momentum Score | 73/100 |
| Value Exposure Score | 36/100 |
TMF Long-Horizon ETF Performance
Trailing returns, growth of $10,000, drawdown history, and calendar-year returns from available daily closes.
| Period | Total return | Annualized | Max drawdown | Start date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | -31.97% | -31.99% | -42.58% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| 3Y | -28.56% | -10.60% | -62.84% | Oct 23, 2023 |
| 5Y | -89.00% | -35.74% | -92.13% | Oct 26, 2021 |
| 10Y | -89.00% | -35.74% | -92.13% | Oct 26, 2021 |
Growth of $10,000
Indexed to the first available close in this history window.
Drawdown History
Peak-to-trough decline from each prior high over the available window.
Calendar-Year Returns
Full-year returns where available, with the current calendar year shown as YTD.
TMFDirexion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Financial Services / Asset Management - Leveraged
Low Priority
In Line With Peers
Latest quote
- Momentum73
- Value36
- Quality62
- Risk resilience24
- Sentiment—
TMF ETF Analysis Summary
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) currently has an AIQ Score of 51/100, indicating a neutral setup. Momentum is the strongest factor at 73/100. Risk resilience is the weakest current factor at 24/100. Performance, exposure, distribution, momentum, and risk evidence should be read together at the latest market-close snapshot.
In a neutral regime, TMF has AIQ Score of 51/100 with Momentum base of 73/100 and fading Risk resilience at 24/100. Wait for component alignment before adding exposure.
Momentum (73/100) leads while Risk resilience (24/100) lags. This cross-factor spread creates entry timing uncertainty.
Financial Services · -1.41% ETF move · TMF classified in Asset Management - Leveraged.
Current Evidence
AlgovestIQ Evidence Summary
Current consensus, supporting evidence, recent changes, and what would strengthen or weaken the view.
Is TMF Bullish or Bearish Right Now?
TMF currently has a neutral overall setup. Momentum is the strongest factor at 73/100, while Risk Resilience is weakest at 24/100. The current evidence suggests a mixed rather than strongly bullish or bearish setup.
- - Quality is supportive at 62/100.
- - Momentum is constructive at 73/100.
- - Price is +1.84% above its 50-day SMA.
- - Technical consensus has more buy votes than sell votes (29 vs 14).
- - Value is the current constraint at 36/100.
- - Risk Resilience is weak at 24/100.
- - Price is -13.70% below its 200-day SMA.
Current Consensus
TMF's Technical Analysis Consensus is currently Buy, with 29 buy, 2 neutral, and 14 sell votes. TMF's 14-day RSI is 78.79, which places the ETF in an overbought momentum range. TMF's beta is 7.22, indicating greater market sensitivity than the broad market.
What Changed in TMF?
The largest recent change in TMF is Momentum moving up by 24.0 points over the available 7-day comparison window. Momentum remains the strongest visible factor.
What Would Change the TMF Outlook?
The current neutral outlook could improve if AIQ moves above 70, momentum recovers, risk resilience improves, and price confirms a stronger trend above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. It would weaken if AIQ falls below 40, price loses long-term moving-average support, distribution or liquidity context deteriorates, or risk evidence worsens.
AIQ > 70, RSI above 55, price above SMA-50/SMA-200, and positive market-context evidence.
AIQ below 40, RSI below 45, loss of SMA-200, negative revisions, or rising volatility and drawdown risk.
TMF Decision Framework
Public evidence layers, setup checks, and risk context for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF.
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) ETF Analysis
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF has an AIQ Score of 51/100 in a Neutral regime. Momentum is strongest at 73/100. Beta is 7.22, above market sensitivity. Review the supporting etf factors together before drawing a conclusion from any single score.
| Evidence Layer | Public Evidence |
|---|---|
| Regime Context | TMF is in a Neutral AIQ regime with score 51/100. |
| Signal Conflict | The primary conflict is that momentum leads at 73/100 while risk lags at 24/100. |
| Factor Evidence | Momentum 73/100 · Value 36/100 · Quality 62/100 · Risk 24/100 |
| Persistence | Current snapshot evidence is shown; historical persistence remains in AIQ Pro. |
Current Setup Checklist
Momentum is the strongest factor at 73/100.
Momentum is 73/100 and RSI (14) is 78.8.
TMF is in a Neutral regime at 51/100.
Risk factor is 24/100 with beta 7.22 and annual volatility 28.28%.
Current conflict: momentum leads at 73/100 while risk lags at 24/100.
TMF Research Cluster
ETF-specific paths for performance, risk, distributions, market context, data, comparisons, and news.
