NVR vs PHM Stock Comparison
PHM currently leads NVR in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 53 vs 51. The clearest difference is value, while NVR has the stronger quality profile.
What is the main difference between NVR and PHM?
PHM leads the current stock comparison as PulteGroup, Inc., with the clearest separation coming from value and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
NVR, Inc. vs PulteGroup, Inc.
PHM leads
PHM leads by 2 AIQ points, primarily on Value, having only recently taken the lead back from NVR.
Fragile: 2 of 6 evidence groups support PHM, the lead recently changed hands, and its current signal state is conflicted.
NVR, Inc.
PulteGroup, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors PHM over NVR, 53 versus 51 as of Oct 21, 2026. PHM's advantage is driven primarily by stronger value, while NVR holds the stronger quality profile. PHM also shows the weaker technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 2 of 6 covered evidence groups favor PHM today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 2 points. PHM lead: Reversed — NVR led by 2 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; PHM now leads by 2.
Compare NVR, Inc. and PulteGroup, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Total return with distributions reinvested, from daily closes.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000, distributions reinvested
Split-adjusted closes; each distribution is reinvested at the close on its ex-dividend date. Taxes and trading costs are not modeled.
Compare NVR and PHM against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Value32 vs 56PHM +24
- Quality66 vs 53NVR +13
- Risk Resilience73 vs 70Even
- Momentum42 vs 40Even
2 of 6 evidence groups favor PHM. PHM’s edge is concentrated in value; NVR keeps a meaningful quality edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-20, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-19.
Largest factor move: Momentum +31
New signals
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
Largest factor move: Momentum +11
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 3 active signals are unchanged.
PHM's lead narrowed by 5 AIQ points in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — NVR and PHM both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
PHM (PulteGroup, Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by value.
NVR (NVR, Inc.): the counter-case, on quality.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
PHMPHM on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
PHMPHM on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
PHMPHM on the peer-relative Value factor, by 24 points.
Momentum
EvenThe two are level on Momentum.
Lower downside
NVRNVR carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility.
Analyst upside
PHMPHM on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | NVR | PHM | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +14.5% | +23.2% | PHM has more room |
| Target dispersion | +35.3% | +40.3% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Hold | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 3 | 11 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
2 of 6 covered evidence groups favor PHM. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | Even | 51 vs 53 |
| Fundamentals | Even | revenue growth 23.7% vs 16.9%; EPS growth 22.6% vs 35.9%; TTM ROE 31% vs 14.7%; gross margin 22.2% vs 24.5%; operating margin 14.9% vs 14.6% |
| Valuation | PHM | Value 32 vs 56 |
| Technicals | Even | Price vs 50-day -4.6% vs -6.4%; vs 200-day -9.4% vs -7.8% |
| Risk Resilience | Even | Risk Resilience 73 vs 70 |
| Analyst expectations | PHM | Target upside 14.5% vs 23.2% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of NVR and PHM and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 2 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Only 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on PHM.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 21 – Oct 20PHM lead: Reversed — NVR led by 2 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; PHM now leads by 2.
- Today
- PHM +2
- 51 vs 53
- 7 sessions ago
- PHM +7
- 43 vs 50
- 30 sessions ago
- NVR +2
- 56 vs 54
- 90 sessions ago
- PHM +3
- 53 vs 56
The lead changed hands 6 times in this window, most recently on Sep 22 when NVR moved ahead of PHM.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
NVR and PHM carry the same 3 signals, so the signals do not separate them: Death Cross Active, Downtrend Structure Active, MACD Bullish Crossover.
PHM leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price is down while the AIQ Score moved up 8 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price -1.3%, AIQ +8 points).
Price is down while the AIQ Score moved up 3 points over the same session — price and model disagree (price -1.43%, AIQ +3 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1NVR closes the Value gap — currently 24 points behind, the largest single contributor to PHM's edge.
- 2NVR's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3PHM's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
Split| Metric | NVR | PHM |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 23.7% | 16.9% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 22.6% | 35.9% |
| Gross margin | 22.2% | 24.5% |
| Operating margin | 14.9% | 14.6% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 31% | 14.7% |
| Debt to equity | 0.31 | 0.18 |
Performance
Split across windows| Metric | NVR | PHM |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 3.1% | 2.6% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -5.7% | -6.3% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -5.9% | -9.6% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -13.8% | -11% |
| Year to date | -18% | -2.3% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -21.4% | -7.5% |
Technicals
Split| Metric | NVR | PHM |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 43.1 | 47 |
| ADX (14) | 13.3 | 18.3 |
| Price vs 50-day | -4.6% | -6.4% |
| Price vs 200-day | -9.4% | -7.8% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 25.5% | 29.5% |
Risk
Split| Metric | NVR | PHM |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.53 | 0.95 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.9 | -0.21 |
| Sortino ratio | -1.46 | -0.41 |
| Max drawdown | -31.3% | -23.3% |
| Current drawdown | -26.2% | -19.7% |
| Annualized volatility | 27.5% | 32.8% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -2.5% | -3.1% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, NVR or PHM?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, PHM is the stronger of the two as of Oct 21, 2026, scoring 53 against NVR's 51. The edge comes from value. NVR is not without a case — it holds the better quality profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is NVR or PHM the better buy right now?
PHM carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 21, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 2 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 2 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor PHM over NVR?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. PHM leads Value by 24 points; NVR leads Quality by 13 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, NVR or PHM?
Analyst price targets imply +14.5% upside for NVR and +23.2% for PHM, so the Street currently favors PHM. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, NVR or PHM?
PHM is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. PHM on the peer-relative Value factor, by 24 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, NVR or PHM?
PHM on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, NVR or PHM?
The two are level on Momentum. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, NVR or PHM?
NVR is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. NVR carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is NVR more profitable than PHM?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 22.2% vs 24.5%; operating margin 14.9% vs 14.6%; ttm roe 31% vs 14.7%. Each name leads on one measure, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is PHM's lead over NVR getting stronger or weaker?
PHM lead: Reversed — NVR led by 2 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; PHM now leads by 2. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-21 and 2026-10-20. The lead has changed hands 6 times in that window, most recently on 2026-09-22, when NVR moved ahead of PHM.
What would change the NVR vs PHM verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: NVR closes the Value gap — currently 24 points behind, the largest single contributor to PHM's edge; NVR's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; PHM's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about NVR and PHM?
NVR: 1 bullish / 2 bearish, conflicted. PHM: 1 bullish / 2 bearish, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on NVR is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On PHM it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare NVR and PHM with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.