AAL vs ALK Stock Comparison
AAL currently leads ALK in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 45 vs 39. The clearest difference is quality.
What is the main difference between AAL and ALK?
AAL leads the current stock comparison as American Airlines Group Inc., with the clearest separation coming from quality and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
American Airlines Group Inc. vs Alaska Air Group, Inc.
AAL leads
AAL leads by 6 AIQ points, primarily on Quality, but the lead has narrowed from 9 points over 30 sessions. Wall Street currently favors ALK on target upside.
Fragile: 3 of 6 evidence groups support AAL, and its lead is narrowing.
American Airlines Group Inc.
Alaska Air Group, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors AAL over ALK, 45 versus 39 as of Oct 21, 2026. AAL's advantage is driven primarily by stronger quality. AAL also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors ALK. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor AAL today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. AAL lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 9 to 6 points over 30 sessions.
Compare American Airlines Group Inc. and Alaska Air Group, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price return from daily closes; distributions are not included.
Price return comparison
Growth of $10,000, price only
Split-adjusted closes only. Distributions are excluded, which understates the return of any fund or stock that pays them.
Compare AAL and ALK against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Quality48 vs 30AAL +18
- Risk Resilience34 vs 37Even
- Value62 vs 60Even
- Momentum26 vs 24Even
3 of 6 evidence groups favor AAL. AAL’s edge is concentrated in quality.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Risk Resilience -2, not enough on its own to move the overall score.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 6 active signals are unchanged.
No factor moved materially.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 8 active signals are unchanged.
AAL's lead was unchanged in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — AAL and ALK both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
AAL (American Airlines Group Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by quality.
ALK (Alaska Air Group, Inc.): the counter-case, on analyst expectations.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
AALAAL on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
AALAAL on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
EvenThe two are level on Value.
Momentum
EvenThe two are level on Momentum.
Lower downside
AALAAL carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility.
Analyst upside
ALKALK on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors AAL, analyst targets favor ALK. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | AAL | ALK | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +42.4% | +64% | ALK has more room |
| Target dispersion | +80.4% | +41.8% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 12 | 7 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor AAL. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | AAL | 45 vs 39 |
| Fundamentals | AALon balance | revenue growth 20.3% vs 23.2%; EPS growth 119% vs 58.6%; TTM ROE 8.3% vs -4.5%; gross margin 21% vs 94.6%; operating margin 1.7% vs -1.5% — AAL takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | Even | Value 62 vs 60 |
| Technicals | AAL | Price vs 50-day -7.8% vs -17.4%; vs 200-day -11.3% vs -22.9% |
| Risk Resilience | Even | Risk Resilience 34 vs 37 |
| Analyst expectations | ALK | Target upside 42.4% vs 64% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of AAL and ALK and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 6 points.
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader's advantage has been narrowing. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- Analyst targets on the leader are widely dispersed. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on AAL.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20AAL lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 9 to 6 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- AAL +6
- 45 vs 39
- 7 sessions ago
- AAL +6
- 45 vs 39
- 30 sessions ago
- AAL +9
- 52 vs 43
- 90 sessions ago
- AAL +8
- 47 vs 39
The lead changed hands 2 times in this window, most recently on Jul 28 when AAL moved ahead of ALK.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
0 bullish / 4 bearish / 2 neutral
Only AAL
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
1 bullish / 6 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only ALK
- Keltner Channel Breakdown — bearish, volatility, short horizon
- RSI Oversold - Potential Bounce — bullish, momentum, short horizon
- 52-Week Low Proximity — bearish, risk, long horizon (2.3%)
Both carry 5 more signals that do not separate them: Death Cross Active, ATR Expansion - Breakout Mode, Beta Spike Warning, Downtrend Structure Active, MACD Bearish Crossover.
ALK is conflicted, so the timing case there is weaker than the score alone suggests.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +1.03%, AIQ 0 points).
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -2.39%, AIQ 0 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1ALK closes the Quality gap — currently 18 points behind, the largest single contributor to AAL's edge.
- 2ALK's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3AAL starts generating bearish momentum or trend signals.
- 4The narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 3 points over 30 sessions, and a further 6-point move would eliminate AAL's advantage entirely.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
AAL leads on balance| Metric | AAL | ALK |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 20.3% | 23.2% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 119% | 58.6% |
| Gross margin | 21% | 94.6% |
| Operating margin | 1.7% | -1.5% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 8.3% | -4.5% |
| Debt to equity | -9 | 2.08 |
Performance
AAL leads 6 of 6 windows| Metric | AAL | ALK |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -3.1% | -9.1% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -11% | -18% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -18.1% | -22.5% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 2.9% | -17.1% |
| Year to date | -21% | -30.4% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 1.9% | -28.1% |
Technicals
AAL has the stronger structure| Metric | AAL | ALK |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 31.7 | 27.6 |
| ADX (14) | 23.5 | 25.9 |
| Price vs 50-day | -7.8% | -17.4% |
| Price vs 200-day | -11.3% | -22.9% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 38.3% | 39.1% |
Risk
Split| Metric | AAL | ALK |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.94 | 2.29 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.2 | -0.44 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.36 | -0.8 |
| Max drawdown | -37.4% | -43.6% |
| Current drawdown | -33.3% | -42.9% |
| Annualized volatility | 48.2% | 51.9% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -4.6% | -5.3% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, AAL or ALK?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, AAL is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 45 against ALK's 39. The edge comes from quality. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is AAL or ALK the better buy right now?
AAL carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor AAL over ALK?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. AAL leads Quality by 18 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, AAL or ALK?
Analyst price targets imply +42.4% upside for AAL and +64% for ALK, so the Street currently favors ALK. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors AAL. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, AAL or ALK?
Neither name separates on the peer-relative Value factor. The two are level on Value. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, AAL or ALK?
AAL on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, AAL or ALK?
The two are level on Momentum. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, AAL or ALK?
AAL is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. AAL carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is AAL more profitable than ALK?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 21% vs 94.6%; operating margin 1.7% vs -1.5%; ttm roe 8.3% vs -4.5%. AAL leads on two measures and ALK on one measure, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is AAL's lead over ALK getting stronger or weaker?
AAL lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 9 to 6 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has changed hands 2 times in that window, most recently on 2026-07-28, when AAL moved ahead of ALK.
What would change the AAL vs ALK verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: ALK closes the Quality gap — currently 18 points behind, the largest single contributor to AAL's edge; ALK's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; AAL starts generating bearish momentum or trend signals; the narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 3 points over 30 sessions, and a further 6-point move would eliminate AAL's advantage entirely.
What do the current signals say about AAL and ALK?
AAL: 0 bullish / 4 bearish / 2 neutral. ALK: 1 bullish / 6 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on AAL is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On ALK it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare AAL and ALK with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.