CAKE vs CMG Stock Comparison
Compare CAKE and CMG across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between CAKE and CMG?
CAKE leads the current stock comparison as The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated, with the clearest separation coming from value and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated vs Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
CAKE leads
CAKE leads by 2 AIQ points, primarily on Value and Quality, but the lead has narrowed from 9 points over 30 sessions. Wall Street currently favors CMG on target upside.
Fragile: 2 of 6 evidence groups support CAKE, its lead is narrowing, and its current signal state is conflicted.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors CAKE over CMG, 48 versus 46 as of Sep 11, 2026. CAKE's advantage is driven primarily by stronger value and quality, while CMG holds the stronger momentum profile. CAKE also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors CMG. 2 of 6 covered evidence groups favor CAKE today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 2 points. CAKE lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 9 to 2 points over 30 sessions.
Compare The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated and Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare CAKE and CMG against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum48 vs 65CMG +17
- Value38 vs 25CAKE +13
- Quality60 vs 51CAKE +9
- Risk Resilience41 vs 46CMG +5
2 of 6 evidence groups favor CAKE. CAKE’s edge is concentrated in value and quality; CMG keeps a meaningful momentum edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-10, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-09.
Largest factor move: Momentum -5
New signals
- BB Lower Band Breach — bullish, volatility, short horizon
- Keltner Channel Breakdown — bearish, volatility, short horizon
Largest factor move: Momentum -3
No new signals fired.
CAKE's lead was unchanged in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — CAKE and CMG both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
CAKE (The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated): the stronger current systematic profile, led by value and quality.
CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.): the counter-case, on momentum, risk resilience, fundamentals.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
CAKECAKE on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
CMGCMG on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
CAKECAKE on the peer-relative Value factor, by 13 points.
Momentum
CMGCMG on the Momentum factor, by 17 points.
Lower downside
CMGCMG on Risk Resilience, by 5 points.
Analyst upside
CMGCMG on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors CAKE, analyst targets favor CMG. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | CAKE | CMG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | -23.3% | +15.6% | CMG has more room |
| Target dispersion | +63.4% | +31.1% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 11 | 11 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
2 of 6 covered evidence groups favor CAKE. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | Even | 48 vs 46 |
| Fundamentals | CMGon balance | revenue growth 5.2% vs 8.4%; EPS growth 38.7% vs 39.1%; TTM ROE 38.8% vs 53.3%; gross margin 46.4% vs 24.1%; operating margin 5.3% vs 15.2% — CMG takes 3 of 4 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | CAKE | Value 38 vs 25 |
| Technicals | CAKE | Price vs 50-day 4.2% vs 3.3%; vs 200-day 45.5% vs 3.4% |
| Risk Resilience | CMG | Risk Resilience 41 vs 46 |
| Analyst expectations | CMG | Target upside -23.3% vs 15.6% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of CAKE and CMG and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 2 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Only 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader's advantage has been narrowing. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Analyst targets on the leader are widely dispersed. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on CAKE.
How the comparison changed
119 daily snapshots · May 4 – Sep 10CAKE lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 9 to 2 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- CAKE +2
- 48 vs 46
- 7 sessions ago
- Level
- 49 vs 49
- 30 sessions ago
- CAKE +9
- 51 vs 42
- 90 sessions ago
- CAKE +9
- 55 vs 46
The lead has not changed hands in this window.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
4 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (41.76%)
- BB Lower Band Breach — bullish, volatility, short horizon
- Keltner Channel Breakdown — bearish, volatility, short horizon
3 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (0.32%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
CAKE leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price is up while the AIQ Score moved down 1 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price +1.52%, AIQ -1 points).
Price is up while the AIQ Score moved down 1 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price +0.19%, AIQ -1 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1CMG closes the Value gap — currently 13 points behind, the largest single contributor to CAKE's edge.
- 2CMG's Bollinger Band Squeeze turns directional — it is neutral today and would confirm a change in trend.
- 3CAKE's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 4 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once.
- 4The narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 7 points over 30 sessions, and a further 2-point move would eliminate CAKE's advantage entirely.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
CMG leads on balance| Metric | CAKE | CMG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 5.2% | 8.4% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 38.7% | 39.1% |
| Gross margin | 46.4% | 24.1% |
| Operating margin | 5.3% | 15.2% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 38.8% | 53.3% |
| Debt to equity | 4.01 | 2.46 |
Performance
CAKE leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | CAKE | CMG |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -6.8% | -6.2% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -13.8% | 10.7% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 43.2% | 18.8% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 66.9% | 6.7% |
| Year to date | 100.4% | -2.4% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 68.3% | -8.9% |
Technicals
CAKE has the stronger structure| Metric | CAKE | CMG |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 41.2 | 55 |
| ADX (14) | 34 | 20.3 |
| Price vs 50-day | 4.2% | 3.3% |
| Price vs 200-day | 45.5% | 3.4% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 41.4% | 33.4% |
Risk
CMG is the more resilient| Metric | CAKE | CMG |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.44 | 0.71 |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.49 | -0.09 |
| Sortino ratio | 2.5 | -0.12 |
| Max drawdown | -27% | -33.5% |
| Current drawdown | -13.8% | -14.7% |
| Annualized volatility | 38.5% | 41.9% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -3.2% | -3.8% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, CAKE or CMG?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, CAKE is the stronger of the two as of Sep 11, 2026, scoring 48 against CMG's 46. The edge comes from value and quality. CMG is not without a case — it holds the better momentum profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is CAKE or CMG the better buy right now?
CAKE carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 11, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 2 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor CAKE over CMG?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. CMG leads Momentum by 17 points; CAKE leads Value by 13 points; CAKE leads Quality by 9 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, CAKE or CMG?
Analyst price targets imply -23.3% upside for CAKE and +15.6% for CMG, so the Street currently favors CMG. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors CAKE. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, CAKE or CMG?
CAKE is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. CAKE on the peer-relative Value factor, by 13 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, CAKE or CMG?
CMG on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, CAKE or CMG?
CMG on the Momentum factor, by 17 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, CAKE or CMG?
CMG is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. CMG on Risk Resilience, by 5 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is CAKE more profitable than CMG?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 46.4% vs 24.1%; operating margin 5.3% vs 15.2%; ttm roe 38.8% vs 53.3%. CAKE leads on one measure and CMG on two measures, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is CAKE's lead over CMG getting stronger or weaker?
CAKE lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 9 to 2 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 119 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-05-04 and 2026-09-10. The lead has not changed hands in that window.
What would change the CAKE vs CMG verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: CMG closes the Value gap — currently 13 points behind, the largest single contributor to CAKE's edge; CMG's Bollinger Band Squeeze turns directional — it is neutral today and would confirm a change in trend; CAKE's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 4 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once; the narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 7 points over 30 sessions, and a further 2-point move would eliminate CAKE's advantage entirely.
What do the current signals say about CAKE and CMG?
CAKE: 4 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. CMG: 3 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on CAKE is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On CMG it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare CAKE and CMG with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.