ONB vs OZK Stock Comparison
Old National Bancorp vs Bank OZK
OZK leads
OZK leads by 8 AIQ points, primarily on Risk Resilience and Quality.
Stable: 5 of 6 evidence groups support OZK, and its signal state is cleanly positive.
Old National Bancorp
Bank OZK
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors OZK over ONB, 61 versus 53 as of Sep 5, 2026. OZK's advantage is driven primarily by stronger risk resilience and quality. OZK also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 5 of 6 covered evidence groups favor OZK today, and the comparison is rated Stable on stability. OZK lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 8 points over 30 sessions. OZK leads on all four AIQ factor dimensions. Value is itself one of those four, so a sweep is not explained by valuation alone — it deserves additional scrutiny for unmodeled catalysts, expectations or event risk.
Compare Old National Bancorp and Bank OZK across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Compare ONB and OZK against another ticker
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AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Risk Resilience15%63 vs 78OZK +15
- Quality30%56 vs 65OZK +9
- Momentum25%35 vs 43OZK +8
- Value30%59 vs 65OZK +6
5 of 6 evidence groups favor OZK. OZK’s edge is concentrated in risk resilience and quality.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-04, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-03.
Largest factor move: Momentum +3
No new signals fired.
Largest factor move: Momentum +9
New signals
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
OZK's lead widened by 1 AIQ points in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — ONB and OZK both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
OZK (Bank OZK): the stronger current systematic profile, led by risk resilience and quality.
ONB (Old National Bancorp): the counter-case, on technicals.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
OZKOZK on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value at 30% each.
Growth
ONBONB on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
OZKOZK on the peer-relative Value factor, by 6 points.
Momentum
OZKOZK on the Momentum factor, by 8 points.
Lower downside
OZKOZK on Risk Resilience, by 15 points.
Analyst upside
OZKOZK on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | ONB | OZK | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +9.7% | +11.7% | OZK has more room |
| Target dispersion | +24.5% | +16% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Hold | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 6 | 3 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
5 of 6 covered evidence groups favor OZK. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | OZK | 53 vs 61 |
| Fundamentals | OZKon balance | revenue growth 0.5% vs 1.7%; EPS growth 11.7% vs 3.5%; TTM ROE 10.5% vs 11.2%; gross margin 66.8% vs 56%; operating margin 28.7% vs 32.3% — OZK takes 3 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | OZK | Value 59 vs 65 |
| Technicals | ONB | Price vs 50-day -1.1% vs -0.7%; vs 200-day 8% vs 4.3% |
| Risk Resilience | OZK | Risk Resilience 63 vs 78 |
| Analyst expectations | OZK | Target upside 9.7% vs 11.7% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of ONB and OZK and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion rests on a wide gap and broad agreement. It is unlikely to turn on a single session.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 8 points.
- 5 of 6 covered evidence groups point the same way. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader's signal state is cleanly positive. (supports the conclusion holding)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on OZK.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Apr 23 – Sep 4OZK lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 8 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- OZK +8
- 53 vs 61
- 7 sessions ago
- OZK +7
- 52 vs 59
- 30 sessions ago
- OZK +9
- 61 vs 70
- 90 sessions ago
- OZK +5
- 63 vs 68
The lead changed hands once in this window, most recently on Jul 7 when OZK moved ahead of ONB.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (9.20%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
2 bullish / 0 bearish / 1 neutral
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (4.96%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
ONB is conflicted, so the timing case there is weaker than the score alone suggests.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +0.23%, AIQ +1 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved up over the latest session (price +0.52%, AIQ +2 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1ONB closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 15 points behind, the largest single contributor to OZK's edge.
- 2ONB's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it.
- 3OZK's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
OZK leads on balance| Metric | ONB | OZK |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 0.5% | 1.7% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 11.7% | 3.5% |
| Gross margin | 66.8% | 56% |
| Operating margin | 28.7% | 32.3% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 10.5% | 11.2% |
| Debt to equity | 0.98 | 0.11 |
Performance
ONB leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | ONB | OZK |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 0.7% | 2.1% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -2% | -1.9% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 8.7% | 1.7% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 16.7% | 11.8% |
| Year to date | 16.7% | 9.6% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 14.4% | -4.2% |
Technicals
ONB has the stronger structure| Metric | ONB | OZK |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 33.5 | 43.9 |
| ADX (14) | 21.1 | 18.1 |
| Price vs 50-day | -1.1% | -0.7% |
| Price vs 200-day | 8% | 4.3% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 17% | 18% |
Risk
OZK is the more resilient| Metric | ONB | OZK |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.8 | 0.65 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.43 | -0.24 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.57 | -0.32 |
| Max drawdown | -18.2% | -19.7% |
| Current drawdown | -4.6% | -5.1% |
| Annualized volatility | 26.3% | 24% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -2.6% | -2.4% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, ONB or OZK?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, OZK is the stronger of the two as of Sep 5, 2026, scoring 61 against ONB's 53. The edge comes from risk resilience and quality. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is ONB or OZK the better buy right now?
OZK carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 5, 2026, and the comparison is rated Stable — 5 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Stable rating means the gap is wide and the evidence is broad, so the conclusion is unlikely to turn on a single session.
Why does the AIQ Score favor OZK over ONB?
The composite weights Quality at 30%, Value at 30%, Momentum at 25% and Risk Resilience at 15%. OZK leads Risk Resilience by 15 points; OZK leads Quality by 9 points; OZK leads Momentum by 8 points. OZK leads on all four AIQ factor dimensions. Value is itself one of those four, so the sweep is not explained by ONB simply being cheaper — it warrants extra scrutiny for unmodeled catalysts, forward expectations or event risk the factors do not capture.
Which has more analyst upside, ONB or OZK?
Analyst price targets imply +9.7% upside for ONB and +11.7% for OZK, so the Street currently favors OZK. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, ONB or OZK?
OZK is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. OZK on the peer-relative Value factor, by 6 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, ONB or OZK?
ONB on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, ONB or OZK?
OZK on the Momentum factor, by 8 points. Momentum carries 25% of the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, ONB or OZK?
OZK is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. OZK on Risk Resilience, by 15 points. The Risk Resilience factor weights 15% of the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is ONB more profitable than OZK?
The profitability evidence is mixed: gross margin 66.8% vs 56%; operating margin 28.7% vs 32.3%; ttm roe 10.5% vs 11.2%. ONB leads on one measure and OZK on two measures, and there is no single profitability composite that resolves the split — which of the two reads as "more profitable" depends on whether you weight pricing power or operating leverage.
Is OZK's lead over ONB getting stronger or weaker?
OZK lead: Stable — the AIQ differential has held near 8 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-04-23 and 2026-09-04. The lead has changed hands once in that window, most recently on 2026-07-07, when OZK moved ahead of ONB.
What would change the ONB vs OZK verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: ONB closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 15 points behind, the largest single contributor to OZK's edge; ONB's MACD Bearish Crossover resolves — a bearish momentum rule currently active against it; OZK's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict; a regime shift changes factor weighting — the composite weights Quality and Value at 30% each, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about ONB and OZK?
ONB: 1 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. OZK: 2 bullish / 0 bearish / 1 neutral. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on ONB is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On OZK it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare ONB and OZK with others
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality (30%), Value (30%), Momentum (25%) and Risk (15%). Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.