TMF ETF Analytics
TMF holdings context, yield, risk, valuation exposure, momentum, and AIQ evidence.
TMF Technical Analysis
TMF technical setup based on RSI, MACD, moving averages, AIQ Momentum, volume, trend, volatility, and pivots.
TMF ETF Market Context
Track TMF market context, news pressure, trend changes, income events, and current allocation evidence.
TMF Distribution Analysis
TMF distribution yield, annualized distributions, payment history, and income context.
TMF ETF Data
TMF available fund data, market metrics, technical readings, risk measures, and AIQ evidence.
TMF Risk Analysis
TMF volatility, beta, drawdown, Sharpe ratio, VaR, and downside resilience.
TMF ETF News
TMF ETF news, market tone, recent headlines, and catalyst context.
TMF vs Leveraged Peers
Current peer cohort: TMF · TQQQ · TSLL · UPRO · FNGD. Compare AIQ, factor scores, Sharpe ratio and 1-year volatility in one indexable view.
| Peer | AIQ | Value | Momentum | Risk | Sharpe | 1Y Volatility | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMF Current ETF | 51/100 | 36/100 | 73/100 | 24/100 | -1.44 | 28.28% | Current |
| TQQQ ProShares UltraPro QQQ (3x Nasdaq) | 40/100 | 33/100 | 26/100 | 0/100 | 0.63 | 59.75% | TMF vs TQQQ |
| TSLL Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X ETF | 41/100 | 24/100 | 51/100 | 0/100 | -0.38 | 90.36% | TMF vs TSLL |
| UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (3x) | 41/100 | 37/100 | 33/100 | 28/100 | 0.77 | 38.20% | TMF vs UPRO |
| FNGD MicroSectors FANG+ Index -3X Inverse ETN | 48/100 | 48/100 | 73/100 | 1/100 | -0.55 | 68.74% | TMF vs FNGD |
Peer cohort is resolved dynamically from the AlgovestIQ universe taxonomy and Compare relationship graph. Data as of Oct 23, 2026.
About the AIQ Score
Methodology for the current ETF evidence.
The AlgovestIQ AIQ Score combines multiple dimensions of ETF evidence, including momentum, valuation exposure, quality, risk resilience, sentiment context, and timing signals. It is a descriptive research score, not a guarantee of future performance or a personalized recommendation.
View AIQ methodologyFactor Diagnostics
A compact bridge from the AIQ score to the evidence tabs.
Valuation exposure across the fund's holdings.
Quality context inferred from fund exposure and available evidence.
Trend, momentum, volume, and timing confirmation.
Resilience, volatility, beta, drawdown, and tail risk.
News and event pressure around the setup.
Open the return calculator with ETF context while purchase price, shares, dates and fees remain user inputs.
AIQ Component Profile
Compare the five component scores on one consistent 0–100 scale.
Review earnings timing, revisions, news pressure, and prior event reactions in one place.
Open catalystsNo quarterly financial rows in this snapshot.
Checked Oct 25, 2026
Explore factor drivers, conflicts, persistence, and scenario sensitivity in the advanced workspace.
ETF Analytics Snapshot
Current ETF evidence uses fund profile, cost, size, distribution, momentum, and risk fields.
ETF pages use fund-native profile fields for cost, size, liquidity, holdings breadth, NAV, issuer, and launch date.
Market Confirmation
Technicals are summarized first, with the indicator library behind it.
Risk Alignment
Higher resilience is stronger; exposure metrics stay separate.
Continue Researching TMF
Open the detailed evidence pages and workflows behind the stock overview read.
Premium Feature
Full AIQ Analysis
AIQ Intelligence
AIQ Pro for TMF
Scenario Analysis
AIQ Scenario Builder
Portfolio Implication
Related Links
TMF ETF FAQ
What is TMF ETF price today?
TMF is currently shown at $29.36. Use the live quote with the 52-week range and AIQ context before comparing funds.
What is TMF's 52-week high and low?
TMF's 52-week range is $24.52 to $44.22 based on the latest completed market-close snapshot from Oct 23, 2026. A price near either extreme should be evaluated with volatility and trend evidence.
Does TMF pay a dividend?
TMF's current distribution yield is 4.69% based on the latest completed market-close snapshot from Oct 23, 2026. For ETFs, dividend yield should be compared with expense ratio, holdings, and risk.
What should investors compare before buying TMF?
Compare TMF's price trend, expense profile, yield, holdings exposure, volatility, and AIQ signal. ETF decisions should focus on portfolio fit as much as current momentum.